Brian: Low clouds and fog this morning, an isolated storm this afternoon

Welcome to Friday! A light breeze this morning and high humidity is helping some fog and low clouds develop across southwest Florida. Visibilities are down near 5 miles in Fort Myers and Naples; in Charlotte County, the visibility is just a quarter mile at the Charlotte County Airport in Punta Gorda. The low clouds and fog will burn off as we head toward mid morning giving way to a partly cloudy to mostly sunny sky. Again today with enough moisture around and a weak upper level disturbance moving overhead, there will be a few isolated storms well east of I-75 by late afternoon. In fact, one storm yesterday managed to drop about two inches of rain in Clewiston! It's a similar story today.

 

Over the weekend, drier air pushes in aloft and this should cut off the chance of rain for tomorrow. Mostly sunny on Saturday after some morning fog with highs near 90. For Mother's Day, we'll squeak a weak cold front through -- rather than a "cold" front, we could more accurately call this a "dewpoint front;" it will lower the humidity a bit for Sunday afternoon and most of next week. It remains hot though with highs near 90!

 

That front will usher in some important wind changes for about 24-36 hours across the northern Gulf that could impact the future travels of the Gulf oil slick. More on that later!

 

Brian

Brian: A shift in the wind possible this weekend... Watching the Oil Slick

Just a quick update here.. I've been mentioning a front that will move through Saturday night and early on Sunday ushering in some slightly less humid air to SWFL for Mother's Day. This is great for those of us with outdoor plans but, as it relates to the Gulf oil slick, it does pose some concerns for the eastern and southern Gulf of Mexico. The reason? The wind direction will shift and be more northerly for a couple of days (late Saturday night through Monday afternoon/night before shifting back to the east) and this potentially could allow the oil slick to get tied into the Gulf loop current (see yesterday's blog post about this!). If this happens, the potential would be there for the oil slick and the tar balls, etc. within it to be pushed toward the south in that 3-5 MPH current. Now, remember, the loop current passes about 200 miles west of SWFL. Ultimately, this is a greater concern for the Keys and the east coast. But you may begin to hear about increased concerns that the oil slick may start traveling through the eastern Gulf over the weekend and early next week. We'll stay on top of it for you!

 

Brian

Brian: Another warm/humid start.. 70's.. near 90 today, a shower or storm near the Lake

Same old, same old this morning! Thursday is dawning as our fourth straight morning with low clouds and fog developing near daybreak as the humidity remains very high and the wind is calm. Just like the past few days, the low clouds should thin as we head toward mid-morning giving way to a partly cloudy sky inland and a mostly sunny sky along the coast. Similar set up to yesterday for this afternoon -- a few isolated showers/storms will develop near Lake Okeechobee very late this afternoon and then head over to the east coast; otherwise, it's dry. Highs today range from the mid to upper 80's at the coast to the low 90's inland.

 

Slightly drier air will move in aloft for tomorrow and Saturday and, despite some of our models painting in rain chances near the Lake, we should stay dry. It will be hot with highs near 90 each day. I'm still thinking that a weak cold front will slip through on Mother's Day morning Sunday with just a few clouds.. and not much in the way of cooler air. But.. it should turn a little less humid for Mom's Day in the afternoon!

 

Hot and humid weather returns by Tuesday next week as a new ridge of high pressure builds in. More details coming up on 6TV starting at 7.. see you there!

 

Brian

Scott: Warm again today! Highs in the low 90's and upper 80's. A few showers popping up inland. Radar on WINK!

I few showers are popping up near the lake this evening! Most of the rain light and is drifting east. It was another warm if not hot day again. Tomorrow a weak front to the north is stalling out, which means we may see a few more showers or even storms in the afternoon. Highs are expected to reach the low 90's in many areas. Hot and dry for the weekend. Details on WINK! Join me at 7 & 10pm.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Warm

A partly cloudy, warm evening will be followed by mostly clear sky tonight with some haze by morning.  Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and warm with an inland shower possible. - Jim

Brian: What If the Oil Slick Hits the Gulf Loop Current? Images...

 

Brian: Gulf Oil Spill - What If? Gulf loop current & future of the slick...

Good morning! One of the questions we've been getting is what could be the worst case scenario for southwest Florida if the oil spill continues to grow in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Ultimately, for us, there are two things to watch: wind direction and the whether the oil slick gets tied into the Gulf loop current. The wind direction continues to be favorable to keep the oil slick away from the Gulf loop current -- a southerly flow that is only slowly pushing the oil toward some of the senstive areas in SE Lousiana, MS and AL. Besides, Gulf currents are generally very weak in the vicinity of the oil slick absent any strong surface wind.. which is why it's been a couple of weeks since the oil rig explosion yet we're still largely in a "watch and wait" phase with respect to where the oil slick goes.

 

The big player, though, is the Gulf loop current. Right now, the oil slick remains well north of the loop current -- a warm ribbon of water that flows quickly through the Gulf of Mexico, from the Caribbean, and then out through the Florida Straits toward the east coast. As long as the oil slick stays way from this current (which moves at 3-5 MPH.. sounds slow, doesn't it? But relative to the mean water flow through the rest of the Gulf -- this is quite fast!), there are really no concerns here in SWFL. But what if the oil slick expands southward or is pushed southward by a northerly wind (possibly this weekend over the northern Gulf).. or the Gulf loop current expands farther to the north?

 

The good news for us is that the loop current passes about 175 - 200 miles to the west of SWFL. Thus, absent a strong westerly flow, I think the direct impacts on our beaches here in the area would be minimal.. offshore, deep-sea fishing would be another story, potentially. The bigger concern would be down the line through the Florida Straits, the Keys, and SE FL as this warm ribbon of water passes much closer to their beaches. With water flowing at 3-5 MPH on average through the loop current, it would only take approximately 5-6 days for some oil to reach the Florida Straits.. so the key is how long can the oil slick remain separated from the current! With a shift in the wind (briefly) in the northern Gulf this weekend, it could get close!

 

Brian