Scott: slow moving storms mainly inland this evening. The weekend?

The weekend is looking hot and humid once again. Highs in the mid to low 90s. A pretty good chance of rain tomorrow. Could see a few showers early as well as in the afternoon. Sunday slightly drier but still a chance of rain in the afternoon/evening.

Tropics fairly quiet. A few waves out in the Atlantic. Nothing organizing for the next several days.. Enjoy!

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A Hot Weekend

An isolated storm this weekend and continued hot. -Jim

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Record-Breaking Hail

A hail stone weighing nearly two pounds that dropped out of a thunderstorm in South Dakota last week has officially become a record-breaking hailstone!

NOAA's National Climate Extremes Committee, responsible for validating national weather records, declared today that a hailstone found last week in Vivian, S.D., to be the largest in diameter and heaviest ever recovered in the United States.

Found after a July 23, 2010 severe thunderstorm by Vivian resident Les Scott, the hailstone is 8.0 inches in diameter and weighs 1.9375 pounds (1 pound, 15 ounces) with a circumference of 18.62 inches.

These measurements displace the previous hailstone record for weight, previously 1.67 pounds for a stone in Coffeyville, Kan., in 1970.

They also surpass the record for diameter, which was 7 inches for a hailstone found in Aurora, Neb., in 2003. The Aurora hailstone still holds the record for circumference of 18.75 inches.

Check out the link to the National Weather Service office in Aberdeen, S.D. for pictures of this huge hailstone!

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=abr&storyid=55671&source=0

Rain ending

Warm and dry tonight then hot and mainly dry tomorrow. Details at 11-
Jim

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A Hot Week Continues

Isolated storms will end before midnight.  Plan on a mainly hot and mostly dry day with one or two strong thunderstorms on Friday - Jim

Rain ending

Punta Gorda had the most today, 2.50" from Weather watcher John. Hot
again tomorrow with perhaps fewer big storms. - Jim

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HOT

Hot days are likely all week with a heat index near 105 degrees. An afternoon or evening thunderstorm is also possible through the weekend. - Jim

Brian: Tropical activity back on the upswing next week...

Good morning! I'm headed on vacation for the rest of the week but I did want to post a quick note that it still looks like everything is in line for tropical activity in the Atlantic to undergo a fairly significant upswing as we head through the first week of August. The rest of this week should be quiet but all of our models continue to suggest (non-specifically, of course) that there will be several areas worth watching during the first couple of weeks of August. First up will be a tropical wave that likely will head in our direction for the middle of next week (around Wednesday) and bring us an increase in the chance of rain.

 

More coming in the days ahead!

 

Brian

Brian: Isolated storms this afternoon & hot... heat index 102 - 108 degrees!

Good morning! With a strong area of high pressure sitting overhead, it will be a hot and humid afternoon with temperatures climbing into the mid 90's. When you factor in the high dewpoints, it will feel like 102 - 108 degrees later today. Yesterday, we ended up with a few more storms than expected (and I even went with a forecast wetter than the models suggested yesterday!). There is still a lot of moisture in the atmosphere and despite the tendency for the air to sink underneath an area of high pressure, I'm going with high-end isolated rain chances this afternoon. I think the best chance of rain will be along and south of the Caloosahatchee later this afternoon.

 

Tomorrow, as a front moves into the southeast, the chance of rain will likely be at its lowest for the week. Expect a higher chance of rain on Friday, but mainly inland as the steering currents become north-northwest.

 

Here is today's outlook:

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 94
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 96
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 96
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 95
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 95
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 96
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 94
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 95

 

Have a good Wednesday!

 

Brian

Brian: Isolated storms next 4 afternoons... highs in the low to mid 90's...

Good afternoon! I'm still leaving the chance of rain a little higher than our forecast models suggest for this afternoon, but the coverage in storms should be isolated across the area as drier air has moved into the mid levels of the atmosphere. As the Gulf breeze kicks in, expect a few showers and storms to develop mainly nearly I-75 and then move offshore into the early evening. A similar set up is in the forecast for tomorrow before a trend toward more inland storms builds for Thursday and especially Friday.

 

What about the tropics? The tropical Atlantic should remain quiet, as expected, for the next week or so. A lot of dry air is dominating the Atlantic right now and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (a pattern of upward/downward motion that moves eastward through the tropics) is currently in a "sinking" phase across most of the Atlantic basin. The MJO, as it's known, is expected to enter a prolonged "upward" phase in the Atlantic starting after the first week in August. This favors enhanced tropical activity in the basin. Also, our forecast models (ensembles) point toward increased activity after August 1st -- so this looks like a safe bet. No specifics yet, though; stay tuned!

 

Brian

Brian: Hot & humid today, highs in the mid 90's...

Good morning! Temps are starting around 80 this morning through most of the area meaning that, despite an afternoon Gulf breeze that will settle in early this afternoon, we should see temps climb toward the mid 90's. Today's numbers:

 

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 92
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 94
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 94
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 93
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 94
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 95
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 94
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 93

 

Brian

Brian: Drier air will move into southwest Florida later today/tomorrow...

Good morning! Showers and storms will develop along the Gulf breeze this afternoon (which should have no problem developing again today, just like yesterday). There was actually a somewhat surprising lack of thunderstorm activity yesterday given the active Gulf breeze and plenty of tropical moisture in the atmosphere. The evening sounding (weather balloon) at Tampa -- taken at 8 pm last night -- still shows over 2" of what we call precipitable water in the air! Compared to the 1.5-1.75" or so over in southeast Florida, the atmosphere was juicy here but just didn't produce all that many storms.

 

The flow turns more easterly and northeasterly aloft today which should allow the drier air now over Florida's east coast and the Bahamas to push into the western half of the peninsula. I have rain chances a bit higher today than our forecast models suggest, but still in the isolated category today. With weak flow otherwise, the Gulf breeze should punch far enough inland to, at least initially, set off the best chances of rain near I-75 by early to mid afternoon. Highs today will run into the mid 90's.

 

Even drier for Wednesday before the steering currents change on Thursday to start to favor more inland storms for a couple of days. More coming on WINK in less than 10!

 

Brian

a PM Storm or Two

Look for a "normal" weather pattern this week.  If anything, it might be a little hotter and drier than average. - Jim

Brian: Storms & showers this afternoon.. drier for mid-week..

Good morning! The new forecast models are trickling in and this afternoon's forecast looks to be on track. The morning soundings (weather balloons) indicate a still very moist and unstable atmosphere and with afternoon Gulf/Lake breezes, we should have no problem seeing plenty of storms develop later. With a light wind, expect highs today to average in the low 90's throughout most of southwest Florida today. Drier air will move in from the Atlantic tomorrow, but not as dry as last week (we'll still see afternoon showers & storms.. just fewer of them!).

 

Brian

Brian: Scattered PM Storms today, more along the coast... high of 92...

Here is today's forecast for cities and counties across southwest Florida. Enjoy the dry, hazy, sunny start to the day because clouds will increase by midday ahead of an increasing chance of showers and storms!

Naples  Increasing Clouds  PM Storms; High 90
Bonita Springs Increasing Clouds  PM Storms; High 92
Fort Myers Increasing Clouds  PM Storms; High 92
Cape Coral Increasing Clouds  PM Storms; High 91 
Port Charlotte Increasing Clouds  PM Storms; High 91
Hendry Co. Sun & Clouds  Mainly PM Storms; High 93
Glades Co. Sun & Clouds  Mainly PM Storms; High 92
DeSoto Co. Increasing Clouds  PM Storms; High 92

 

Have a great Monday!

 

Brian

Brian: Rainy season pattern back in place... scattered PM storms, near 92

Good morning! For the next couple of days, the typical rainy season pattern continues its resumption with morning sunshine giving way to afternoon showers and storms. Highs through Wednesday will run in the lower 90's. The wind will be pretty light each day, allowing the Gulf breeze to develop. This is important because it will limit the potential for excessively high temperatures this week (unlike last when we had the strong east wind for a lot of the week!). Today will be the wettest day of the next 3, with drier air pushing in from the Atlantic for Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

Looking toward the end of the week, the wind at the steering levels will become northwest; this will allow for showers and storms to move toward inland areas each day.

 

This should be a pretty quiet week in the tropics as it relates to southwest Florida. Dry air covers a lot of the Atlantic again and all of our models have pointed toward no real areas to watch until we get toward the weekend when a tropical wave should be moving toward the northeast Caribbean. The models have been consistent on this for the past several days, so it will be something worth watching.

 

Brian

Brian: TD Bonnie moving offshore.. WNW of Marco Island...

Expect some isolated showers/storms to linger overnight with a bit of a breeze, but nothing very strong. A wetter than average rainy season pattern awaits tomorrow with widespread afternoon and early evening showers and storms.

 

Brian

Bonnie is a depression

A few showers tonight and this weekend, fairly typical for July. - Jim

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Brian: Scattered rain moving through southwest Florida this morning... more coming later...

Brian: Tides will run a bit normal average tomorrow morning.. below normal today...

Generally offshore wind today will lead to below normal tides this afternoon. For tomorrow morning's high tide, expect tides to run a bit above average (perhaps 1-2 feet) as Bonnie moves to our west and the wind shifts around to an onshore direction.

 

Brian

Brian: Showers & storms become more numerous later today.. as Bonnie moves toward S Fla

Good morning! Tropical Storm Bonne's strength is unchanged as of the 5 AM advisory from NHC as now southerly and southeasterly wind shear is disrupting its attempt at organization. As we've been telling you all week, though, regardless of organization our forecast in southwest Florida really doesn't change. Expect showers and storms to become more widespread later on today as Bonnie pushes toward far south Florida and the Keys. The windiest/wettest effects of the storm should arrive late this afternoon and into this evening; by tomorrow, we're back to just an above average rainy season pattern with widespread storms by Saturday afternoon. Today's forecast:

Naples  Mostly Cloudy  Mainly PM Storms; High 88
Bonita Springs Mostly Cloudy  Mainly PM Storms; High 89
Fort Myers Mostly Cloudy  Mainly PM Storms; High 88
Cape Coral Mostly Cloudy  Mainly PM Storms; High 88
Port Charlotte Mostly Cloudy  Mainly PM Storms; High 89
Hendry Co. Mostly Cloudy  Storms Likely; High 88
Glades Co. Mostly Cloudy  Storms Likely; High 87
DeSoto Co. Mostly Cloudy  Mainly PM Storms; High 88

 

Brian

Brian: Bonnie remains a 40 mph tropical storm as of 5 AM advisory...

Brian: TS Warning all of southwest Florida... expect gusts to near TS force later today/tonight...

Bonnie is located near Andros Island in the Bahamas this morning. HH's are in there now getting new data but so far, looks like it remains about a 40 mph tropical storm. I believe the track will be a bit farther to the north now and likely over the Florida peninsula, perhaps through Collier County. This shouldn't change the forecast much... just expect periods of rain the next several hours (especially this afternoon/evening), some heavy with some strong gusts in spots.

 

Brian

Brian: First rain bands of Bonnie moving through Hendry/Collier Counties...

Bonnie, I'm not impressed

TS Bonnie is getting closer, but it is not impressive. It will rain
here tomorrow and this weekend, but we are used to that.

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Bonnie is Born, don't worry

Tropical Depression 3 became Tropical Storm Bonnie at 6:15pm when an Air Force Recon plane found 43knot wind east of the center.  This doesn't change our weather forecast for SW Florida.  More clouds, a breeze and rain (some heavy) will be possible tomorrow.  A normal summer pattern will return Saturday and Sunday. - Jim

Brian: Tropical storm warning Bonita Beach southward... Bonnie likely later today...

A tropical storm warning is in effect from Bonita Beach south through Collier County as Tropical Depression 2, soon to be Bonnie, approaches south Florida and the Keys. A Hurricane Hunter plane is currently en route to TD2 and I expect (based on satellite) them to find tropical storm force wind in the storm.. certainly through the northern half of the storm. As far as what to expect in southwest Florida, here's our forecast:

 

• Wind: Sustained 15-20 mph, gusts to near tropical storm force across Collier County
• Tides: Below normal for the Gulf beaches, above normal for the Bays
• Rain: 1-3", locally higher amounts in Collier County

We'll keep you updated both here and on WINK/6TV!

 

Brian

Tropical Depression #3 Has Formed in the Atlantic

At 11am this morning, Tropical Depression #3 formed in the Atlantic near the Bahamas. The depression is currently 405 miles east-southeast of Key Largo, Florida with maximum sustained winds at 35 mph. Movement of Tropical Depression #3 is to the west-northwest at 15 mph with an increase in forward speed likely within the next 48 hours.

An Air Force Reconnaissance plane is currently en route to investigate the system which may strengthen to a tropical storm later today. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the Florida East Coast from Golden Beach southward including the Keys and along the West Coast northward to Bonita Beach. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected in the warned area within 36 hours.

Brian: Tropical depression or Tropical Storm as of 11 AM... SWFL will be in forecast cone...

Quick update: The National Hurricane Center will initiate advisories on either a tropical depression or tropical storm starting at 11 AM this morning; these advisories will be for the wave near the eastern Bahamas this morning. Most likely, based on the satellite data I see, this will be Tropical Storm Bonnie as of 11 AM and southwest Florida will likely be included in the forecast cone. Again, our forecast is essentially unchanged in terms of what we can expect here -- with rainy/breezy weather from Friday afternoon through Saturday. Much more on 6 TV in just minutes.

 

Brian

Brian: Also watching a tropical disturbance in SW Gulf.. headed toward Mexico.. some development poss.

Brian: NHC -- High chance of tropical cyclone development next 48 hours... tropical wave near Bahamas...

Along the lines of what I've been talking about on air/here in the blog, once the environmental conditions become more favorable for development (as expected later today), it probably won't take much to get this to become a TD or even a weak tropical storm. To emphasize though, even if this becomes an organized system, the forecast for southwest Florida is effectively no different. Expect a period of rainy/breezy weather from Friday afternoon through Saturday. More coming on 6 TV.

 

Brian

Brian: Strongest wind/heaviest rain with wave located on northern side of wave...

A picture is worth a thousand words: the above image is (essentially) a satellite composite of the wind field in our tropical wave. Satellite data indicates the strongest wind is located (and always has been) north of the center -- notice the green contours indicating wind greater than 20 knots, and in some cases above 30 knots (35 mph or so). This is why I expect some stronger wind gusts/breezy weather for us Friday into Saturday as well as wet weather -- it will be the northern part of this system that affects southwest Florida.

 

Brian

Brian: Last dry/extra hot day for a while... mid 90's this afternoon...

Good morning! Dry air is in place for one more afternoon across southwest Florida leading to very low (if at all) rain chances and hot temperatures. It'll be breezy again this afternoon as well with gusts above 20 mph. Changes arrive tomorrow as the tropical wave pushes into the region. Today's numbers:

 

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 95
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 95
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 95
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 95
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 95
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 93
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 92
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 93

 

Have a great Thursday!

 

Brian

Brian: Tropical wave remains disorganized, but rain/storms still on the way...

The tropical wave we've been watching for the last several days remains disorganized this morning over the eastern Bahamas. There has been an increase in thunderstorms overnight, but these storms are still located only on the northern and eastern side of the storm because of strong southwesterly wind shear. This wind shear is expected to abate some over the next 24 hours and that may allow for some slow organization to take place as the wave approaches south Florida and the Florida Straits. That said, any slow organization will not change the forecast for us in southwest Florida. The stronger wind/rain is on the northern side of the wave; this is the part of the wave that should effect us. We expect an increase in rain/storms into Friday afternoon and Saturday. More on WINK in minutes!

 

For today, enjoy another mainly dry and hot afternoon as temperatures climb toward the mid 90's! A strong breeze will be around again, as well, with gusts above 20 mph later today.

 

Brian

New Tropical Disturbance

A new Tropical wave is in the SW Gulf. It will produce rain and drift
westward toward Mexico.

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...fixed spelling...S. Florida

An upper low and dry air are NOT enablers for rapid development.  Another hot, mainly dry day is likely tomorrow.  A better chance of rain arrives Friday and Saturday as the wave moisture interacts with the upper low, which will be over S. Florida by then.. - Jim

Tropical Wave, yawn....Nothing has changed in my thinking on the tropical wave

An upper low and dry air are NOT enablers for rapid development.  Another hot, mainly dry day is likely tomorrow.  A better chance of rain arrives Friday and Saturday as the wave moisture interacts with the upper low, which will be over ZS. Florida by then.. - Jim

Brian: Recon mission into Invest 97L postponed until tomorrow...

Given the large, but poorly organized appearance of Invest 97L this morning, the National Hurricane Center has postponed a planned recon mission by the Hurricane Hunters today. The mission is now scheduled to take place tomorrow (and likely will as the environment becomes more favorable for organization/development of this tropical wave). As I mentioned earlier, we should carefully watch the new convection (thunderstorms) that are firing over the Virgin Islands this morning. These are located in a low-shear environment and well removed from the dry air over the Bahamas; it is possible a new area of low pressure could develop here later today and become "the" one to watch.

 

Brian

Brian: Mainly dry weather continues for 2 more days...

Good morning! Hot and mainly dry weather continues through Thursday with strong high pressure anchored across the southeast. Underneath this high, the air is sinking -- both warming it up and drying it out as it sinks. In fact, it became so dry near the ground yesterday afternoon that the showers and storms that did develop had a lot of difficulty even putting a few raindrops on the ground. What happened? You may have noticed what looked like rain falling from the sky but evaporating before reaching the ground -- this is known as virga. What you also likely felt were strong gusts of wind; as these raindrops evaporated, the air cooled and quickly sank -- ultimately pushing rapidly outward in all directions. A similar set up is expected for today and tomorrow.

 

By Friday, the ridge of high pressure won't weaken so much as it will help steer a tropical wave in our general direction. Right now, I think many of our models are likely bringing this wave too far to the north (i.e. over the FL peninsula) given the strength of the high. This is still very much up for debate though as we won't have a solid idea until (and if) we get a defined center of circulation with this wave. That said, I still think we'll see an increase in our chance of rain as we move into Friday afternoon and Saturday as the wave crosses the Florida Straits and far south Florida. It is possible this system could be more organized as it approaches the area; upper level wind becomes more favorable for development near the Bahamas in about 36 hours. Right now, the tropical wave is feeling the effects of both some dry air and wind shear.

 

Brian

Brian: Near record high temperatures expected this afternoon.. mainly dry & breezy

Some record highs for today include:

 

Fort Myers 97 (Set in 1942)

Naples 95 (Set in 1981)

 

Today's forecast high is for 96 at Fort Myers and a record-tying high temperature of in Naples. Hot weather continues on Thursday and then we start watching the tropical wave in the Caribbean. More coming on WINK in about 2 minutes!

 

Brian

Brian: Large tropical wave remains somewhat disorganized...

Good morning! I'm still watching a very large tropical wave this morning located over Hispanolia, Puerto Rico, and the Leeward Islands. In fact -- in a region of much weaker wind shear -- thunderstorm activity is actually much more robust this morning well east of where the apparent center of low pressure is now. This will be a trend to watch later today as sometimes developing systems like to relocate their centers multiple times toward areas of sustained convection.

 

As for the foreacst model tracks, don't pay too much attention to them yet as the models often struggle with the placing/timing of a system until there's actually a center of low pressure to track (there's really not here yet). That said, I still expect the chance of rain/storms to increase as we move toward late Friday and into Saturday.

 

More coming later!

 

Brian

Tropical wave not organizing- Jim

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HOT

We are watching a tropical disturbance near the Dominican Republic.  It should move in the general direction of Florida and it could bring clouds and rain our way by Friday and the Weekend.  In the mean time, it will be mostly dry and hot tomorrow and Thursday with a heat index near 107 degrees. - Farrell

Brian: NHC upgrades 97L to high probability of development in next 48 hours...

Brian: Large tropical wave exiting west coast of Africa.. worth watching over the next few days...

Brian: Noon temps.. 91 Naples, 91 Fort Myers.. no Gulf breeze today; headed for mid 90's...

Brian: Tropical wave Invest 97L remains disorganized...

Good morning! The tropical wave we've been watching for the last few days continues to have a lot of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity with it. Not much has changed in the forecast thinking from earlier; the wave is still fighting very strong wind aloft (wind shear greater than 20 knots just north of the center) as well as being relatively close to land right now. Over the next 48 hours, the wave will be guided on a west-northwest track by an upper level ridge of high pressure; this will put the wave in the vicinity of the Bahamas or northern Cuba by Thursday. At this point, some of our models indicate that wind shear could weaken to the point where organization of the wave could begin to occur but, at this point, it's really not too much to worry about.

 

The bottom line right now? Expect the chance of rain and storms to increase as we head into Friday night and Saturday as the wave (perhaps a more organized system) crosses the Florida Straits and south Florida. Stay tuned!

 

Brian

Brian: INVEST 97L bringing heavy rain to Puerto Rico... more "spin" showing up now on radar/satellite...

Despite some strong wind shear nearby, tropical wave Invest 97L is showing increasing signs of spin -- mostly in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere. Thus far, there is still no real sign of a low level circulation. You can see the radar out of San Juan, Puerto Rico, by clicking here.

 

Brian

Brian: Tropical Disturbance 97L Disorganized Near Puerto Rico

Good morning! The first tropical wave really worth watching here in southwest Florida continues to be a disorganized, but broad, cluster of showers and storms over the northeast Caribbean Sea. There is a surprising amount of convection associated with the wave right now, largely due to the upper level area of low pressure located north of the system. While this wave is producing strong wind shear over the northern half of the wave (greater than 20 knots, essentially prohibitive for any reason organization over the next day or two), it is also helping to carry air away from the tops of some of the thunderstorms. This process, called ventillation, actually fosters new areas of rising area and, in the moist unstable environment where the wave is located, this leads to additional thunderstorm formation. The issue is, though, that the wind shear prevents the storms and moisture from being centered around a specific point -- and until this happens, a circulation really can't develop.

 

In fact, last night's 10 PM satellite pass did find strong wind associated with the wave (notice the bright red colors north of Puerto Rico on the second image, this indicates wind greater than 20 knots) -- however, the wind is all easterly. So, as of right now, there is really no circulation associated with this wave. Over the next 48 hours, though, as this tropical wave moves toward the west-northwest, wind shear is forecast to weaken and this may allow for some slow organization to begin to occur as it approaches the Bahamas.

 

There was a shift north in our forecast models; although, this may be temporary given the strength of the ridge of high pressure located across the southeast. Our tropical forecast models indicate a general track toward the WNW placing the wave near the Florida Straits or south Florida by late in the week. As far as strength, right now, only slow organization is expected given the strong upper level wind pattern but it's really much too early to say right now.

 

At the least, expect an increase in the chance of showers and storms by Friday as the wave approaches. Of course, we'll continue following it for you over the next few days!

 

Brian

Brian: Today's Fort Myers record = 101.. forecast high = 95..

Good morning! It will be hot today with temperatures in the mid 90's, but not quite record breaking heat as today's records are near 100 degrees. That said, with humidity values in the afternoon near 40-50%, it will feel like around 105 this afternoon. Here is today's forecast:

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 95
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 96
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 95
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 95
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 96
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 93
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 92
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 94

 

Brian

Brian: Hot & mainly dry next few days; watching the tropics this morning as well...

Good morning! A lot going on this morning as some of the hottest air of the season will move into southwest Florida with a strong ridge of high pressure. Expect only isolated storms for today and mainly dry weather tomorrow as temperatures climb toward the mid to upper 90's. With the humidity, it will feel like 105 degrees+ each afternoon! I'm also watching a tropical wave that, while disorganized, is broad and features a lot of thunderstorms this morning near Puerto Rico. This could play a big role in the late week/weekend forecast. I'll have the latest starting on WINK in less than 10!

 

Brian

Drier than average

It looks like we will be in a drier than average rainfall pattern through Thursday with an increase in storm activity late Friday through the weekend. - Jim

Brian: Mainly dry and hot today; highs in the mid 90's...

High pressure and dry air are teaming together to keep things quiet for the next 4 days. It'll be an unusual July stretch of mainly dry weather across southwest Florida with the chance of rain not increasing until we get into Friday afternoon. A tropical wave will be approaching south Florida by then; I'll have the latest on that coming up on WINK-TV in just a couple of minutes.

 

Brian

Brian: Tropical wave in NE Caribbean worth watching... Invest 97L

Good morning! As we talked about last week, we're going to see an uptick in activity this week in the tropical Atlantic as wind shear slackens basin-wide and a pulse of upward motion moves through much of the Atlantic. Put all of this together and, at the very least, a pattern toward quite a bit of thunderstorm activity (whether organized or not) is in the forecast this week in the Atlantic.

 

This morning, there are two areas we're watching. One is located in the central Caribbean, a little southeast of Jamaica. Upper level wind is favorable for development in this part of the Caribbean and slow organization is expected as this wave moves generally westward toward Central America. With a ridge of high pressure in control across the southern tier of the United States, though, this wave poses no threat at all to Florida or the Gulf of Mexico.

 

Another wave, though, could be a different story. This wave is now located a little northeast of Puerto Rico and is producing a flare up of thunderstorms this morning. An upper level low is centered northwest of here, though, and this is producing unfavorably strong (greater than 30 knots) of wind shear from much of Florida through the Bahamas. As a result, any organization of this wave is expected to be slow as it moves toward the west-northwest. This wave will affect southwest Florida by the end of the week and into the weekend; the only question is whether it's just as a tropical wave or a more organized system. Most of our models still forecast wind shear to be too strong to allow for any organization but it will have to be monitored closely as it approaches the Bahamas at mid-week and wind shear does weaken. The water in the Florida Straits/Bahamas region is very warm and if upper level wind weakens, this wave will be worth watching closely.

 

More coming up later this morning!

 

Brian

Brian: Drier than average for July next 4 days...

Good morning! I just finished up today's city/county forecast; here are the numbers for today.

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 93
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 94
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 93
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 93
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 93
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 93

Brian

Brian: A few storms this afternoon, then a pretty hot/dry week ahead!

Good morning! Showers and storms are moving away from our coast this morning and out into the open waters of the Gulf. We'll start the day with a mostly sunny sky and finish it partly to mostly cloudy as showers and storms develop again later this afternoon. Once we get through this afternoon, though, a strong area of high pressure builds over much of the southern tier of the country keeping our weather hotter and drier than average for mid to late July. Later this week, we'll be watching a tropical wave that right now is affecting the islands of the northeast Caribbean. Right now, upper level wind is not favorable for development. Later in the week though, as the wave approaches the Bahamas, it is possible that upper level wind will become more favorable and the system will bear watching. Either way, I expect the chance of rain to move upward as we approach the weekend.

 

Much more on your forecast coming up on WINK starting at 5. Have a great Monday!

 

Brian

View the International Space Station Passing By...

With only a few clouds in this evening's forecast, we should get a good view of the International Space Station cruising 221 miles above the Earth and passing across the western sky! The ISS can be viewed at 8:47 pm this evening and will be visible for 4 minutes. The ISS will be similar in appearance to a star second only in brightness to the planet Venus. So be sure to check it out!

And if you capture any pictures of the ISS passing over SWFL, send them to weather@winktv.com!
Lauren

If you miss out tonight, the International Space Station can be sighted again Sunday night at 9:14 pm and will be visible for 2 minutes.

Scott: drier weather for your Saturday? I think so..

Watching some dry air in the middle atmosphere move over head Saturday and into early Sunday. Could we see NO rain on radar tomorrow? It's hard to completely shut off the rain but if there was any day, tomorrow would be it. Sunday, could see a few storms later in the day. Hot all weekend too, mid 90s!

Tropical wave arrives Monday. More rain then.

Enjoy your weekend!

Sent from Zed's iPhone

La Nina Has Arrived

As many forecast models predicted would occur, La Nina conditions have now taken over in the equatorial Eastern Pacific. Sea surface temperatures in this region of the eastern Pacific have cooled to 0.7 degrees Celsius below the average. The threshold which defines the onset of a La Nina event is 0.5 degrees Celsius below the average thus weak La Nina conditions are now in progress. The timing of the development of this La Nina is certainly less than desirable, as typically both the number and intensity of tropical systems in the Atlantic tend to increase during La Nina events.

Lauren

Brian: Offshore showers and storms this morning, partly cloudy now.. temps near 80

Brian: Hazy morning sun, scattered PM storms; Highs in the mid 90's today...

Good morning! Tropical moisture has arrived this morning with our morning soundings (profiles of temperature, moisture, and wind through the depth of the atmosphere) showing around 2.5" of water above any given location in southwest Florida! This should help produce heavier downpours this afternoon as our showers and storms develop -- first inland, then along the coast to finish the day. The tropical moisture will move out into the Gulf of Mexico tonight and this should lead to a bit of a drier/sunnier day on Friday before more tropical moisture arrives on Saturday. This is all part of a pattern that will feature the arrival of tropical waves every 2-3 days with bouts of dry air in between.

 

Over the weekend, the drier day -- by far -- looks to be Sunday with just isolated storms in the afternoon forecast. As a result, expect a hot day to finish the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 90's! Another wave will arrive on Monday and Tuesday with yet another tropical wave approaching the area by late next week. The next wave could be one to watch a bit more closely as upper level wind/moisture profiles in the Atlantic should become more favorable for development as the week goes on next week.

 

In the meantime, here's today's forecast:

Naples  Increasing Clouds  PM Storms; High 93
Bonita Springs Increasing Clouds  PM Storms; High 95
Fort Myers Increasing Clouds  PM Storms; High 94
Cape Coral Increasing Clouds  PM Storms; High 93
Port Charlotte Increasing Clouds  PM Storms; High 93
Hendry Co. Increasing Clouds  PM Storms; High 93
Glades Co. Increasing Clouds  PM Storms; High 92
DeSoto Co. Increasing Clouds  PM Storms; High 94

Have a great Thursday!

 

Brian

Brian: Showers/storms on eastern side of Lake O now.. headed for Moore Haven & Clewiston...

Brian: Widespread showers & storms on east coast, headed westward...

Showers and storms are widespread at this hour across the eastern half of Florida and are headed westbound as a tropical wave moves across the peninsula today. Expect showers and storms to begin developing mainly inland over the next hour or two and then developing along the coast by mid afternoon. Most areas will see the opportunity for some downpours this afternoon as the tropical wave moves by. This wave will linger tomorrow meaning another chance of widespread afternoon showers and storms. I'm also watching another tropical wave that right now is over Hispanolia; this wave will have the opportunity to move toward southwest Florida later on Friday into Saturday. I have your full forecast on 6 TV in just a few minutes.. hope you can join us!

 

Brian

Brian: Tropics Still Quiet at Mid-Week

Good morning! The tropical Atlantic remains relatively quiet at mid-week and is expected to remain quiet (not abnormal, by the way, for the month of July) through the weekend. There are several waves I'm watching, but none at this point look like candidates to develop anytime soon. Most certainly, not the western most two waves -- one just east of Florida this morning and another east of the Bahamas; both of these waves are located in high wind shear environments not supportive of tropical development. The wave farther out in the Atlantic though ("Mid-Week" wave), might be more interested as it tracks WNW-ward across the Atlantic. However, dry air is still expected to be in place across the western Atlantic and wind shear may still run a bit too high for any real development as this wave approaches the Bahamas and eventually Florida into the middle part of next week.

 

Overall, though, the trend continues to look to be toward more activity during the last 10 days of July. The wind shear pattern is weakening (image 2) in general across the Atlantic andis is a pattern more conducive for tropical development. The trick will be how long does the dry, dusty, desert air (image 3) continue to come off of Africa. With such an active early "African wave train," the dry air that was pretty far south in the eastern Atlantic has been eroded some over the past couple of days. These waves are expected to continue to push every couple of days off of Africa -- a sign of things to come later in the season.

 

Brian

Brian: More storms in this afternoon's forecast; highs in the lower 90's

Good morning! A weak tropical wave will move through Florida today and tomorrow, allowing for more afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop. Since yesterday, the steering level wind -- about 2 miles above the ground -- has become northeasterly/easterly, and this will allow showers and storms to begin the afternoon inland and finish the day along the coast. So, today we see a full return to a typical steering pattern for this time of year.

 

By late tomorrow, the wave and associated tropical moisture will move out into the Gulf of Mexico.This will lead to a briefly lower chance of rain on Friday before it rises again with some additional tropical moisture that will just barely clip the southern part of Florida on Saturday. Finally, on Sunday, that dry air that's dominating the Atlantic now will get a chance to move over southwest Florida and we'll see just isolated storms.

 

Several tropical waves will be moving toward Florida into next week; I'll have more on that in a post later this morning. First, today's forecast:

Naples  Sun & Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Bonita Springs Sun & Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Fort Myers Sun & Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Cape Coral Sun & Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Port Charlotte Sun & Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Hendry Co. Sun & Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Glades Co. Sun & Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
DeSoto Co. Sun & Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 92

 

Have a great day!

 

Brian

Brian: Plenty of clouds, not much rain yet...

Good morning! A lot of moisture is in place across southwest Florida but, so far, not much in the way of rain. There is just one isolated shower showing up on radar this morning over the southeast part of the Cape Haze peninsula as I write this. I do expect showers and storms to get going though as we push toward the afternoon and the Gulf breeze/outflow boundaries get going across the area. The chance of rain should pick up a bit more tomorrow, especially along the coast, as moisture with a tropical wave moves by.

 

There will not be any development with this wave before it reaches Florida. After crossing the peninsula, it will move out into the Gulf and a couple of our short range models are trying to spin up low pressure. This seems unlikely at this point, though, as much of the wave energy will be pulled into the northeast Gulf and eventually back over the southeast with an oncoming trough of low pressure into the eastern US. Either way, it looks like a return toward some (at least slightly) drier air is in the forecast for Friday into the weekend.

 

Brian

Brian: Partly cloudy & warm to start, near 80.. a few more storms this afternoon..

Good morning! The trend toward wetter weather will continue today across southwest Florida with a few more showers and storms developing. These storms will have the chance to begin this morning along the coast and then slowly move around during the afternoon as a transition to a more typical steering pattern begins. Expect more afternoon showers and storms on Wednesday and Thursday as some tropical moisture moves in from the east. Since the steering flow will be easterly, though, that chance of rain will come later in the day.

 

Here is today's forecast:

 

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Scattered Storms; High 90
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Scattered Storms; High 92
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Scattered Storms; High 91
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Scattered Storms; High 91
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Scattered Storms; High 92
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered Storms; High 92
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered Storms; High 91
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered Storms; High 90

 

Enjoy your Tuesday!

 

Brian

Gulf breeze

A gulf breeze will allow for isolated rain today and tomorrow.  A better chance of rain seems likely Wednesday. - Jim

Brian: Showers and storms moving inland along and north of the Caloosahatchee...

A wetter weather pattern has returned to southwest Florida with more clouds than sun and scattered storms along and north of the Caloosahatchee. The best chance of rain later today will shift east of I-75 as the westerly steering flow carries rain chances toward the Lake. Tomorrow, the moisture sticks around but the steering flow changes: it becomes easterly, meaning PM showers and storms move toward the coast.

 

Brian

Brian: A Quiet Week Expected in Tropical Atlantic

Isn't that headline alone great news? After a fairly active last 2-3 weeks in the Atlantic (one hurricane, one tropical depression), the tropical Atlantic will go into a short slumber this week as wind shear and dry, dusty, desert air dominates the Atlantic basin. Most of the thunderstorms this morning are suppressed very far to the south in the Atlantic, within the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the central and eastern Atlantic and in the far southern Caribbean Sea. Because of strong high pressure, anything that tries to develop in the southern Caribbean will be guided toward Central America and out into the Pacific.

 

The Saharan Air Layer (top image - orange = dry), or SAL, covers much of the Atlantic from the eastern Caribbean to the African coast. This burst of dry, dusty air from the Sahara Desert is being pushed eastward by a strong area of high pressure located over the central Atlantic. This high will weaken, though, as we head toward the end of the week so the dry air over the Atlantic should abate. Incidentally, some of that dry, dusty air will push into southwest Florida by late this week (lower left hand panel of the forecast model I posted -- image 2 -- is moisture at 10,000 feet.. orange = dry).

 

All signs continue to point to next week being one to watch in the Atlantic as the air moistens in the Atlantic and the wind shear weakens. Several of our models have indicated the possibility for multiple developments starting next weekend onward and we'll be watching closely. Nothing specific yet, but there should be much more to track in about 7 days! In the meantime, enjoy the respite!

 

Brian

Brian: Few showers crossing Charlotte Harbor...

We still have a few light showers in south Charlotte County this morning, crossing the Harbor and headed toward US-41 and I-75. These showers are well south of Punta Gorda and should fall apart as they exit Charlotte Harbor and move into mainland Charlotte County. All of the shower activity should be over with by the time we get to 9 am.

 

Brian

Brian: Isolated showers continue to move out of Gulf toward Lee Island Coast/Cape Haze...

These isolated showers should dissipate after sunrise as the air begins to stablize out across the Gulf of Mexico. Over the next hour or two, though, I can't rule out a shower or two affecting places like Captiva, Pine Island, or the Cape Haze Peninsula.

 

Brian

Brian: Isolated showers falling apart over Lee/Charlotte Coast as they come onshore...

 

Brian: A few isolated showers popping up near mouth of Charlotte Harbor this morning...

Our radar is showing some light rain near Gasparilla and Boca Grande this morning as the light onshore flow just above the ground helps steer a couple of showers toward the Charlotte/Lee line. Otherwise, we'll get off to a dry start this morning with, again, only isolated inland showers/storms later this afternoon.

 

Brian

Brian: A warm start this morning... temps near 80 at coast... a few more storms later today

Good Monday morning! Hope you had a chance to enjoy the basically dry weekend across the area; the chance of rain is headed upward over the next couple of days. Today is a bit of a transition day th a few isolated inland storms in the forecast. Again, with a largely onshore flow, highs will range from near 90 right at the coast to the mid 90's inland. For tomorrow and Wednesday, the flow turns more easterly and this should help add some additional Atlantic moisture into the mix. Expect scattered storms moving toward the beaches Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 90's. Another batch of drier air gets here as we move toward the weekend; I'll have more on that coming up later this morning. First, today's outlook:

Naples  Partly Cloudy; High 90
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy; High 92
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy; High 92
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy; High 91
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy; High 92
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 94
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 93
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 92

 

Have a great Monday!

 

Brian

A deck of high clouds has been moving south across the area...

those high clouds are associated with the anvils of thunderstorms that have been pushing through central Florida this afternoon. As far as storms in SWFL, only a couple be found...a rarity for a July day! Not going to rule out the possibility of an isolated shower or storm generated by the outflow boundaries produced by the storms to our north, otherwise expect a dry Sunday evening with temperatures in the 80s. The high level cloud deck will slowly deplete through the overnight with mostly clear conditions returning for your Monday morning wake-up weather.

Have a great evening!
Lauren

Another Drier than Average Day in Store for Sunday

Drier conditions in the atmosphere will again result in reduced rain chances for our Sunday...a great day to hit the beach or sit poolside as temperatures will climb into the low 90s along the coast to mid 90s inland. Expect sunshine to start the day with partly cloudy conditions developing for the afternoon with only isolated storms forming, mainly inland.

The tropics are quiet.

Have a great Sunday!
Lauren

A Much Different Start to This Weekend...

than last weekend when we had the dreary, cloudy and rainy conditions but today much of SWFL enjoyed a healthy dose of sunshine! A few showers and thunderstorms will linger inland for the next couple of hours otherwise expect a beautiful Saturday evening up and down the coastline with a clear sky and warm temperatures in the 80s.

Enjoy!
Lauren

Would you like to ride in my beautiful balloon

Morning weather ballons are up, up and away and the sensors they carry report that the air is very dry for this time of the year.  As for the weekend, expect sunny, dry mornings with  hot, mainly dry afternoons. - Jim

Brian: Several clusters of storms in lower latitudes, but no signs of anything developing in Atlantic...

Good morning! The trend in the tropical Atlantic continues to be toward upward motion; as a result, there are several clusters thunderstorms spread out along roughly 10 degrees north latitude. North of this latitude, though, the Atlantic is pretty inhospitable to tropical development -- very dry, dusty Saharan air is located across the central and eastern Atlantic and high wind shear is located elsewhere. While it is not entirely out of the question that there could be tropical development at very low latitudes over the next 5 days, none of our forecast models are pointing to that. Either way, the Gulf and the Caribbean are largely shut off right now because of a large, strong area of high pressure located to the north.

 

A non-tropical area of low pressure is spinning east of the Carolinas this morning over some very warm water. It is gaining a more organized, more tropical "looking" structure as I write this but it is simply running out of time to develop as it's about to be picked up by a front moving through the Ohio Valley now.

 

Elsewhere, in the longer range, our ensemble forecast models are pointing toward a period of enhanced tropical activity in the Atlantic starting next weekend and during the third week in July. We'll keep an eye on it as it was these same ensemble models that correctly forecast the trend toward a pattern more favorable for more northward development during the last weeks of June/early July (when both Alex and TD2 formed).

 

Brian

Brian: Big bubble, no trouble.. high pressure dominates, low rain chance/highs in the low to mid 90's...

The strong area of high pressure that brought record highs to the Northeast earlier this week has moved to the south and is now centered over the Southeast this morning. The high has weakened some since earlier in the week but is still strong enough to be muscling all of the low level moisture away from southwest Florida! Expect another drier than average day with just isolated storms late; highs will range from near 90 at the coast to the mid 90's along the US-41/I-75 corridor. Similarly dry weather sticks around for the weekend and, with a change in the steering pattern, the best chance of afternoon and evening storms will shift toward inland southwest Florida. Moisture returns early next week in the form of higher afternoon rain chances by Monday.

 

Here is today's forecast:

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 91
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 94
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 94
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 92
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 94
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 93
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 92
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 92

 

Have a great Friday!

 

Brian

La La Land

Warm up your vocals, I'll explain La La La La Nina at 5pm - Jim

Dry Above

The dry air is still in place so it will be clear and dry tonight through tomorrow morning.  Look for only a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms. - Jim

First U.S. Landfall of a Tropical System This Season Has Occurred

The first U.S. landfall of a tropical system in the 2010 Atlantic
Hurricane Season occurred at 11:15 am this morning. Tropical
Depression #2 formed in the western Gulf of Mexico at 8:00 am this
morning just offshore of the southern Texas/northern Mexican
coastline, and just a mere few hours later made landfall on the
southern end of South Padre Island, Texas.

Tropical Depression #2 currently has winds of 35 mph and is moving to
the northwest at 15 mph. The Depression will continue to bring heavy
rains and gusty winds to portions of southern Texas today, where
flooding may become a concern as the ground remains well saturated
from the rains of Hurricane Alex which made landfall on the
northeastern Mexican coastline as a Category 2 hurricane last week.
Hurricane Alex was the first June hurricane to form in the Atlantic
Basin since 1995.

Have a great day,
Lauren

Brian: Tropical depression 2 still 35 mph as of 8 AM... approaching TX/Mexico coast...

 

Brian: Tropical depression 2 approaching TX/Mexico coast...

Good morning! While you were sleeping last night, the second tropical depression of the season formed in the south-central Gulf of Mexico and is now approaching the north Mexico/south Texas coast this morning. It is a very disorganized system, which is surprising given that it is moving through a very low wind shear environment. Likely inhibiting development though is the relatively cooler water in the western Gulf compared to what it was just a week ago (see the above tropical cyclone heat potential map -- where there were brighter/warmer colors last week, there are color colors this week). This is due to the passage of Hurricane Alex through this region of the Gulf last week, which likely churned upward some of the cooler water from deep below the surface of the Gulf.

 

TD2 has a slim chance to become Tropical Storm Bonnie and, if it's going to do it, it's going to have to happen in the next 6-8 hours as landfall approaches. Officially, the NHC does not bring this onshore as a tropical storm.

 

Anything else to watch in the tropics? There is an area of low pressure off the east coast that some of our models say will try to transition to a subtropical system, but a full transition is unlikely at this point. Elsewhere, a ridge of high pressure sits across much of the Atlantic and Caribbean and likely will remain over the next 5-10 days. This will generally keep any waves suppressed to the south through early next week. Some of our models are keying in on a large tropical wave forecast to exit the west coast of Africa in about 3 days. This wave could be near the northeast Caribbean by mid to late next week.

 

Brian

Brian: Isolated PM storms today, hot with highs in the mid 90's

Good morning! The long-awaited brighter, drier weather has moved into the area and will largely be here through the weekend. Responsible is that very strong area of high pressure aloft -- the same one that has been bringing record (in some places, all-time record!) heat to the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Here in southwest Florida, expect just some isolated storms this afternoon, with most of the area staying dry. Highs will be in the mid 90's with slightly cooler air arriving at the beaches only late as a weak northwest Gulf breeze kicks in. Similar weather pattern sets up tomorrow with just a slightly higher chance of rain. Here is today's forecast:

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 93
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 94
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 94
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 93
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 94
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 92
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 91
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 91

 

Have a great Thursday!

 

Brian

Brian: Tropical depression 2 still poorly organized.. headed toward Texas/Mexico border...

 

New Depression

Tropical Depression #2 has formed over 700 miles from SW Florida.  It will have no effect on our weather as it moves towards South Texas.   Look at our Tropical Tracker at  http://www.winknews.com/  - Jim

Scott: Just a few storms across the area off the coast of Marco moving to the SW! And a few in the Cape.

Slightly drier today and for the rest of the week. This means hot temperatures with less cloud cover and rain. Highs in the middle 90's. The tropics look pretty quiet as well. Watching a area in the Gulf moving away toward Texas. May develop into a depression but it is running out of time. Details on at 5 and join me at 7 on WINK.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Sunshine

Drier conditions have arrived.  Morning weather balloons indicate less moisture over SW Florida.  This will allow for fewer thunderstorms this evening, some sunshine in the morning followed by a few thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. - Jim

Brian: Tropical disturbance (INVEST 96L) moving back out into Gulf of Mexico...

Good morning! The tropical disturbance we were following yesterday in the northwest Caribbean has moved back out over the Gulf of Mexico this morning. After affecting the Yucatan for the past 24 hours, it will now have a chance to reorganize and perhaps strengthen into a depression or tropical storm over the next 36-48 hours before headed toward north Mexico or south Texas late this week.

 

Analysis this morning continues to indicate a good deal of spin in the upper levels of the atmosphere with this system and morning infrared satellite imagery appears to show some low level circulation now as well. We'll have a better grip on the low level look of the storm as the sun comes up and visible satellite becomes useful. The system is going to track over some fairly deep/warm water over the next day or two and wind shear is forecast to be on the very light (5-10 knots or less) side. This should allow the system to organize as it approaches the western Gulf coast. The question will be if there's enough water for it to cross before it reaches land. Most of our tropical forecast models do get 96L to a weak tropical storm before it reaches the western Gulf.

 

Brian

Brian: A hazy start, but sunshine expected this morning... temps in the 70s...

Good morning! A warmer and drier day is in today's forecast. Here are today's forecast numbers:

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 93
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 90
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 90

 

Even drier tomorrow with only the possibility for a few isolated strong storms. The same high that's been bringing record heat to the Northeast the past several days is forcing the drier/warmer air into southwest Florida. It won't get as warm as it is to our north (where highs pushed into the 100 and 105 range from DC to Boston yesterday!), but it will be noticeably hotter compared to the last few days.

 

Much more on your forecast ahead over the next hour on WINK!

 

Brian

Brian: A drier/hotter afternoon in store.. possibility for a few stronger storms..

Drier air has pushed into southwest Florida and we'll start the day with sunshine for the first time in days! Along the Gulf breeze late afternoon, showers and storms will develop -- and with dry air overhead at about 10,000 feet, we'll have the chance for a few stronger storms with gusty wind being the highest possibility. Expect highs today in the lower 90's. Even warmer tomorrow; much more coming up on WINK starting at 5. See you then!

 

Brian

Slooooo Drying

That area of low pressure is dissipating so we will dry out a bit.  Look for a mix of sun and clouds tomorrow with afternoon and evening thunderstorms. - Jim

Brian: 12 Noon Temps... 104 Frederick MD, 100 Atlantic City, 99 Baltimore, 98 Philly, 97 Boston...

Incredible, record-breaking heat is baking the Northeast at this hour with temperatures at or above the 100 degree mark across much of the region! It's already in 100 in Washington, DC, and Atlantic City right now with upper 90's in place from Baltimore north to Boston. Looking at some of the new upper air data, with high pressure overhead it looks likely that much of the region will see highs from 100-105 degrees this afternoon -- near all-time records for parts of the area. The heat should begin to abate some starting tomorrow as high pressure pushes to the south -- although extra hot weather will remain from Philadelphia southward. This is the same high that will eventually bring drier air to southwest Florida starting tonight.

 

Brian

Brian: Tropical disturbance in NW Caribbean flaring up near Yucatan...

Thunderstorms have increased markedly on the western side of the tropical area of low pressure in the northwest Caribbean. These storms are largely over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico right now, so no development is expected over the next 24 hours. It's also very difficult to pick out a center of circulation right now on the visible satellite imagery -- so while thunderstorms are becoming more pronounced, this is still a fairly poorly organized system. Ship reports are indicating wind of 20-30 knots though near this storm, so once this gets into an area more favorable for development (like the Gulf, where it's headed tomorrow), I still don't see any reason why this won't be able to develop.

 

More coming up on WINK..

 

Brian

Brian: Still watching disturbance in NW Caribbean.. crossing Yucatan today...

Good morning! The tropical disturbance in the northwest Caribbean continues to show quite a bit of disorganized thunderstorm activity near its center this morning. It's also being affected by some stronger wind shear on the eastern side of the storm (northerly shear in the eastern Gulf of Mexico); this is likely inhibiting real organization at this point in addition to its proximity to land.

 

The disturbance will move over the northern part of the Yucatan later today and by tomorrow should be back out in the waters of the Gulf of Mexico, a little north of where Alex reemerged about 9 days ago. Remember, the water is very warm in the southwest Gulf, and progressively deeper the farther north you go. Invest 96L will move across the deeper, warmer water and, in a low shear environment, should be able to get more organized as it approaches the lower Texas coast. The second image I've attached is the steering currents and the third is the forecast models; the models are in remarkably good agreement this morning that this tropical moisture is headed toward the Texas coast.

 

Most of our models (the tropical models) do have this becoming a depression or storm in the western Gulf and I believe this will happen. The environment is just too favorable for development. But, like Alex, strong high pressure over the southeast means this is a western Gulf storm and the eastern Gulf remains protected! That said, depending on whether this develops/how strong it gets, higher seas could again affect the oil slick region and we'll be watching that.

 

Brian

Brian: Increasing PM Clouds, Scattered storms.. highs near 90 today..

Good morning! Here are today's forecast numbers; more on your forecast on WINK just seconds away. Have a great Tuesday!

Naples  Increasing Clouds  PM Storms; High 90
Bonita Springs Increasing Clouds  PM Storms; High 91
Fort Myers Increasing Clouds  PM Storms; High 90
Cape Coral Increasing Clouds  PM Storms; High 90
Port Charlotte Increasing Clouds  PM Storms; High 90
Hendry Co. Increasing Clouds  PM Storms; High 91
Glades Co. Increasing Clouds  PM Storms; High 90
DeSoto Co. Increasing Clouds  PM Storms; High 90

 

Brian

Brian: Fewer storms in this afternoon's forecast, even drier by mid-week...

We'll finally start a trend today toward drier weather across southwest Florida as high pressure aloft begins to ridge southward down the peninsula. There's still enough moisture around for scattered storms later today, but there should not be as many of them and they should be quicker movers. It'll be warmer with a mix of clouds and sun; highs in the low 90's. By tomorrow and Thursday, the drier air really takes hold and should limit our rain chances to just a few gusty thunderstorms each afternoon. With the sunnier weather, highs will push toward the mid 90's by Thursday.

 

Also, I'm watching the tropical disturbance in the northwest Caribbean this morning and I'll have the latest on it starting at 5 AM. See you then!

 

Brian

A Cup of Troffee?

A trough of low pressure is nearby, so it is still cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  As the trough dissipates there will be more sun, starting tomorrow (midday). - Jim

Brian: Widespread showers and storms in the Gulf, isolated rain over land right now...

It's been an active morning on radar so far -- but just about all of the storms have been located offshore in the Gulf of Mexico! A few showers are now starting to skirt the north Lee and Charlotte County coastline and a few more isolated showers are approaching Arcadia this morning. Expect these showers and storms to become much more widespread with time this afternoon as a trough of low pressure continues to focus deep moisture across southwest Florida.

 

The newest forecast models continue to point toward (finally) the arrival of drier air starting tomorrow. Showers and storms will still be fairly widespread tomorrow but much less widespread starting on Wednesday. As a result of the drier air, expect much warmer/more seasonable temperatures as afternoon highs climb toward the mid 90's.

 

Much more coming on 6 TV in just minutes!

 

Brian

Brian: Active week possible in the Atlantic..

Good morning! There will be several areas to watch in the tropical Atlantic this week and, incidentally, several of these are very close to Florida (see the NHC 48-hour outlook at the top; yellow = low chance of development, orange = medium chance of development). Two of the areas are located along an old frontal boundary over the southeast, as we talked about last week. This is the same front that is partly responsible for our very unsettled weather pattern over the last several days. The third area is located near the Leeward Islands in the eastern Caribbean; this wave, though, is experiencing high wind shear and is struggling now. The wave to watch, though, is the one located south of Cuba in the northwest Caribbean.

 

Right now, shear over this wave is light and it is located in the deepest, warmest part of the Caribbean. That said, none of our forecast models really ramp up the strength/organization of this wave until it gets into the Gulf of Mexico and, even still, only get it to a tropical storm (except for the Canadian model we look at -- which implies a hurricane headed toward the upper Texas coast later this week). With light wind shear forecast to prevail near this wave over the next few days, I don't see any reason why this won't become our next depression/storm and, once developed, won't intensify steadily once out over the Gulf. Fortunately, Florida remains protected by the strong high pressure area over the eastern United States; so the wave in the NW Caribbean will be forced into the western Gulf just like Alex.

 

More coming as the week goes on with this system.

 

Brian

Brian: Widespread showers & storms this afternoon, drier weather ahead mid-week..

Good morning! I hope you managed to have a great July 4th despite the extra wet weather over the weekend; fortunately, we did dry out in time for fireworks displays for most of southwest Florida! Expect plenty of natural fireworks again today as the pattern remains unsettled for one more day. The atmosphere is loaded with moisture (one field we look at is something called precipitable water -- and at any given time, there's over 2.5" of water in the atmosphere at a given point in southwest Florida!) again leading to some torrential rain in storms today. There is also the possibility of frequent lightning in any storms. Today's forecast:

Naples  Mostly Cloudy  Scattered Mainly PM Storms; High 89
Bonita Springs Mostly Cloudy  Scattered Mainly PM Storms; High 88
Fort Myers Mostly Cloudy  Scattered Mainly PM Storms; High 88
Cape Coral Mostly Cloudy  Scattered Mainly PM Storms; High 87
Port Charlotte Mostly Cloudy  Scattered Mainly PM Storms; High 87
Hendry Co. Mostly Cloudy  Scattered Mainly PM Storms; High 89
Glades Co. Mostly Cloudy  Scattered Mainly PM Storms; High 87
DeSoto Co. Mostly Cloudy  Scattered Mainly PM Storms; High 87

 

Drier air though, finally, is poised to push into southwest Florida. Delayed over the weekend, the dry air will finally push south as high pressure branches down the east coast leading to lower rain chances on Tuesday, and higher temperatures. The chance of storms may even back off into the isolated category by Wednesday and Thursday as temps push toward the mid 90's. Whenever dry air is in place aloft, though, any storms can feature very strong wind and we'll be in the look out for that at mid-week.

 

I'll have more on your forecast on WINK and 6 TV all morning. Hope you can join us.

 

Brian

Scott: dry now but more rain this weekend. 4th of July , hmmm could we stay dry?

Right now it is looking like most of the rain will be done by 8 pm Sunday! Let's hope so for the fireworks.

A developing low in the northern gulf will keep it wet this weekend.. Not to worried about it become a big tropical threat.. Moving west now over the oil spill.

Sent from Zed's iPhone

Scott: wet again folks! Light rain over lee county. Details at 5.

Another wet day Saturday. Looks like this pattern stays with us thru the holiday weekend! Soggy and cloudy. Watching a low near the panhandle trying to develop, this will only add to the rain chances the next several days. Details starting on wink at 5. Join me at 7 on wink!

Sent from Zed's iPhone

Thunder and Lightning

It's unusual, but true.  A weak cold front is in the vicinity of North Florida, close enough to SW Florida to cause increasing clouds with scattered slow moving thunderstorms this weekend. Happy July 4th!  Snap, crackle, pop.- Jim

Brian: Showers starting to develop now across southwest Florida...

A few isolated showers have begun to pop up across southwest Florida and these should become more numerous as the afternoon rolls on. Expect fairly widespread storms today, again with torrential downpours. Highs will be a bit cooler today because of the clouds and all of the moisture left behind from the past few days; highs will be near 90 most spots. Similar weather in your Saturday forecast but it does look like we might trend toward slightly drier weather -- emphasis on slightly -- for July 4th. I'll have the latest details coming up on WINK News at Noon.

 

Brian

Brian: Several areas to watch in Atlantic over next few days..

Good morning! Hurricane Alex is gone (but not forgotten as heavy rain continues to plague parts of central and northern Mexico this morning) and now there are several new areas to watch in the tropical Atlantic. Truly, a remarkable amount of convection (storms) are occurring across the Atlantic for so early in the hurricane season. One area we'll be watching is both the northeast Gulf and the Atlantic just east of Florida as a frontal zone moves over warm water. In fact, already there are signs that low pressure is developing in the northeast Gulf and the National Hurricane Center is giving this a low chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical system in the next 48 hours.

 

Elsewhere, there are 3 separate waves in the central and eastern Atlantic and another strong wave just moving into the southwestern Caribbean. It is this wave that a few of our models key in on as a candidate for development in the western Caribbean over the next 3-6 days.

We'll keep you posted!

 

Brian

Brian: Mostly cloudy today with rain & storms likely.. highs in the low 90's..

Today's forecast numbers:

 

Naples  Mostly Cloudy  PM Storms Likely; High 90
Bonita Springs Mostly Cloudy  PM Storms Likely; High 91
Fort Myers Mostly Cloudy  PM Storms Likely; High 91 
Cape Coral Mostly Cloudy  PM Storms Likely; High 90
Port Charlotte Mostly Cloudy  PM Storms Likely; High 90
Hendry Co. Mostly Cloudy  PM Storms Likely; High 91
Glades Co. Mostly Cloudy  PM Storms Likely; High 90
DeSoto Co. Mostly Cloudy  PM Storms Likely; High 89

 

Stay dry!

 

Brian

Brian: A messy July 4th weekend forecast, rain & storms likely.. maybe a bit drier for the 4th..

It looks like the soggier side is going to win out for the holiday weekend with rain and storms likely, mainy in the afternoon, for today and tomorrow. There are still signs that it might be able to turn just a little bit drier/sunnier for the Fourth; but still plan on widespread showers and storms on Sunday as the really dry air makes it no farther south than north Florida. Fireworks could be an issue for parts of the area on Sunday night, but I still think overall showers and storms will be winding down by the time we hit dusk. I have the latest on your forecast coming up on WINK starting in 10 minutes. Hope you can join us!

 

Brian

Brian: Warmest June on Record in Naples.. 84.6, beats old record of 84.1 set in 1944...

Brian: Alex continues to weaken, now a 50 mph tropical storm... other areas to watch in Atlantic...

Good morning! Alex continues its rapid weakening over the mountainous terrain of central Mexico; it is now a 50 mph tropical storm but still a tremendous rainmaker with significant flooding and mudslides likely across Mexico. By tonight, Alex will be a tropical depression.

 

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, I'm watching a few waves evenly spread out around 10 degrees North latitude; one near 60 West (off the coast of South America), another near 40 West in the central Atlantic and another just coming off the west coast of Africa. A few of our models hint at development in the western Caribbean later this weekend or early next week, and that will be worth watching. We'll also be monitoring the southeast coast for some "home grown" development along the decaying front we've been telling you about.

 

Brian

Brian: Alex now a 70 mph tropical storm over Mexico...

 

Brian: A chance of torrential downpours today, highs in the low 90's..

Good morning! We're stuck in a pattern with enhanced low and upper level moisture which should help lead to widely scattered showers and storms again this afternoon. These will move from south to north and feature the possibility of torrential downpours. Expect similar weather on both Friday and Saturday with a possible trend toward slightly drier weather and more sun in time for July 4th. More coming on 6 TV; in the meantime, here is today's forecast:

Naples  Mostly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Bonita Springs Mostly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 93
Fort Myers Mostly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Cape Coral Mostly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Port Charlotte Mostly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Hendry Co. Mostly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Glades Co. Mostly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
DeSoto Co. Mostly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 91

 

Brian

Brian: Alex strongest June Atlantic hurricane since Alma in 1966... makes landfall at 105 mph...

Good morning! I just want to sum up Hurricane Alex by the numbers; by any measure, an impressive storm -- but even more impressive for one that made landfall in the waning hours of the month of June! Alex made landfall at about 10 PM last night 110 miles south of Brownsville, Texas, on the northern Mexico coast. At landfall, it was a pretty strong category 2 hurricane -- with wind of 105 mph. Not only was the core of the hurricane strong, but tropical storm force wind affected a huge area; Alex's tropical storm wind field extended out around 200 miles from the center!

 

On average, we wait until early August for the first hurricane in the Atlantic. This year, we waited until the end of June. Alex was the first June hurricane in the Atlantic since Allison was briefly a hurricane in the Gulf in 1995 (which, as you may remember, was a very active season). Further, at landfall, Alex was the strongest hurricane to occur in June in the Atlantic since Alma in 1966!

 

Alex is expected to weaken rapidly now over the rugged terrain of northern Mexico, but not before producing significant flooding across both south Texas and Mexico. Elsewhere in the tropics, no developments are imminent as I write this. There are a couple of waves to watch in the central and eastern Atlantic, but high wind shear now is located over a lot of this region north of 10 degrees north. Closer to home, with a front coming into the southeast, the waters offshore the southeast coast will be worth watching over the next few days for the possibility of a "hybrid" system developing. We'll keep you up to date.

 

Brian

Brian: Alex weakening, but still a hurricane over northern Mexico... 80 mph wind...