Nice

Let's keep it simple, isolated rain ends later today and then it will be clear, dry and nice with lower humidity. - Jim

Brian: Partly cloudy and breezy today, highs in the upper 80's

Good morning! In the wake of Tropical Storm Nicole (could have fooled me a tropical storm -- or remnants thereof -- passed close by yesterday!), drier air is moving in off of the Gulf of Mexico and we'll set up a series of dry to mainly dry days across SWFL. For today, still a bit breezy with low pressure off the east coast and, because of some low level moisture still nearby, we'll see a partly cloudy sky today. We may even be able to squeeze out a couple of light showers across the area, but these won't amount to much.

 

Today's forecast:

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 87
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 89
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 89
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 88
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 88
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 90
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 89
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 88

 

Beyond today, mostly sunny to partly cloudy through the weekend with a steady north breeze by the Saturday and Sunday. This north breeze will bring in lower dewpoint (drier) air -- we'll have morning lows in the 60's over the weekend east of I-75! A weak upper level disturbance moves through Saturday night and Sunday and should produce a few more clouds for the second half of the weekend, but not much more than that.

 

Have a great Thursday!

 

Brian

Death, taxes and drier air

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH,

Dewpoint temps will drop into the upper 60's.

Enjoy the slightly drier air Friday through Tuesday - Jim

Brian: Heavy rain on east coast, not much on our side of the state...

Good morning! Tropical Depression 16 is going about as planned right now with a very large circulation moving north of Cuba now and into the Florida Straits. Lots of tropical moisture extends from the east coast of Florida down through the Caribbean but, on our side of the state, things are pretty dry owing to the effect of some strong westerly wind shear. This wind shear is preventing the western side of TD 16 from becoming very well organized and also helping to drive some drier air in toward SWFL from the Gulf of Mexico. The bottom line? Not much rain! Expect rain chances to wind down as the day rolls on along the coast with scattered rain continuing inland through about early afternoon. Beyond that, we likely end up with some sunshine this afternoon -- especially west of I-75 -- with just a breezy day around the area. Meantime, on the east coast, several inches of rain are possible as the center of the storm (ultimately what should become Nicole) passes west of Miami and Fort Lauderdale.

 

Very dry air will build in behind TD 16 for tonight through Friday night -- with low humidity and breezy weather in the forecast. Enjoy!

 

Brian

Brian: TD16 moving north of Cuba, heavy rain on east coast -- less rain in SWFL...

TD 16 gone in 24 hours

TD 16 will keep SW Florida in and out of rain tonight and tomorrow, but it will start to move through and then away from us very quickly tomorrow. Hang in there and get ready for another 1" or 2" of rain. By tomorrow evening the rain should be done and drier air will be moving in. - Jim

Nicole will pass to the East

Tropical Depression 16 could become Tropical Storm Nicole today or tomorrow. A Flood Watch is in effect for Collier County, due to the chance of heavy rain. Even though the forecast cone is pointed toward S. Florida, Nicole will have minimal effect here. Sure, it will rain, but we are used to that. Just be prepared for heavy rain (1"-3" on average, higher around Lake O) through tomorrow. - Jim

Brian: TD 16 forms in NW Carib.. will become Nicole & move toward inland SWFL/SE FL...

Brian: Low pressure developing west of Cayman Islands...

Good morning! As modeled for the better part of the last 20 days, a tropical system is developing this morning over the northwest Caribbean. In fact, the National Hurricane Center put out a statement just after 5AM this morning saying only a little additional organization is needed for a tropical depression or even Tropical Storm Nicole to officially be classified. On this satellite loop, you can see the darker gray colors swirling between the Cayman Islands an the Yucatan Peninsula, near 85 West longitude; this appears to be where the center of circulation is forming.

 

As we've been emphasizing, future Nicole is expected to be much more of a rain maker than a wind maker for south Florida. The storm will begin to feel the effects of the southeast trough and front later today and should start to lift north across Cuba and into the Florida Straits tonight into tomorrow before tracking across south Florida. At this poitn, it looks like the track will be across the Keys and through interior Florida (or even east of here), although there is still some wiggle room with the track depending on exactly where the low level center of circulation forms. A track farther to the west means wetter weather in south Florida, farther to the east drier weather. Either way, expect cloudy, rainy, and breezy weather through most of Wednesday before drier air works in for the end of the week.

 

Much more on the tropics coming up on 6 TV in a few minutes!

 

Brian

Brian: Nicole close to forming near Cayman Islands... a possibly rainy, not windy, storm for us...

Scattered rain, then drier

Scattered clouds and rain areas are likely today and tomorrow. Slightly drier air is possible Thursday and Friday as an early season cold front comes close this week. The dry air is the "dark" area to the north and the tropical moisture is thw "white" to our south. - Jim

Brian: Watching developing area of low pressure in NW Caribbean...

Good morning! A lot of activity in the tropical Atlantic this morning and the eastern tropical Pacific. We have monsoonal moisture moving out of the Pacific, across central America and into the Caribbean. At the same time, the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew are spinning across the southern Bay of Campeche/mainland Mexico and a new area of low pressure appears to be forming near the Cayman Islands this morning. This all adds up to a very unique pattern with lots of rising motion and energy spread out across a good chunk of the Caribbean and far eastern Pacific Ocean. While the satellite view looks imposing, this "spread out" nature of the energy may actually work in our favor and prevent a terribly well organized system from ever developing.

 

The first part of the forecast to deal with is the low forming west of Jamaica this morning. It is forming underneath an upper level high and is located over some very high heat content water -- so organization should not be a problem here. But the limiting factor is its competing against a lot of rising motion elsewhere in the Caribbean and this will help keep any strengthening slow. Also, just north of the disturbance, over the southern Gulf, wind shear is high because of the trough digging into the southeast United States -- another limiting factor. As a result, most of our models show a relatively weak system lifting northward toward Florida at mid-week along the front expected to be draped across Florida. One uncertainty is how far east this low tracks -- the farther east it tracks, the drier it will be in southwest Florida. That's a question we'll try to answer better by midday but, at this point, we expect a fairly rainy mid-week period -- and a system that will be far more a rainy one than a windy one. You can see the differences in the 2nd and 3rd maps above -- total 84 hour precip in the GFS and NAM model. The NAM (farther west) is much wetter than the GFS.

 

Behind this first system or wave, we may get a respite of dry air late week and early this weekend. Then, the remnants of Matthew may get involved to help create a new area of low pressure in the northwest Caribbean which could also move toward south Florida by late in the weekend and early next week. Either way, it promises to be quite active in the Caribbean over the next week to ten days. Our models have handled the idea of an active period this week very well (going back 14-17 days ago) -- the details of this active pattern are just starting to come into focus but there are still many questions.

 

Brian

--
Brian Monahan
AM/Noon Meteorologist
WINK-TV
(239) 338-4369, brian.monahan@winktv.com

Brian: Scattered storms this afternoon, highs in the low 90's...

Good morning! Scattered showers and storms are in today's forecast as the afternoon Gulf breeze kicks in (wind will be much lighter today than it was last week, allowing that Gulf breeze to kick in). Some heavier downpours are possible as precipitable water values (amount of moisture in a column of the atmosphere) are well over 2" across south Florida. Showers and storms may have an inland drift to them with time by late today as an upper level trough and surface front move closer -- this will allow the steering flow to turn more southerly and southwesterly by late in the day.

 

Today's forecast:

Naples  Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Bonita Springs Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Fort Myers Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Cape Coral Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Port Charlotte Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Hendry Co. Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Glades Co. Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 92
DeSoto Co. Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 91

 

Starting tomorrow, the forecast details become a bit more murky. We have low pressure developing in the northwest Caribbean near the Cayman Islands this morning. While this low is now not expected to get very strong (because of how widely spread all of the energy is -- rather than concentrated in one spot -- as well as some upper level wind shear in the southern Gulf), it will potentially be a very rainy system as it moves toward south Florida at mid-week. There are still some questions as to whether this tracks more to the east toward the east coast of Florida; if this happens, we'd end up with less rain here on our side of the state. More on this situation a bit later this morning.

 

Have a great Monday!

 

Brian

Brian: Coming up @ 5... complex situation this week in Caribbean... difficult forecast ahead...

Brian: A very complex forecast in NW Caribbean this week... very unique to Atlantic as well...

Just a fast update: still watching the potential for a very complex situation to evolve in the eastern Gulf/northwest Caribbean over the next 5-7 days (or more if you believe some of the modeling this morning). The pattern favors a cut off area of low pressure (trough) across the southeastern United States which is a pattern that is favorable for, at the least, substantial tropical moisture moving toward south Florida later this week. The million dollar question at this point is: what develops? Our models have been insistent for better than 2 weeks now that a system of tropical nature will affect the eastern Gulf/Florida/Bahamas region around October 1st, and they remain consistent on this although the details are becoming a little more blurry now. What initially looked like a single defined area of low pressure (Matthew), now appears it could be multiple areas of potentially weaker low pressure forming in the northwest Caribbean and moving northward.

Very unusual set up and evolution expected this week in the Caribbean and eastern Gulf. In fact, the satellite view this morning shows what's left of Matthew west of Guatemala over southern Mexico. In addition, a substantial amount of monsoonal moisture from the Pacific is moving across central America into the western Caribbean and it's all resulting in a huge circulation stretching across both the Pacific and Caribbean sides of central America. Stay tuned this week, this will be a very difficult and complex forecast for south Florida!

Brian

Matt will weaken, Rain will continue

Scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two will be the rule today, tomorrow and into next week. Matthew is not having any effect on our weather and it should not until possibly next week. If Matthew spends the weekend over land (Central America) it should weaken. There isn't much to do until Monday or so. By then we will have a better idea what we are or are not dealing with. - Jim

Tropical Tally Ticking Up Fast

After a slow start to the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season, the Atlantic Basin has been busy churning out tropical systems over the last month. Prior to August 21st, only three named storms had developed. Thursday, the 13th tropical storm of the season, Matthew, formed in the Caribbean…thus 10 of the 13 named storms this season formed in the last 4.5 weeks.

A reduction in the vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic is thought to have contributed to the slower start to the season. Now with near-normal instability, record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, and reduced wind shear due to a La Nina phase in place…2010 is on track to go down as a very busy season. So far, 6 of the named storms have reached hurricane strength…with 5 becoming major hurricanes.

4 of the major hurricanes reached Category 4 strength thus this season is now one major hurricane away from moving into a 7-way tie for the 3rd most major hurricanes to form in a season. 2nd most is 7 major hurricanes which formed in 1961 and 1st place is 8 in 1950. An average season sees the formation of 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Hurricane season ends November 30th.

-Lauren

Brian: Matthew a 50 mph tropical storm headed for Central America...

Good morning! Tropical Storm Matthew is chugging along toward the west this morning at 15 mph, headed for an encounter with the Nicaraguan and Honduran coasts later today or first thing tomorrow morning. The ridge of high pressure to the north of Matthew remains very strong at this hour, and this will guide Matthew on a westerly to west-northwesterly course over the next 36-48 hours. Then, things change.

 

Over the next couple of days, Matthew will scrape along (or move just inland) through Central America on its way to Belize and the Yucatan peninsula. The amount of land interaction will be key in determining how strong Matthew is when it arrives near the Yucatan later this weekend. Remember, some of the warmest water in the entire Atlantic basin is located in the Northwest Caribbean -- ideally, we'll hope that Matthew stays enough over land to avoid some of this very warm water.

 

As the ridge of high pressure breaks down, the steering currents for Matthew will become very weak this weekend and its likely the storm will drift around the northwest Caribbean/Yucatan through early next week. Then, a developing trough in the eastern United States will have the potential to move Matthew (or possibly a second system that develops/redevelops to the east over the Caribbean) toward the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

 

What can we say definitively at this point? Not much; we do know an area of low pressure -- a trough -- will move into the east next week. That's the fairly "certain" part of the forecast. But the status of Matthew (or a second system) as it moves away from the Yucatan is very much up for debate right now and will be the focus of our forecasting over the weekend. At the least, though, with the trough/front coming into the southeastern United States, expect an increase in the chance of rain across SWFL by the middle to end of next week. Ultimately, at this point Matthew is nothing to be worried about -- but you will want to keep tabs on the storm this weekend.

 

Brian

Brian: Mostly cloudy, scattered storms today... highs near 90... a little drier early next week

Good morning! Plenty of tropical moisture around this morning (not associated with Matthew) -- this has increased the chance of rain across the area. Scattered showers and storms are in the afternoon forecast along with a mostly cloudy sky. The clouds and rain later today should hold temperatures down into the upper 80's to near 90.

 

Looking ahead to the weekend, Sunday might turn out to be a little sunnier/drier than Saturday. The reason? A cold front/trough moving into the eastern United States should help draw the deepest tropical moisture to our north and west. That slightly drier pattern should last through early next week before we begin to turn our attention toward the south and Tropical Storm Matthew.

 

Today's forecast:

 

Naples  Mostly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 89
Bonita Springs Mostly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 89
Fort Myers Mostly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 90
Cape Coral Mostly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 89
Port Charlotte Mostly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 90
Hendry Co. Mostly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 88
Glades Co. Mostly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 88
DeSoto Co. Mostly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 89

 

Brian

Brian: Matthew now a 50 mph tropical storm as of 5 AM...

Brian: Matthew becoming better organized... headed for first landfall Nicaragua/Honduras today...

 

A New Tropical Storm

Tropical Storm Matthew is about 926 miles from SW Florida, in the Caribbean. While it will not affect our weather over the next 5 days, we will be watching to see if it can make it into the Gulf of Mexico next week. In the mean time, rainy afternoon and evenings have returned and should continue into the weekend. - Jim

Caribbean Tropical Wave Now a Tropical Depression

Data from an Air Force Reconnaissance Plane investigating the strong tropical disturbance in the central Caribbean Sea is indicating that a tropical depression has formed. A special advisory on this system will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2pm. This is the 15th tropical depression of the season to form.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Look for more details regarding the latest tropical depression of the season, likely to become Tropical Storm Matthew, on WINK News Now at 5pm with Chief Meteorologist Jim Farrell.

-Lauren

More rain, then it's when, not if...

The dry air is gone and the moisture has returned along with a better chance of rain through the weekend. It's a matter of time before the tropical wave in the Caribbean gets better organized. The atmosphere is evolving into a favorable one and the wave is about to move just south of some of the warmest water in the tropics, see the pic of SST's. It will become a depression and go on to become Tropical Storm Matthew. This is a system, once named, that we will have to watch closely. It could impact our weather late next week. - Jim

Brian: Watching Invest 95L....

Good morning! The tropical wave that our forecast models have been keying on for the past couple of weeks is finally coming to fruitition in the south-central Caribbean, just north of South America. The wave is becoming much better organized this morning and, for the first time, convection is becoming concentrated on what appears to be a developing center of low pressure. An Air Force Recon flight is just arriving near the tropical wave now and will be investigating it this morning; judging by nearby buoy observations, as long as a closed circulation is found it seems likely we will have a tropical depression by later today (some wind reports are in the 25-30 mph range right now).

 

You can see on the steering map, the short term future for 95L is for a west to west-northwest track toward Central America. From here, most of the models continue to say that a developing trough of low pressure across the eastern US will allow 95L to begin to turn more toward the north early next week. In terms of strength by early next week, much will depend on how much time it spends interacting with the rugged terrain of Central America... it's too early to answer this question. That said, some of the warmest water/highest heat content water in the entire Atlantic basin is located in the northwest Caribbean. If 95L can stay over water, it could become a significant system.

 

We'll be watching this wave closely over the coming days as it is possible at the very least substantial tropical moisture could head toward the eastern Gulf by the middle to end of next week!

 

Brian

Brian: Invest 95L becoming better organized in south-central Carib... hurricane hunters on the way...

Brian: Tropical moisture returns today, scattered showers and storms later...

Good morning! Tropical moisture that has been trapped across the Bahamas and Hispanolia for the past several days is finally working back into southwest Florida. In fact, this morning you can already see the effect: more showers and storms moving toward the east coast and Keys as the day dawns. Clouds will increase this afternoon with showers and storms developing first inland and then moving to the coast as we wind down the day near sunset. Tomorrow should be even cloudier/wetter as the tropical moisture sits right overhead. Bottom line: the first couple of days of fall will be much wetter than the last 7-10 days of summer!

 

Today's forecast:

Naples  Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Bonita Springs Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Fort Myers Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Cape Coral Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Port Charlotte Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Hendry Co. Mostly Cloudy  Mainly PM Storms; High 89
Glades Co. Mostly Cloudy  Mainly PM Storms; High 89
DeSoto Co. Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 90

 

By the weekend, the deepest tropical moisture should start to lift back into the Gulf of Mexico and get pulled north toward an oncoming upper level trough in the eastern United States. This may lead to a few slightly (and only slightly) drier days by Sunday and lasting into early next week. By Wednesday, we'll need to pay close attention to the northwest Caribbean as Invest 95L (soon to be Tropical Depression 15/Matthew, it seems) drifts around near Central America and the Yucatan. All signs point to, at the least, a lot of tropical moisture nearby by the middle to end of next week.

 

Brian

Brian: Lisa weakens to a tropical depression, 95L becoming better organized in Caribbean as of 5AM...

 

Showers Return, Autumn Begins

Not that it is noticeable in SW Florida, but Summer ends tonight and tomorrow will be the first day of Autumn. So, you might want to bring in your real plants and put out your plastic ones. (old Johnny Carson joke....google Johnny Carson if you never heard of him). Go to the library and look up "Google" if you never heard of Google. Thanks for coming and don't forget to tip your news producers and photographers on your way out. But I digress.....tropics are quiet. The tropical wave in the Caribbean could become a Tropical Depression this week. - Jim

Brian: Fall begins at 11:09 pm this evening...

Brian: Isolated rain returns to the forecast today... higher chance of rain starting tomm.

Good morning! Not quite as "cool" this morning across SWFL -- with more moisture in the atmosphere, it's hard to find any temperatures below the mid 70's right now. This is a sure sign that our pattern is changing -- a deep, easterly flow is establishing itself and this is allowing more moisture to work in from the east. In fact, by tomorrow, a tropical wave will move overhead really increasing the chance for precipitation. For today, another breezy day is in the forecast and those breezes should be able to carry some isolated showers from the east coast in our direction. Granted, not a whole lot of rain, but certainly more today than we've seen over the last week to ten days!

 

Today's forecast:

 

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Rain; High 92
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Rain; High 92
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Rain; High 91
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Rain; High 91
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Rain; High 90
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Rain; High 90
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Rain; High 89
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Rain; High 90

 

Have a great day!

 

Brian

Bye Bye Dry

That red slot of dry air over Florida should erode as it is replaced by moisture. This will open the door for some rain to return to SW Florida, especially by Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The blue area south of Puerto Rico is a tropical wave that we will watch as it moves to the west. - Jim

Brian: Watching a wave in the eastern Caribbean...

Good afternoon! Lisa remains a weak tropical storm way out in the eastern Atlantic (no effect on us) and Igor is quickly losing tropical characteristics as it continues to affect the Canadian maritimes. To our southeast, though, a tropical wave is getting organized -- a wave that has been forecast by the models to develop in this general area for the better part of the last 10-14 days. This model consistency and agreement lends credence to the idea that there will soon be (by late this week) a tropical system to track in the Caribbean.

 

In the short term, any development should be relatively slow to occur and motion will be slow to to the west-northwest as high pressure remains lodged over the Gulf and the southeastern United States. Late this week and into the weekend, though, this ridge is forecast to break down and a trough is forecast to develop in the eastern United States. It's because of this trough that this tropical wave will certainly be worth monitoring over the next several days as it organizes and pushes into the central and, eventually, western Caribbean.

 

Brian

Brian: Mainly dry & breezy today, highs in the lower 90's...

Good morning! We'll have a few more clouds around later today (high from the west and low coming in from the east) and a bit more low level moisture to work with; this should allow for a few more afternoon showers. Expect the chance of rain to increase markedly by Thursday and Friday as the low level flow becomes more easterly (or even east-southeasterly), helping to steer some tropical moisture that now is over the northern Caribbean/Hispanolia in our direction. So, our weather pattrn turns wetter as the week rolls on.

 

Today's forecast:

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 92
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 92
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 91
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 91
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 90
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 90
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 89
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 90

 

Have a great Tuesday!

 

Brian

Brian: 12th named storm of season forms in eastern Atlantic... Tropical Storm Lisa

Good morning! Lisa has formed in the eastern Atlantic, west of the Cape Verde Islands. The motion of Lisa will be erratic at best over the next few days but ultimately Lisa should be carried to the north and well away from any land areas. No threat to SWFL. We will be watching the Caribbean very closely as the week goes on as our models continue to point toward the possibility of a system moving into the NW Caribbean over the weekend and into early next week.

 

Brian

Dry Again

No measurable rain so far today and it looks like the dry air sent our way by Igor will keep us mostly dry tomorrow. How long will the drier weather last? Rain will be more likely by the weekend. - Jim

Brian: Partly cloudy, breezy today... still mainly dry...

Good morning! Some mid level moisture coming in off of the Atlantic is helping to create a few clouds around southwest Florida late this morning but, underneath these clouds, the air remains very dry for September and rain chances will be quite limited today. Still dry tomorrow before a deeper easterly flow sends more moisture in our direction starting Wednesday.

 

Toward the end of the week and into the weekend, we'll have to start paying attention to possible tropical developments in the Caribbean. More on that later this week.

 

Brian

Brian: Mainly Dry & Breezy Again, Chances of Rain Rise Later This Week

Good morning! Another comfortable start this morning with temperatures across SWFL ranging from the upper 60's inland to the low 70's back to the coast -- can't ask for better weather in the later half of September! It's another mainly dry and breezy afternoon today with highs in the lower 90's. By tomorrow, a bit more moisture will work in from the northeast and we may be able to squeeze out a few more showers across the area.

 

The much better chance of rain, though, waits until late this week as a deep easterly flow develops -- helping to pull tropical moisture back into the area for the first time in about a week. Plan on more rain (and storms) as we head toward the end of the week.

 

Today's forecast:

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 92
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 92
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 91
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 91
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 90
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 90
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 90
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 90

Enjoy your Monday!

 

Brian

Brian: Igor pulling away from Bermuda... still a Category 1 hurricane.. Julia still a tropical storm...

 

Summer takes a Fall

Water vapor image still shows the dry air in "black". The driest air stays to the east, but Igor will help to transport some dry air toward SW Florida tomorrow and Sunday, so it looks like we should have a mostly dry, last weekend of summer. - Jim

Brian: Isolated quick moving showers today, otherwise mainly dry & breezy...

Good morning! Drier than average weather continues across southwest Florida for the next several afternoons. Expect just a few isolated quick moving showers this afternoon with otherwise dry weather and highs in the lower 90's. It's the same deal tomorrow with even drier weather Sunday and Monday as Igor moves by well to the east of Florida. Into the middle of next week, the weather pattern that has kept us dry and kept tropical moisture away from south Florida may begin to change as many of our models are signaling the start of a pattern that will favor the possibility of tropical waves in the Caribbean being farther north and waves in the Atlantic coming farther to the west. Bottom line: more rain is in the forecast by the middle of next week and we may have to start watching the Caribbean carefully for development starting the middle of next week.

 

Until then, enjoy a great weather weekend! Today's forecast:

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Rain; High 92
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Rain; High 93
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Rain; High 93
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Rain; High 92
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Rain; High 91
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Rain; High 91
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Rain; High 90
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Rain; High 91

 

Brian

Brian: Karl now season's 5th major hurricane... landfall later today on mainland Mexico coast...

A picture is worth a thousand words -- certainly true in the above satellite image of Hurricane Karl this morning! Karl now has a well defined eye that formed over the last 6 hours or so as it gets set for a second landfall on the coast of mainland Mexico later today. Upper level wind is very light and high pressure is centered aloft over Karl -- a perfect environment for strengthening even though the heat content of the Bay of Campeche is not very high (despite very warm water in this part of the Gulf, it is not very deep -- thus lower heat content). Karl is now the 5th major hurricane -- a Category 3 -- of the Atlantic season.

 

Igor is also still a major hurricane while Julia is about to start weakening east of Igor. The pattern that has been protecting us from tropical systems over the last several weeks may start to break down this weekend and early next week. We may have to be on the lookout for a tropical wave that will enter in the Caribbean early next week. More later.

 

Brian

Now There Are 3

Three Hurricanes, from west to east....Karl, Igor and Julia. Igor will be due east of SW Florida this weekend which should help to keep this drier weather pattern in place for a few more days. - jim

Karl Becomes 6th Hurricane of the Season

At 11am this morning, Tropical Storm Karl was upgraded to hurricane status ....making Karl the 6th hurricane to develop this season. Karl made landfall yesterday morning on the Yucatan Peninsula as a strong tropical storm...traversed the peninsula and emerged into the Bay of Campeche early this morning where it has been gaining strength on it's path west-bound. Hurricane Karl has winds of 75 mph and will likely continue to strengthen before making a second landfall on the central Mexican coastline late Friday night.

-Lauren

Scott: Still dry across the area. Can this last into the weekend? That would be nice. Details on WINK now.

Looks like dry weather for the most part for the next several days. We do have a little rain in the forecast for Friday afternoon as some moisture swings in form the east. I still think that most of us will remain dry. This pattern will be with us through the weekend.

 

The tropics are still active with three named systems. Karl made landfall in the Yucatan earlier today and is moving west. Both Igor and Julia will stay out in the Atlantic. But remember, two more months of hurricane season left and we will start keeping an eye on the western Caribbean and the Gulf for systems to form and move toward Florida.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

History Being Made in the Tropics

Hurricane Julia in the eastern Atlantic rapidly intensified overnight, strengthening from a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 85 mph at 5pm Tuesday afternoon to a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 135 mph as of the 5am Wednesday morning advisory from the National Hurricane Center...just 12 hours later. Julia's pressure dropped an impressive 32 millibars in that 12 hour time frame. Now that Julia has reached Cat 4 status we have, for only the second time in history, two Category 4 hurricanes simultaneously active in the Atlantic Basin...the last time this occurred was in 1926! 84 years ago, almost to the day, on September 16th, the Great Miami Hurricane and Hurricane Four (tropical storms/hurricanes were designated with female names not until 1950, with male names introduced in 1979) were both Category 4 storms for a six-hour period.

Hurricane Julia is also now the strongest hurricane on record so far east in the Atlantic. Neither Igor or Julia is forecast to impact the United States. Tropical Storm Karl made landfall this morning on Mexico's Yucatan peninsula and will likely make a secondary landfall on the central Mexican coastline over the weekend. So far this season, 11 named storms have developed, with 5 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes...all 4 reaching Category 4 strength. We have already surpassed the 2009 season's total of 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

Have a great day,

Lauren

Two at Once

With both hurricane Igor and Julia reaching Category 4 strength, NOAA's National Hurricane Center reports these interesting facts:

* Two category four hurricanes existing simultaneously in the Atlantic basin has occurred only one other time since 1900: September 16, 1926 (Hurricane #4 and the Great Miami Hurricane).
* There are only three other incidents of two major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) at the same time: 1950 (Dog and Easy), 1958 (Helene & Ilsa), and 1999 (Floyd & Gert).
* Hurricane Julia is the most intense hurricane to be located so far in the Eastern North Atlantic. - Jim

Brian: Karl close to landfall in north Belize/Yucatan of Mexico...

The latest advisory from the NHC is just in and maintains Karl as a 65 mph tropical storm. The center of Karl is within an hour or two of making landfall in northern Belize and the southern part of the Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Karl will likely weaken today as it crosses the Yucatan (heavy, flooding rain likely there later today) and restrengthen starting tomorrow as it reemerges out over the Bay of Campeche. It is possible Karl will be a hurricane when it makes its second landfall on the east coast of mainland Mexico late Friday night or Saturday.

 

Brian

Brian: A few showers possible in Collier, otherwise mainly dry & breezy today...

Good morning! Yesterday's gorgeous afternoon will be followed by another one today -- and for the next several days, for that matter. Strong high pressure is dominating the weather picture across the southern tier of the United States and will keep our forecast mainly dry and breezy over the next week. With Karl and tropical moisture passing to our south this morning and tomorrow, there is a slight chance for enough moisture to be around to produce a couple of quick moving showers in Collier and south Hendry the next two days. Otherwise, it's dry and breezy into the weekend!

 

Today's forecast:

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Rain; High 92
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Rain; High 92
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 92
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 91
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 90
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Rain; High 91
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 90
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 90

 

Have a good Wednesday!

 

Brian

Brian: Julia and Igor both major hurricanes, Karl strengthening as it heads toward Yucatan...

Igor and Julia will stay out in the Atlantic and away from the United States. Karl will be blocked to the south by high pressure and head toward the southern Gulf and a second landfall over mainland Mexico late this week.

 

Brian

Water vapor says it all. Red is dry and it is red in the middle atmosphere. As Igor gets closer to the US mainland it will help to drive more dry air towards SW Florida. - Jim

Brian: Igor (135 mph/Cat 4) moving slowly, Julia (85 mph/Cat 1) strengthening, next depression forming?

Invest 92L, the tropical wave we've been tracking for the last several days in the Caribbean, is now located near and just west of the Cayman Islands and, looking at the visible satellite loop, appears to be gaining a more well defined circulation at this hour. The NHC has upgraded the chance of development over the next 48 hours to high -- and it is possible that by this evening this could be a tropical depression approaching the Yucantan Peninsula. As we've been saying for the past several days though, any development in the Caribbean will stay well away from southwest Florida given high pressure anchored across the southern tier of the United States.

 

Elsewhere, the forecasts remain unchanged for Igor (near Bermuda and then off the east coast of the United States) and Julia (moving well east of Bermuda into the central Atlantic).

 

Brian

Brian: Isolated PM Storms today, breezy with highs in the low to mid 90's...

Good morning! Drier air has moved into southwest Florida this morning with moisture levels much lower throughout the depth of the atmosphere compared to this time yesterday. We'll still have enough moisture around for some isolated quick moving showers and storms this afternoon, but the coverage of rain/intensity of the rain should be much lower than yesterday. By tomorrow, high pressure pushes even drier air in and through the start of the weekend our forecast is mainly dry. Enjoy!

 

Today's forecast:

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 93
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 93
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 93
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 92
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 93
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 91
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 90 
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 91

 

Have a good Tuesday!

 

Brian

Brian: Julia now a hurricane in east Atlantic... Igor a 135 mph Category 4 hurricane...

Scott: drier weather on the way. Well at least less rain. Details starting at 5 on WINK.

An easterly flow will bring in slightly drier conditions for the next week. Also tracking dry air in the upper atmosphere. That will hurt any storms that try to develop. This pattern will be here through the weekend.

Igor nearing cat 5 strength. Heading toward bermuda. Julia still a weak tropical storm. Also heading out into the Atlantic.

We are watching a wave due south of us near Jamaica. This may develop in the next few days but will stay heading west..

Sent from Zed's iPhone

A Drier Week

Slightly drier air aloft should be all it takes to allow fewer showers and thunderstorms later this week. Meanwhile, all tropical troublemakers are either curving east or south of SW Florida. - Jim

Brian: Igor still a Category 4 (150 mph), Julia a minimal TS (40 mph), 92L organizing...

Good morning! Active weather continues in the tropics with Igor, Julia, and a strong tropical wave all drawing interest in the Atlantic. Igor remains a powerful Category 4 hurricane with wind at 150 mph; Igor very well could become the Atlantic's first Category 5 storm since Hurricane Felix in 2007. Igor has a period of about 2 or 3 days to remain this powerful before it begins to feel the effects of some enhanced wind shear farther to its northwest. While the track of Igor has shifted somewhat to the west, Igor is still likely to remain well to the east of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast coast, but should bring high seas and perhaps some gusty wind to the Northeast coast next weekend and early next week. For us, on the back side of Igor, it should be a similar story to Danielle's and Earl's passage to our east -- unusually dry weather.

 

Julia is a minimal tropical storm near the Cape Verde Islands and, like Igor early in its life, is feeling the effects of enhanced wind shear in the far eastern Atlantic. As Julia moves farther west though, the environment becomes favorable for strengthening and all of our model guidance indicates Julia will become a strong tropical storm/hurricane over the next 2-4 days. Julia, however, will move east of Igor and pass into the open waters of the central Atlantic.

 

The strong tropical wave to our south has sustained convection over the last several hours and is now showing signs of a developing center of low pressure south of Jamaica late this morning. It is about to move over some of the very warmest/highest heat content waters in the Atlantic basin and, with favorable upper level wind, should be able to develop into a tropical depression or even storm later today or tomorrow morning. With strong high pressure sitting across the Gulf of Mexico and southern tier of the United States, any system that develops in the Caribbean will be forced toward the Yucatan Peninsula and will not affect us in southwest Florida.

 

Brian

Brian: Scattered storms today, a much drier week in the forecast though...

Good morning! A bit more moisture is moving in aloft from the north today and this should lead to more widespread showers and storms today compared to yesterday. Once we get past this afternoon though, extra dry air funnels in from north Florida and should limit our rain chances to the isolated category -- and mainly south -- for tomorrow and Wednesday. By Thursday through Saturday, high pressure aloft and dry air combine to essentially keep all of southwest Florida dry. The breeze will be up a little bit though Tuesday through Thursday.

 

Today's forecast:

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 93
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 93
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 91

 

Have a great Monday!

 

Brian

Brian: Igor could become first Cat 5 in Atlantic since Felix in 2007...

 

Brian: Julia a minimal tropical storm, Igor nearly a Category 5 hurricane -- track shifts west...

Igor should still miss the United States, but it may get closer to eastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes than we were thinking last week. I have the latest on the tropics coming up in 5 minutes on WINK.

 

Brian

Brian: Very heavy rain moving through south Fort Myers/SE Cape.. FMB...

Rain also moving south and south-southwest along I-75 from Charlotte County through Collier County. Expect these showers and storms to fizzle out/move offshore over the next hour to hour and a half.

Brian

Brian: Storms mainly inland now but trying to push back toward coast...

Good evening! A few showers and storms are active right now along and east of I-75 through inland southwest Florida. These storms have been drifting inland with time this afternoon but now, as outflow boundaries become involved and the steering flow becomes more north and northeasterly, these storms are trying to push back toward the coast. Don't be surprised if a few heavier downpours and rumbles of thunder make it to the Lee and Collier coast after sunset this evening as these fading storms push slowly toward the Gulf.

 

Over the weekend, the steering pattern becomes a bit stronger and storms and showers should move more quickly toward the southwest with time. Before the storms arrive each day, expect highs in the low to mid 90's both Saturday and Sunday.

 

Some drier air might try to push into the area by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, but the latest forecast models are starting to indicate this drier air might get stuck across central and north Florida. Jim and I will have the latest on WINK over the next 45 minutes.

 

Brian

An Iggy Pop

Igor has strengthened, but we will have another week to watch it. Meanwhile look for dry mornings and wet afternoons this weekend as the steering currents remain from the east. - Jim

50 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Donna

Today through the weekend marks the 50th anniversary of Hurricane Donna, a history-making storm which brought major devastation to parts of Southwest Florida in 1960. Hurricane Donna was a dangerous Cape Verde type hurricane...meaning the system first began development near the west coast of Africa's Cape Verde Islands. The inclement weather, of the tropical disturbance that later became Donna, may have caused the crash of a French airliner attempting to land at an airport in Dakar, Senegal.

On it's route through the Atlantic, Hurricane Donna impacted the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the southeastern Bahamas with Donna's first U.S. landfall in Marathon on the Florida Keys as a Category 4 storm. Donna then made a turn to the north and paralleled the Southwest Florida coastline until it made a second landfall in between Naples and Ft. Myers on September 10th, again as a powerful Category 4 hurricane. 92 mph winds were reported in Ft. Myers with gusts to 121 mph and winds likely gusted to near 150 mph in Naples and in Everglades City! Donna demolished the Naples Fishing Pier that had withstood all previous hurricanes since it's construction in 1888.

Hurricane Donna brought 11 feet of storm surge to the coast of SWFL with the storm tide pushing to the center of Naples. Donna was a slow-moving hurricane, dumping an estimated 7+ inches of rain across our area...estimated because nearly all of the rain gauges in Ft. Myers and points south were either blown away or tipped over by the powerful winds. Donna's impacts were devastating for the Everglades where 50-90% of the foliage was torn away and 35% of the white heron population was killed.

Hurricane Donna went on to cross the Florida peninsula and re-emerged into the Atlantic near Daytona Beach. Donna made another landfall at Topsail Beach, NC as a Category 2 hurricane. The storm continued up and off-shore of the Eastern Seaboard bringing 75 mph wind gusts to Norfolk, VA and 100 mph wind gusts to Wildwood on the NJ coast, making a final landfall on eastern Long Island as strong Category 1 with winds near 95 mph. Hurricane Donna then continued northeastward through New England where wind gusts to 79 mph were reported in Boston, making Donna the only hurricane on record to produce hurricane-force winds in Florida, the Mid-Atlantic states, and New England.

Hurricane Donna holds the record for maintaining major hurricane status in the Atlantic Basin for the longest period of time, as for nine days, from September 2nd to 11th, Donna consistently had maximum sustained winds of at least 115 mph, and was a Category 5 at it's strongest over the open Atlantic. Donna is still one of the ten costliest U.S. hurricanes with damages estimated at 6.6 billion in 2010 dollars. The name Donna was retired and replaced with Dora in 1964.

For more on Hurricane Donna...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/?n=donna

Have a great day,
Lauren

Rain on the Way

Showers and a few thunderstorms are moving out of the SE and headed towards SW Florida. Meanwhile, Igor is a 40mph Tropical Storm that is over 3500 miles away from Florida. - Jim

Brian: Tropical wave near Windward Islands will move into central/northern Carib...

Good morning! In addition to Tropical Storm Igor, located about 3800 miles away from southwest Florida this morning, we're keeping an eye on a large tropical wave located in the southeastern Caribbean -- near the Windward Islands and the north coast of South America. This wave is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest and northwest over the next 3-5 days and could very well become our next tropical cyclone this season as it moves into the central and northern Caribbean about 5 days from now. This system should evolve slowly over the next few days but all signs point to a favorable upper level environment and -- most certainly -- favorably warm waters to be present as the wave moves westward.

 

As for the strength of the system and a potential track down the line, it's much too early to speculate but, generally, our models do indicate a large area of high pressure will be centered in the upper levels of the atmosphere over the south central and southeastern United States. In the absence of any kind of trough over the eastern US, this would favor a southerly track for whatever the wave ultimately becomes. In any event, lots of time to watch this one as it moves slowly westward.

 

Brian

Brian: Scattered slow moving storms today... highs in the lower 90's...

Good morning! Very light steering level wind today will lead to scattered slow moving thunderstorms this afternoon. The morning should be mainly dry, though, save for maybe an inland shower or two as we close in on noon. For tomorrow, the steering wind will become stronger -- and will be from the northwest. This will allow for the best chance of storms to be across inland southwest Florida by late afternoon and early evening. Over the weekend, the steering flow becomes northerly meaning equal chances of rain both inland and along the coast.

 

Today's forecast:

Naples  Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Bonita Springs Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Fort Myers Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Cape Coral Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Port Charlotte Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Hendry Co. Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 90
Glades Co. Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 89
DeSoto Co. Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 90

 

Have a great Thursday!

 

Brian

Brian: Igor still a 40 mph tropical storm... fighting wind shear near Cape Verde Islands...

Good morning! Tropical Storm Igor, located about 3800 miles away from southwest Florida in the far eastern Atlantic, remains a 40 mph storm as of the 5 AM advisory. Right now, it is battling against some strong wind shear near the Cape Verde Islands although, as the system moves west, the wind shear is expected to weaken and as long as dry air doesn't get wrapped into the system, a strengthening trend is expected to begin late this week and into the weekend. We'll have many days to watch Igor which should be in the central Atlantic by Tuesday of next week. More on the tropics coming later..

 

Brian

Scott: Heavy rain over south Cape is weakening. 2 inches fell there. More on the way?

Scattered afternoon and evening storms in the forecast for the next few days. By Sunday some slightly drier weather pushes in. So fewer storms by then.

 

Tropical Storm Igor has formed 3800 miles away from Florida, off the coast of Africa. Could become a hurricane by the weekend. However, looks like long range models keep this in the central Atlantic. Plenty of time to track.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Brian: Tropical Storm Igor Forms in Eastern Atlantic

Good morning! The tropical wave we were tracking this morning was just upgraded to a tropical storm as of the 11 AM forecast package from the National Hurricane Center. We now have our ninth named storm of the season: Tropical Storm Igor, located about 3,900 miles away from southwest Florida. Lots of time to watch this system, which is generally forecast to move westerly toward the central Atlantic by early next week. The official NHC forecast brings this to hurricane intensity over the weekend. Beyond that, many of our global forecast models sweep Igor out into the open waters of the north-central Atlantic with an eastward moving upper level trough. Ultimately, it's much too early to say what Igor's fate will be down the line, though.

 

Brian

Brian: Drier air sits just to our north this morning, still scattered storms this afternoon...

Good morning! A little bit of drier air is trying to move south across the peninsula this morning but it looks like the driest will remain just out of reach of southwest Florida. This will lead to scattered showers and storms this afternoon, first inland and then finishing the day along the coast. In fact, already this morning there are some showers and storms affecting the east coast but these should fizzle out before they get a chance to move west of Lake Okeechobee.

 

For tomorrow, the steering currents are very light and showers and storms should drift around SWFL during the afternoon. On Friday, the steering currents shift slightly toward an onshore direction which should guide the best chances of rain toward inland areas to finish off the week.

 

Today's forecast:

Naples  Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 90
Bonita Springs Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Fort Myers Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Cape Coral Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Port Charlotte Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 91
Hendry Co. Increasing Clouds  Scattered Storms; High 89
Glades Co. Increasing Clouds  Scattered Storms; High 88
DeSoto Co. Increasing Clouds  Scattered PM Storms; High 90

Have a great Wednesday!

 

Brian

Labor Day Rain

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will roam the area today and this evening. The atmosphere is unstable, so one or two storm could become strong. The tropics are more active with Hermine in the Western Gulf. - Jim

8th Tropical Storm of the Season Forms in the Western Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Hermine has formed in the western Gulf of Mexico...the system will not be a threat to SWFL as Hermine will remain in the western Gulf. Hermine currently has winds of 40 mph with some strengthening expected through the day today. Tropical Storm Hermine is expected to make landfall late tonight/early tomorrow morning near the border of northern Mexico and southern Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for south Texas.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/084914.shtml?5-daynl#contents

We're talking tropics and the details of your Labor Day forecast on WINK News Now This Morning...Join us!

Lauren

TD 10

Tropical Depression 10 has formed in the Western Gulf. It will not affect SW Florida. Labor Day showers and storms are likely., some may come early in the afternoon. - Jim

Something Old, Something New

Two disturbances, old Gaston east of the Caribbean and a new disturbance in the SW Gulf. The Gulf disturbance will drift northward, Gaston will move westward. Neither is a threat to SW Florida for the next week. Showers and thunderstorms return tomorrow, so Labor Day could be soggy in a few spots. - Jim

Earl, too far east, too weak

Wind is not an issue with this one. - Jim

Rainy Season Returns

Earl is a Cat 1 and not a big deal. Mainly, our story is the return of showers and storms.....a few tomorrow, even more Sunday. In fact, as steering currents push rain from west to east, some of the rain on Sunday could come early in the day. Labor Day Monday looks like a typical day for this time of the year, afternoon showers and storms. - Jim

Surface Conditions in NC

Current conditions in the path of Earl indicate that the wind is NOT strong yet, 20-30 mph at the coast. The wind will increase tonight as Earl will be east of North Carolina between midnight and 6am. - Jim

Earl is moving away from SW Florida, so our weather pattern will evolve from dry to more "normal". Look for a few showers tomorrow, more rain intothe Labor Day Weekend. - Jim

Brian: Earl brushes east coast, Fiona farther east, Gaston far out in Atlantic...

Fast update on the tropics as there's a lot going on right now: Earl is still a category 4 storm as of the 8 AM advisory from NHC (145 mph). There are signs though that wind shear to the storm's north is starting to impact it. As the orientation of the storm becomes less vertical with time, drier air will get a chance to push in toward the center and Earl should begin a weakening trend as it approaches the latitude of the Carolinas. It will still be a powerful storm though and likely bring strong TS/category 1 wind to eastern North Carolina. The storm should brush just east of the Carolinas before heading toward Nantucket, MA (likely east of there too).

 

Tropical Storm Fiona continues to struggle to the southeast of Earl. It's a 50 mph tropical storm, and a very much smaller storm than Earl. It does look like the storm may get a chance to drift for a little while north of the Bahamas, but should generally get drawn out to sea along with Earl as it moves away from the Northeast coast.

 

Tropical Storm Gaston is in the central Atlantic now, located about 3000 miles away from SWFL. This storm is unlike Earl and Danielle in that it will have a strong ridge of high pressure to its north for the next several days. In the short term, it will battle with dry air to its west and strengthening may be slow over the next day or so but all of our models do bring this to hurricane intensity within 3-5 days. Gaston will likely still be east of the Windward Islands by next Tuesday and entering or near the Caribbean by mid week. Unlike Danielle and Earl, storms we could tell you very early in the game would pass east of Florida, we cannot do the same this far out with Gaston. As a result, you'll want to keep tabs on Gaston as we head deeper into the Labor Day weekend.

 

Brian

Brian: A chance of rain both early and later in the day this weekend

Good morning! A quick update on your weekend forecast: as Earl pulls away, a reverse southwest steering pattern should set itself up across south Florida and, with ample mid level and low level moisture returning off of the Gulf, we should have a chance of both morning and afternoon showers and storms over the Labor Day weekend. Otherwise, a mix of clouds & sun each day with highs in the lower 90's. Some additional moisture will try to move in from the north as well this weekend so, if anything, I think the forecast could trend a little cloudier rather than a little drier as we update things later today and tomorrow.

 

Brian

Brian: Based on pressure, Earl now strongest Atlantic hurricane since Dean in 2007...

 

Brian: One more mainly dry day, moisture/chance of rain returns on Friday...

Good morning! It's off to a really comfortable start this morning around SWFL with temperatures in the low to mid 70's (even some upper 60's in a few inland spots!) and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60's. Why so dry in early September? Hurricane Earl -- sinking air (or subsidence) on the back side of the system continues to squash our chance of rain across the area today. By tomorrow, though, as Earl rockets up the east coast, a more southerly and southwesterly steering flow will develop returning moisture and chances of rain to the area. So, enjoy this afternoon!

 

Today's forecast:

Naples  Partly Cloudy; High 91
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy; High 93
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy; High 93
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy; High 91
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy; High 92
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 91
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 90
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy; High 91

 

Have a great Thursday!

 

Brian

Brian: Earl.. a picture is worth at least a thousand words... wow. Turn to north should begin soon...

Brian: Latest recon finding 140 kt+ flight level wind in Earl... Earl still a Category 4 hurricane...

 

Scott: Dry today, you can thank Earl for this. But for how long?

Earl is providing us with a dry day across SWFL. Another dry day expected tomorrow. Earl is now a cat 4 hurricane with wind at 135 mph, moving to the NW at 17 mph. Earl will come very close to the outer banks of North Carolina. The eye itself may not make landfall in the Carolinas but they will feel huge impacts from a major hurricane.

 

Also watching T.S. Fiona which will have no impact on the US. Fiona turning to the northeast in the next day or so and dissipating quickly.

 

Newly formed Gaston in the Atlantic a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa. To early to tell if Gaston will threaten the US. As of now, computer models want to slowly develop this storm and move it in a WNW direction. Stay tunned.

 

For us tomorrow, dry again and warm, less wind too. A chance of rain by Friday. But more rain in the forecast by Labor day Monday..

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Earl = Dry

As expected, Earl is driving drier, more stable air into the area. The drier than average pattern will reverse by the Labor day Weekend, so expect a few more rain areas by Saturday and Sunday. Early risers and roosters will be able to enjoy one more very pleasant morning. - Jim

A New Tropical Depression Forms in the Eastern Atlantic

Tropical Depression #9 has formed in the eastern Atlantic off the west coast of Africa. Winds are currently at 35 mph with movement to the west at 15 mph. TD #9 may become our next named storm, Gaston, by the end of the day today or some time tomorrow.

Large and powerful Hurricane Earl continues to head for the Mid-Atlantic coast and will likely provide a glancing blow to the Outer Banks of North Carolina Thursday night and early Friday...though a slight deviation in the forecast track to the west would bring the center of Earl over coastal North Carolina. The Outer Banks have not experienced a land-falling hurricane since Isabel in 2003. Hurricane Earl will then threaten the Northeastern coastline and New England as the Labor Day weekend approaches.

Tropical Storm Fiona is located just north of the Leeward Island with winds of 60 mph. The lifetime of Fiona is a question at this point, as Fiona will be impacted by wind shear provided by the outflow of Hurricane Earl that may cause Fiona to weaken and eventually dissolve over weekend.

The next full advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5pm and Chief Meteorologist Jim Farrell will have that data on WINK News Now at 5pm.

Have a great day,
Lauren

Brian: Fiona now a 60 mph tropical storm....

Quick update.. just after I sent that last blog post the new advisory (8 AM) on Fiona came in.. it's now a 60 mph tropical storm. This is all part of what I was mentioning with respect to Fiona "separating" from Earl. Less outflow means less sinking air means strengthening.

 

Brian

Brian: Earl A Close Call for New England, Watching Fiona & 98L

Good morning! A lot to get to this morning in the tropics:

 

Hurricane Earl

Often, strong hurricanes undergo weakening and strengthening cycles and it appears that's what happened overnight with Earl. Make no mistake about it though, Earl is still a powerful storm with Category 3 125 mph wind. Earl may also be feeling the effects of some enhanced southwesterly wind shear to its north -- this wind shear may be helping some dry air located west of the storm to work into the circulation. That said, as I write this the eye is awfully impressive on satellite and it's not out of the question that Earl will make one more attempt at restrengthening back to a Category 4 before beginning a weakening trend as it approaches the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

 

The forecast track we've talked about the last several days essentially remains on target. Earl will get dangerously close to eastern North Carolina and, later, eastern New England. The saving grace for folks on the east coast is an upper level trough now moving through the east-central United States. This trough will erode a strong high now over the Northeast and ultimately allow Earl to bend north and then northeast -- paralleling the coast. That said, high seas and high wind is expected from the Carolinas northward with tropical storm force wind likely through eastern North Carolina north into New England along the coast. If the central US trough moves just a little bit slower, though, there is still a chance Earl could make a landfall on either eastern North Carolina or Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Right now, though, I think this is unlikely -- although Earl will get mighty close!

 

Tropical Storm Fiona

Fiona slowed down overnight and is now moving at less than 15 mph to the west northwest. Fiona is now affecting the very same areas Earl did just 36 hours or so ago -- the islands of the northeastern Caribbean. Fiona was moving so fast the past day or two that it had trouble gaining its own identity compared to Earl -- Earl was so strong that its outflow (sinking air) was crushing the convection attempting to develop around Fiona's center. The storms are not in as much competition this morning, though, as there nows a greater distance between the two. As a result, Fiona's wind is now up to 45 mph as of the latest advisory from the NHC.

 

Fiona's strength likely won't change much over the next day or two as it remains too close to Earl. If Fiona slows down, though, with environmental conditions otherwise favorable for strengthening, Fiona will begin to become more organized. Many track questions remain with Fiona: a storm moving more slowly is less likely to be able to grab onto Earl's coattails and push out to sea. In fact, I think it's entirely possible Fiona will stall for a time this weekend north/east of the Bahamas as it just misses its "train out of town" with Earl and is left behind in weak steering flow. Most likely, this stall will happen to far to the north to be of any consequence to southwest Florida though so, at this time, I don't expect Fiona to affect us. However, Fiona is worth watching over the next couple of days!

 

Most likely, Fiona will stall near the Bahamas before ultimately being picked up by a departing trough along the east coast early next week. If it gets missed by this trough, though, it is possible Fiona could get steered back toward the west.

 

Invest 98L

A strong tropical wave is located in the central Atlantic, about a thousand miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is showing increased signs of organization and, as of 8 AM, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded it to a "high chance" of development in the next 48 hours. Essentially, this wave could become our next tropical cyclone at any time. The wave will track westward under the influence of high pressure and be located still east of the Windward Islands 5 days from now; there is plenty of time to watch this wave. The hurricane models are indicating a good chance of development/strengthening with this wave while some of our other models are less than impressed with it. Stay tuned!

 

Brian

 

Brian: Breezy & mainly dry today; highs in the lower 90's...

Good morning! On the western side of the circulation of Hurricane Earl, drier air will remain in place today across the Florida peninsula allowing for only a few isolated showers. The breeze stays up today but will start to ease off some tomorrow; however, the drier air remains for Thursday. By Friday, the chance of rain will start to increase again as the flow turns more southwesterly. This southwest flow plus upper level moisture will likely allow for a chance of rain both in the morning and in the afternoon over the Labor Day weekend.

 

Today's forecast:

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 92
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 93
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 93
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 92
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 92
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 90
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 90
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Breezy; High 91

 

Have a great day!

 

Brian

Brian: Fiona now a 45 mph tropical storm as of 5 AM Wednesday

Brian: Earl 5 AM Advisory... Category 3 with wind at 125 mph... will get very close to Eastern NC