As of 11am this morning, Tropical Storm Emily is looking a bit disorganized as it tracks to the West at 14mph. Sustained winds are at 50 mph as it swirls just to the south of the island of Hispaniola. The latest track has Emily crossing over Haiti tonight and clipping the eastern portion of Cuba early Friday morning. As it moves over some rugged terrain, it will weaken slightly, but as it moves back out over the warmer waters it will begin to reintensify as it approaches the Bahamas on Friday. Since the latest forecast track has shifted more to the west, parts of SWFL still remain in the cone of uncertainty. So, with that being said, we still have to closely monitor the track of Emily over the next few days. Our weekend forecast all depends on the track...if Emily shifts a bit more to the east, we will actually see some slightly drier weather.
-KM
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
8 AM Update on Emily
Little has changed in Tropical Storm Emily since 5 PM Tuesday. As of 8 AM Wednesday, the storm has sustained winds of 50 mph and is heading westward. We are expecting the storm to move northwestward later this afternoon and evening, directly impacting Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Because of Hispaniola's mountainous terrain, Tropical Storm Emily is forecast to weaken but re-intensify as it moves over the Caribbean's warm water. The storm track continues to move east and away from the Florida coastline. Collier and Lee counties are no longer in the 5-day forecast cone, but Highlands, Glades and Hendry remain on the outskirts. The storm of course bears watching as forecasts can and do change, but as of now, the storm is not expected to directly impact Florida.
-KW
-KW
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Emily is still a TS. But the forecast track has moved more to the east! Drier this weekend!
Emily will be steered by a large trough developing off the east coast. This should keep it our in the Atlantic off the east coast of Florida. That means drier weather for us Sunday through Monday. Stay tuned!
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH EMILY...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REMAIN 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME INCREASE
IN THE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT DATA FROM THE AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NOT YET
WELL DEFINED AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
YESTERDAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 45 KNOTS AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE
EMILY MOVES OVER HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IF EMILY
SURVIVES THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST
TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION ONCE THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST OR CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE GFS...WHICH
DISSIPATED EMILY IN THE TWO PREVIOUS RUNS HAS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
STORM MOVING EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS IN THE 12 UTC RUN.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.
SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND HAS BEEN REFORMING
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS THAT EMILY HAS RESUMED A WESTWARD TRACK AND
IS NOW MOVING ABOUT 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTING
EASTWARD. THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN SPEED. MOST OF THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS EMILY MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST.
--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH EMILY...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REMAIN 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME INCREASE
IN THE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT DATA FROM THE AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NOT YET
WELL DEFINED AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
YESTERDAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 45 KNOTS AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE
EMILY MOVES OVER HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IF EMILY
SURVIVES THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST
TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION ONCE THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST OR CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE GFS...WHICH
DISSIPATED EMILY IN THE TWO PREVIOUS RUNS HAS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
STORM MOVING EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS IN THE 12 UTC RUN.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.
SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND HAS BEEN REFORMING
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS THAT EMILY HAS RESUMED A WESTWARD TRACK AND
IS NOW MOVING ABOUT 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTING
EASTWARD. THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN SPEED. MOST OF THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS EMILY MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST.
--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist
Watching Tropical Storm Emily
We're keeping a close eye on Tropical Storm Emily as it begins its turn northwestward. Southwest Florida is in the 5 day forecast cone, and this storm bears watching. While Tropical Storm Emily is expected to strengthen, the storm is forecast to remain a tropical storm and not intesify to hurricane strength. Regardless of its exact track, we can expect increased cloudiness and showers and storms Friday, Saturday and Sunday. For today and Wednesday watch for scattered storms, especially this afternoon with a high close to the seasonal average.
-KW
Monday, August 1, 2011
Tropical Storm Emily has formed and we are in the cone!
Even the NHC is having a hard time with the forecast.. Stay tuned for this one.. My thinking is a stronger westerly track, which could put it in the gulf..
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOW THAT A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FINALLY FORMED NEAR THE ISLAND
OF DOMINICA...MARKING THE FORMATION OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF AROUND
45 KT IN DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER. AS EVIDENCED BY THE
AMOUNT OF TIME IT TOOK THIS SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A SINGLE
CENTER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR
APPEARS TO BE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 50 PERCENT OR
LESS AS SEEN IN THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THEN ASSUMES THAT
EMILY WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HISPANIOLA IN 48 HOURS OR SO.
BEYOND THAT TIME...IF EMILY SURVIVES THE INTERACTION WITH THE
RUGGED TERRAIN ON THE ISLAND...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
IVCN CONSENSUS BY DAY 5. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE PRESENT ORGANIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 275/15. EMILY IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW EMILY TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN A LITTLE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND
DEPENDS ON WHAT SHAPE EMILY IS IN AFTER IT MOVES PAST HISPANIOLA
AND HOW MUCH THE RIDGE RE-BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A
WEAKER CYCLONE FARTHEST TO THE WEST SHOWING A TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...WHILE THE GFDL AND THE NEW 18Z GFS ARE FARTHEST TO THE
RIGHT WITH A TRACK NEAR OR EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME. GIVEN THE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO
REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE ERROR OF THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ABOUT 250 MILES AT 5 DAYS.
GIVEN THE FORECAST PARTICULARS...A VARIETY OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.
--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOW THAT A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FINALLY FORMED NEAR THE ISLAND
OF DOMINICA...MARKING THE FORMATION OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF AROUND
45 KT IN DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER. AS EVIDENCED BY THE
AMOUNT OF TIME IT TOOK THIS SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A SINGLE
CENTER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR
APPEARS TO BE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 50 PERCENT OR
LESS AS SEEN IN THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THEN ASSUMES THAT
EMILY WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HISPANIOLA IN 48 HOURS OR SO.
BEYOND THAT TIME...IF EMILY SURVIVES THE INTERACTION WITH THE
RUGGED TERRAIN ON THE ISLAND...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
IVCN CONSENSUS BY DAY 5. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE PRESENT ORGANIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 275/15. EMILY IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW EMILY TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN A LITTLE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND
DEPENDS ON WHAT SHAPE EMILY IS IN AFTER IT MOVES PAST HISPANIOLA
AND HOW MUCH THE RIDGE RE-BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A
WEAKER CYCLONE FARTHEST TO THE WEST SHOWING A TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...WHILE THE GFDL AND THE NEW 18Z GFS ARE FARTHEST TO THE
RIGHT WITH A TRACK NEAR OR EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME. GIVEN THE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO
REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE ERROR OF THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ABOUT 250 MILES AT 5 DAYS.
GIVEN THE FORECAST PARTICULARS...A VARIETY OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.
--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist
Watching the tropics
Our weather through Thusday will feature partly cloudy sky with scattered thunderstorms. Beyond Thursday, our weather will depend on the strength and track of the tropical disturbance we've been watching for over one week. Stay tuned. - Jim
Afternoon Clouds, A Few Storms
Some high cloudines this morning, is making for a beautiful & colorful sunrise. It's a warm and muggy start to the day with temperatures already approaching the 80° mark. We'll continue to see the clouds bubble up this afternoon with a few storms popping along the breeze. Hopefully, you'll be one of the lucky ones to see the rain since temperatures will be on the hot side in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the low 100's. In the tropics we are monitoring an area of disturbed weather just east of the Lesser Antilles. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a high chance (90%) of development, as conditions will become a bit more conducive. So, by later today, we could have our 5th Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm, which would be named Emily. The model plots this morning are in agreement, taking this system over Hispaniola and near the Bahamas by the end of the week. There's still a lot of uncertainty in the track of this system and should be watched closely over the next few days.
-KM
-KM
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