Brian: Collier Coastal Showers Weakening..

The showers that were around Marco Island and Belle Meade over the last half hour to 45 minutes have weakened and are falling apart as I write this. Essentially, they've lost the support of the unstable air over the Gulf and, once over the more stable air over land, are dying. This pattern will repeat itself for any additional showers that try to move onshore over the next hour or two. Radar updates continue on WINK-TV.. otherwise, the rest of the area starts dry and warm this morning with temperatures in the 70's.

 

Brian

Brian: A few coastal showers in Collier this morning... more inland storms later today

There are a few showers this morning south of coastal Collier County that are moving toward the coast line in the weak southeasterly flow at the steering level. Recently, there were a few showers nearby to Marco Island, these are now moving northward along CR-951 headed toward US-41.. if it holds together long enough, we may see some showers move as far north as the Alley/Golden Gate. Generally, though, the trend will be for these showers to fall apart as they spend more time over land.

 

Early this afternoon, we may see some showers and storms near the coastline but, again, most of this activity will push inland with time this afternoon as the deep steering currents are from the southwest. That means the highest chance of rain later today will be from near Immokalee to Lehigh Acres to Arcadia. A similar setup for tomorrow with morning coastal showers near the Lee Island Coast and coastal Collier; more widespread coastal showers are a possibility on Friday and Saturday mornings as an upper level disturbance moves by.

 

Here are today's forecast numbers:

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 89
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 91
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Hot & Humid; High 91
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Hot & Humid; High 91
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Hot & Humid; High 91
Hendry Co. Clouds & Sun  Scattered PM Storms; High 89
Glades Co. Clouds & Sun  Scattered PM Storms; High 88
DeSoto Co. Clouds & Sun  Scattered PM Storms; High 89

 

Have a great Wednesday!

 

Brian

More Rain

Welcome to the 1st day of June and the 2010 Hurricane Season!  A coastal morning shower and an anywhere afternoon thunderstorm will be possible the next 3 days as the steering currents will direct tropical moisture toward SW Florida. - Jim

Brian: Heavier showers and storms affecting Immokalee now...

A batch of heavier showers and storms are pushing north along SR-29 now, affecting Immokalee. This will move into south Hendry County over the next few minutes. Elsewhere, most of the rain is isolated along and east of I-75 through Lee and Charlotte County. Expect this to continue over the next couple of hours. Jim will have the latest tonight at 5 on WINK!

 

Brian

Brian: Showers developing across inland southwest Florida and Collier County..

A few showers have formed over Collier County (both near the coast and inland) and elsewhere across inland southwest Florida over the last hour or so as the atmosphere continues to heat up and become more unstable. Expect these showers, and eventually storms, to be very slow moving toward the north. Forecast still is on track for the next few days with increasing chances of rain earlier in the day along the coast and later in the day inland as we move toward mid-week.

 

Also, the National Hurricane Center is now giving the remnants of Agatha in the western Caribbean a 10% chance of developing over the next 48 hours (exceedingly unlikely). While the environment is favorable near the thunderstorms associated with Agatha's remnants now, it is extremely unfavorable just to the north over the Florida Straits where there is very high wind shear. I'll have the latest on 6 TV in just a few minutes!

 

Brian

Brian: 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today

The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is underway and it is not underway with what I'd call a completely quiet start. There are several batches of showers and storms in the Caribbean, most notably those associated with the remnants of Pacific storm Agatha off the coast of Mexico. However, none of these areas are likely to develop into anything. The most "threatening" area is that in the western Caribbean (Agatha's remnants), however, wind shear is very high just north of these remnants and that will prevent any redevelopment. Some of the tropical moisture from Agatha should head in our general direction Wed-Fri (you can already see the rain this morning going in the Florida Straits) and help increase our chance of rain along the afternoon Gulf breezes, but that's about it.

 

In the month of June, we generally look at the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the Atlantic just off the southeast coast for development (see the top image of typical June Atlantic storm tracks - courtesy NOAA). On average, we end up with one named storm every couple of years in the Atlantic during the month of June. Nothing appears likely to develop over the next 7-10 days over the Atlantic though as shear remains high over the Gulf and, later, the Caribbean according to most of our models. This year, we may get development farther east earlier in the season owing to warmer water in the central Atlantic, but here to there's nothing I'm really concerned about right now.

 

Last week, we got the forecast from NOAA for 14-23 named storms. Tomorrow, we'll get the updated forecast for Colorado State (the last one, issued in April, called for 15 named storms). I'll have that for you tomorrow.

 

Brian

Brian: Some showers south of Marco Island this morning, most will stay offshore..

Good morning and welcome to the start of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season (more on that later). We're starting this morning with a few showers and storms across Florida Bay between the Keys and south Collier as moisture associated with the remnants of Pacific storm Agatha makes its way to the north. I think most of these showers will stay offshore this morning but I can't rule out a quick shower or two this morning from Marco Island to Everglades City.

 

Later today, that moisture continues to push to the north and with a light south-southwest steering level wind, we should see quite a few showers and storms develop along the afternoon Gulf breeze -- mainly right along and east of I-75. There might be a few more coastal showers today in Collier and south Lee Counties. Otherwise, expect another hot and humid afternoon with highs in the lower 90's; with the humidity factored in, it will feel like near 100 later today!

 

For the rest of the week, some of our models are now backing off on the chance of rain/surge of tropical moisture for Wednesday - Friday. For now, with steering level wind out of the south, I don't see any reason why we won't see more moisture moving into the area and with the Gulf breeze, this should provide more than enough lift for quite a few storms to develop. We will probably see some coastal showers as well Wednesday and Thursday in Collier County, and through more of the area into Friday and Saturday. Drier weather moves in for the second half of the weekend.

 

Here's today's forecast:

Naples  Clouds & Sun  Isolated Storms; High 90
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 92
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Hot & Humid; High 92
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Hot & Humid; High 92
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Hot & Humid; High 92
Hendry Co. Clouds & Sun  Scattered PM Storms; High 90
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 90
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 91

 

Have a great Tuesday!

 

Brian