White Sand IS Our White Christmas

Dense fog blanketed many locations in SW FL this morning and similar conditions are forecast for your Christmas morning as well. Highs this afternoon will again be in the middle 80s, roughly 10 degrees warmer than average! High temperatures in the 80s will stick around through Monday before a cold front passes through Tuesday (upping our rain chances for that day). Starting Wednesday, more seasonable temperatures (highs in the 70s) will filter in.

Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah!

-Katie

A Warm Week

Looks like a warm week, highs near 80. Getting ready for a warm, humid Christmas day! - Jim

It's beginning to feel a lot like Christmas...or is it?

The holiday spirit is in full swing, despite highs this afternoon forecast in the upper 70s. A weak cold front will pass through late tonight and filter in drier air, meaning overnight lows will be a bit cooler and in the 50s tonight and tomorrow. By the way Thursday is the first day of winter, and highs will be in the lower 80s! (A good chance for rain isn't in the picture for the next 7 days.)

-KW

Bring on the Lower 80s!

While Thursday was a bit cool all around, temperatures have warmed and warmed quickly! We're expecting a high around 80 today (Friday) and the lower 80s over the weekend. But with increased temperatures and increased dew points there will be the chance for isolated showers. Expect the humidity to climb into the weekend and keep that umbrella on hand in case an isolated shower attempts to dampen your day.

-Katie

Warm

Continued mostly sunny and warm the next few afternoons with less wind. - Jim

Active 2011 Hurricane Season Comes to an End

Today, November 30th, officially ends the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This year's active season of 19 named tropical systems will go down as the third-highest total since records began in 1851 and is well above the average of 11. Of the 19 tropical storms, seven became hurricanes, three of which became major hurricanes (Cat 3 or higher) that remained offshore. And as far as land-falling major hurricanes, 2011 marks six straight years without one hitting the U.S. The last one to do so was Wilma in 2005. Irene was the lone hurricane to hit the United States in 2011, and the first to do so since Ike struck Texas in 2008. Irene was the most significant tropical system to strike the Northeast since Hurricane Bob in 1991.

-KW

As promised................

Colder air will be here tonight. Most of SW Florida will wake up to temperatures in the 50s tomorrow morning, 40s Thursday morning. Continued cooler than average all week. - Jim

Cold front arrives later this evening! Isolated light shower possible followed by much cooler weather for the week.

Watching a cold front moving into SWFL. We could see a few showers moving through but the big change is the much cooler weather to follow. We will see lows falling into the upper 50s to low 60s Tuesday morning. The coldest air of the season arrives Wednesday morning as lows fall into the upper 40s. We will see plently of sun starting Wednesday. This will start a gradual warming trend, low 80s by the weekend.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Cold Front

Showers will accompany todays cold front. Get ready for a coooool week with lows in the 50's and highs in the 70's. - Jim

Wet Weather on the One of the Busiest Travel Days

We're tracking a cold front that is bringing rainfall from Louisiana to the upper Midwest and into the Ohio River Valley. Much of the Florida peninsula will stay dry today, but watch for scattered rainfall tomorrow (Monday) here in SW FL. If you're traveling today and are worried about travel delays, check out http://www.fly.faa.gov/flyfaa/usmap.jsp.

-KW

Cool tonight! Plenty of sun in to the weekend. But a much bigger cool down on the way next week.

Enjoy the weekend. We will have a few cool starts but with plenty of sun highs will get back into the low 80s.  Big changes for next week! A much bigger cold front will move through late Sunday into Monday morning. This will bring us a chance of rain Sunday night. Monday the cooler and drier weather will be moving in. Overnight lows Tuesday will fall into the upper to middle 40s. Highs onlt in the low 70s. Not much rain is expected with this next cold front. less than a .25". This front will just be bringing us much cooler weather. Enjoy!

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Cold Front

Another cold front will arrive tonight. Perfect timing for a sunny, less humid Thanksgiving Holiday. - Jim

Brief Cool Down for Today

On the back side of a cold front that passed through Thursday, cooler and drier air is filtering into SW FL. The breeze continues to pick up from the northeast. Because of the wind a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Saturday morning. And that wind is driving in moisture from the Atlantic in the form of cloud cover, and a few isolated showers can't be ruled out, but accumulation more than a few hundredths isn't expected. For your weekend, temps will heat right back up to the middle 80s, warmer than average!

-KW

Isolated Rain Expected This Afternoon

Patchy dense fog in southwest Florida continues to lift, and partly cloudy skies are expected this morning. Increasing cloud cover ahead of a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon. Significant rainfall is not anticipated. With the front to our south, Friday will be a bit breezy but cooler with highs around 80.

-KW

For Those Missing Summer...

...this forecast is for you. Warmer than average temperatures, combined with dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s, will create heat index values this afternoon in the 90s. Even tomorrow, warm and sticky conditions are in the forecast ahead of an approaching front. As this front sags to our south on Friday, slightly cooler and drier air will filter in, but warmer than average temps will return Saturday afternoon and stick around!

-KW

Warm and Humid

This will be a warmer week than last with higher humidity. Afternoon high temperatures will hover around the mid 80s. - Jim

Brrrrr...But Big Changes Are on the Way

Quite a cool start here in SW FL this Saturday morning. We started the day with temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s, 10+ degrees cooler than average! Highs this afternoon will warm into the mid 70s, still cooler than average but warmer than yesterday's upper 60s and low 70s. Thanks to a south wind returning, temperatures will warm into the lower 80s by Sunday and by Monday be warmer than average and in the middle 80s! As a matter of fact increased humidity combined with these hot temperatures may feel a bit summer-like midweek.

-KW

Cold Front

The cold front will arrive tonight and cooler air will be in place through Saturday morning. Temperatures will warm next week. - Jim

Sean

Sub Tropical Storm Sean will be moving farther away from SW Florida as a new cold front arrives Thursday night. We will have a cool weekend. - Jim

Subtropical Storm Sean

Earlier this morning, the National Hurricane Center deemed the area of low pressure spinning between the Bahamas and Bermuda as a subtropical storm. Sean will not be an issue for Southwest Florida as our next cold front moving in late Thursday will sweep it out to sea. Temperatures in the morning will remain in the 60s with daytime highs climbing back into the lower half of the 80s. A cooler weekend is on tap with plentiful sunshine and chilly overnight temps -- low 50s by by Saturday morning.
-KM

Increasing Clouds, Maybe a Sprinkle...

High pressure is in control of our weather as it continues to move across the Mid-Atlantic states today. That, combined with an area of lower pressure (non-tropical in nature) around 400 miles southwest of Bermuda, is keeping us in a breezy northeasterly flow. That means a sunny sky this morning will transition into a mix of sun and clouds by the afternoon, with the possibility of a sprinkle or two. We will see a few more comfortable mornings, with warmer afternoons as daytime temperatures climb into the lower half of the 80s. An approaching cold front on Thursday will increase the clouds a bit with a small chance for spotty showers. Once the front pulls to the south of the area, expect cooler and drier conditions to filter in by Friday with a sunny weekend in store.
KM

Cooooooler

Temperatures will run 10 degrees cooler than average tonight, 5 degrees below average both weekend afternoon days. Get ready for an extended period of low humidity. - Jim

Next Front: Friday

Another weak cold front will arrive late Friday. That will set us up for cool mornings and sunny days this weekend. - Jim

October 2011 Ranks as the 7th Wettest..

No doubt about it the month of October was a wet one...Here's how the month stacked up against the rest.

The Top 10 Wettest Octobers for Fort Myers:

1. 19.70" in 1924

2. 12.04" in 1959

3. 11.91" in 1951

4. 11.08" in 1921

5. 11.03" in 1969

6. 10.80" in 1921

7. 10.73" in 2011***

8. 9.26" in 1910

9. 8.34" in 1952

10. 8.17" in 2005

Thanks Annie

The sun'll come out Tomorrow Bet your bottom dollar That tomorrow There'll be sun! Just thinkin' about Tomorrow Clears away the cobwebs, And the sorrow 'Til there's none! When I'm stuck a day That's gray, And lonely, I just stick out my chin And Grin, And Say, Oh The sun'll come out Tomorrow So ya gotta hang on'Til tomorrow Come what may Tomorrow! Tomorrow! I love ya Tomorrow! You're always A day A way!

Rain Moving In

Throughout the midday hours we will continue to see a band of moisture working its way across Lee County. Expect light rain with pockets of heavier downpours the rest of the afternoon as this line drifts more to the south and east. The rain will begin to taper off by 5pm today, but we could see a few lingering showers as those ghosts and goblins head out for their treats. Late this evening, clouds will begin to decrease as drier air begins to filter in across the region. This will set up for a nice looking Tuesday and beyond with more sunshine and comfortable humidity levels. Have a safe and Happy Halloween!
-KM

Moisture Returns

Slightly drier air was able to filter in behind yesterday's cold front, allowing for a cooler start this morning. Moisture will be on the increase tonight, keeping the mostly cloudy conditions around along with a few showers. It won't be quite as cool tonight as temperatures only dip into the upper 60s. A cloudy sky will give way to scattered rain throughout the day tomorrow, keepng temperatures in the low 80s.
KM

Record Rainfall in Fort Myers

With yesterday's rains we set a new record daily maximum rainfall in Fort Myers. Page Field recorded 2.01" of rainfall, which broke the old record of 1.12" set back in 1913. This evening we are looking at a mostly cloudy sky with a few sprinkles/light showers. With a northerly wind in place tonight and a cold front sagging to the south, expect mainly dry conditions overnight with cooler temperatures dropping into the mid 60s with slightly drier air in place. Sunday calls for a mix of sun & clouds, with isolated rain mainly to south with a better chance of scattered rain by Monday.
KM

Clearing Expected Saturday PM

The cold front has cleared Tallahassee and is on its way to SW FL! While we will deal with on and off showers through the first half of the day, expect the rain to end and clouds to partially clear this afternoon and evening. Tomorrow should be fairly dry as well, but Halloween isn't looking as spook-tacular with scattered rain in the forecast.

-KW

Cold front

A cold front is on the way. It will become less humid and cooler beginning tomorrow night. Clouds and showers will persist through the weekend. - Jim

Rina Downgraded to a Depression

What was Hurricane Rina is now a Tropical Depression in the eastern Yucatan peninsula. With sustained winds of 35 mph the storm is forecast to turn eastward tonight and eventually southward. While the storm will never affect the U.S. directly, moisture from Rina continues to surge into southwest Florida, creating mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers. This moisture combined with that of an approaching cold front will give way to a rather wet weekend. The wettest day on tap is forecast to be Saturday; keep that umbrella on hand now through Monday!

-KW

Rina Downgraded to a Tropical Storm; No Threat to U.S.

At 11AM Rina was downgraded to a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. While we will not be directly impacted, this storm is spinning moisture our way in the form of increased cloud cover and stickier dew points. A cold front on it's way through the eastern half of our nation will increase our rain chances Friday through Sunday, and if it stall out over SW FL, Monday. Clouds and rain should clear out by Tuesday.

-KW

Rina continues in the Caribbean. A cold front is still expected to arrive near SW Florida on Saturday. Timing of the frontal arrival will help determine how close Rina gets to South Florida. - Jim

Cold Front on the Way

Rina may get closer to SW Florida, but an a new cold front and high pressure should minimize effects here. - Jim

TROPICAL STORM RINA

Although Rina will stay away from SW Florida this week, humidity will increase by Thursday so there may be a few rain areas by then. - Jim

Another Pleasant Day!

After a cool and crisp start to the morning, temperatures are gradually warming into the lower half of the 80s this afternoon with plenty of sunshine. The pleasant weather will stick around over the next couple of days with an increase in the moisture by Thursday. Our best rain chance will fall on Friday with the approach of a cold front.

Tropical Storm Rina has sustained winds at 45 mph as it swirls in the warm waters of the western Carribbean. It looks like it will strengthen into a category 1 hurricane as early as tomorrow. Something to watch over the next few days.

Can you feel the dry and cool weather over SWFL? Here to stay!!!

Now that the cold front has pushed through we will see our overnight lows fall into the 50s the next few days. Afternoon highs in the 70s. This is the first big cold front of the season that will last several days. A sunny sky for your Friday and Saturday, a few clouds by Sunday.

 

We are keeping an eye on a weak tropical wave in the Caribbean that has the potential to develop into our next depression in the next couple of days. Looks like this one will stay south and move into Central America.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Rain again tonight as the cold front moves closer. Could see a few strong storms.

We have been watching a tropical disturbance in the Gulf that has been spreading rain and a few storms across the area. This disturbance will move over head tonight and will keep the rain in the forecast. Because of this NWS has issued a tornado watch box unitl 10pm for all of SWFL. This means conditions are favorable for possible tornados through the 10 o'clock hour.

 

Tomorrow early morning we will watch the cold front arrive spreading more heavy rain across the region. We can expect another 1" to 1.50" of rain through the early afternoon. Windy weather will bring in drier and cooler weather by the late afternoon.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Another 1 - 3" of Rain Possible

A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico continues to throw copious amounts of tropical moisture across SWFL, that means another soggy afternoon is in store. An additional 1-3" of rain is possible as we head into the late afternoon and evening hours as the rain has picked up in intensity, especially across our coastal areas. A cold front now situated across the Mississippi Valley, will continue to push its way closer to Florida tonight, therefore, we we could see a few stronger storms developing along and ahead of that boundary through early Wednesday morning. Once the front passes to our south, much cooler and drier weather will be with us into the weekend. Overnight lows will dip into the mid 50s by early Friday with plenty of sunshine.
KM

At least 2" expected in SW FL through Wednesday

Wet weather will continue through Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms alongside on and off showers will produce rainfall totals of at least 2" in SW FL. Isolated amounts of 3" or more can't be ruled out, but these rainfall totals are less than previously thought. Despite the new anticipated totals, rising creeks and street flooding are still possible.

A FLOOD WATCH remains in effect for Collier County through 8PM tonight. Remember, never try and drive through an area covered by water. Less than 18 inches of water can move a vehicle, including a truck or SUV. A FLOOD WARNING remains in effect until further notice for the Peace River at Arcadia in Desoto County.

-KW

This Weekend's Forecast...ZOMBIE-rific!

That title is in celebration of tonight's ZOMBICON in downtown Fort Myers, and mother nature must be in the Halloween spirit! Alongside high clouds, we're expecting dry conditions and less humidity through tomorrow.

Moisture will build in for the beginning of the work week; isolated showers are in the forecast for Monday, and the best chance for rain will be Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of an approaching front.

-KW

Dry air has returned to SWFL. Here to stay thru the weekend. The Zombies will love the weather tomorrow night in Ft. Myers.

The cold front has move through SWFL! Dewpoints are dropping and it looks like drier weather in place through Sunday. Enjoy the overnight lows in the 60s and afternoon highs in the mid 80s. You will be seeing a few high clouds blocking out the sun from time to time. Changes by Monday, more humidity moves in and we will see a chance of rain by the afternoon. The next cold front we are tracking will arrive late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Rain chances will increase and the wind, then dry again for next weekend.

 

Zombies will be in dowtown Fort Myers Saturday night.. Watch out, your brains are food!!! Great night for feasting.... ENJOY!

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

A Drop in the Dewpoints!

As of 11am this morning, a weak cold front is now pushing south into Sarasota county. Once the front passses through SWFL, we can expect a drop in the humidity throughout the afternoon hours. With this drier air in place tonight, temperatures will fall into the upper 60s, with a few of our northern and inland communties into the low to mid 60s by early Saturday morning. The lower humidity will stick around for Saturday with pleasant conditions. By early next week, we may see a surge of moisture, which will bring an increase in the rain chances especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

Rain Closer to the Coast...

As of 11am, most of SWFL has remained dry. We do have some cloudiness working its way in across the peninusla, with a cluster of showers moving closer to the coast. Through the mid day hours, the best rain chances will be along the coastal areas across Sarasota and Charlotte counties. Isolated rain will continue through this afternoon with a warm and humid air mass in place. A cold front will work its way down the state tomorrow morning, and by the second half of the day we should start to see some slightly cooler and drier air, which looks to hang around for the weekend.

Coastal Rain

A few coastal rain areas are possible as we head throughout the mid morning hours, especially across Collier county as a weak line of showers continues to drift to the south. A mix of sun and clouds will remain in the forecast this afternoon along with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 80s, but with that onshore wind keeping humidity levels high, it will feel much warmer than what the thermometer is actually reading. A weak cold front will make its way down the state by the end of the week, which will set the stage for some lower humidity and a bit more sunshine for the first half of the weekend.

A Brief Break From Humidity on the Way

A weak cold front currently in the northern part of the state is forecast to slowly but surely trek southward and pass through SW FL late Thurs night. That means sticky air and isolated showers will remain in the picture until then, but Friday afternoon and Saturday will be less humid and mainly dry. While the break will be welcome, it will be brief and humidity is forecast to increase for the beginning of the work week.

-KW

Weak Cold Front

A weak cold front will pass through the region late Thursday. It will not become cool, but the relative humidity will be a little lower on Friday. - Jim

Drying Out...

As an area of low pressure departs to our north, our weather will continue to improve. A southwest flow will be in place tonight, which means we could see a few coastal showers wash ashore overnight and into the morning hours. By the afternoon, look for a mix of sun and clouds with showers shifting inland during the day. Two cold fronts will be making their way across the region on Thursday and Saturday, which will bring lower humidity levels beginning on Friday and lasting into the weekend with plenty of sunhine.
KM

This Dreary Weather Will Be Gone Soon Enough

AR! Not the greatest of days for the Pirate Fest at Fort Myers Beach, but scattered shower activity in southwest FL should taper off this evening and overnight as the low creating this dreary weather pushes northward. Only isolated showers under partly cloudy skies are in the forecast tomorrow. A drier but more humid work week is ahead!

-KW

Rain & Wind

A mostly cloudy sky will stay in place tonight along with some isolated rain areas. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 70s. With an area of low pressure continuing to develop nearby, scattered rain and gusty winds at times will remain in the forecast for Sunday with temperatures hovering into the lower half of the 80s. Improving conditions as we head into the upcoming week, with less wind and more sun.

Record Rainfall in Fort Myers

A record daily rainfall of 3.38" was set at Page Field today. This breaks the old record of 1.98" set back in 1953.

Not the Best Weekend for Boating

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Monday morning as a strong wind out of the northeast will continue to pick up through Saturday afternoon and especially Sunday. Sustained winds at times could exceed 30 mph with gusts higher. This wind will drive in Atlantic moisture, creating a rather dreary weekend with more clouds than sun and scattered showers with isolated storms. Highlands, Glades, and Hendry counties have the best chance of receiving widespread rainfall through Sunday but we all have the chance for picking up something in the rain gauge.

-KW

A few showers are expected this evening. Moving quickly to the west in this strong easterly wind flow. Rain this weekend. :(

Watching a low develop near south Florida. This means rain back in the forecast. You can expect to see scattered rain for your Saturday and Sunday. The wind will be gusty at times. A northeasterly wind up to 20 mph with stronger gusts. Rainfall will be greater on the east coast, but we could see .50", up to an 1" on average across SWFL. The weather looks better for Monday and Tuesday. The low will be moving out by then.

 

The tropics are quiet.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

A few showers in Highlands County. Could see a few showers tomorrow, better chance on Saturday!

Still watching that northeast wind flow that will be as high as 20 mph on your Friday. This will bring in a few showers across southwest Florida. I am thinking that most of us will remain dry. But things change a bit on Saturday and Sunday. Some computers models are trying to develop a low over south Florida by Saturday. If this does happen and we think there is a chance scattered rain will be in the forecast.
--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Dry weather for the rest of the evening. Low humididty will be with us for another day. Rain by the weekend.

Watching a northeast breeze contiune for the next few days. This will keep the drier weather in place for another day or so. But by Friday and into the weekend, more moiture returns. You can expect to feel more humidity return and a few showers will be in the area by then. A weak low is trying to develop south of florida. If this low develops and we expect it to, this will bring rain across the region through the weekend and into early next week. We aren't expecting a lot of rain, less than .50" most likely.

 

The tropics are quiet.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

A Bit of Change...

A fter a comfortable start to the day, temperatures will gradually climb into the mid to upper 80s. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions will prevail, with mainly dry weather through Friday. An increase in the moisture will keep rain chances in the forecast for the weekend.

Still dry

Look for a few more dry days and nights this week before the chance of rain increases by the weekend. - Jim

A Taste of Fall...

Temperatures this morning dropped into the upper 50s across a few northern locations and inland spots, but with plenty of sunshine this afternoon we will see a quick warm up into the mid to upper 80s with lower humidity. This cool & dry airmass that we've been experiencing the last few days, will begin to moderate with an increase in the moisture by late in the week. This will provide us with some isolated rain areas into the weekend.

A Cool Start to the Week...

A clear sky tonight, along with dry air in place and lighter winds, is the perfect recipe for another cool SWFL night. Expect lows to drop into the upper 60s along the coast, with low 60s inland, and even a few upper 50s across our far nothern communties. With that being said, the kids may need to break out the longsleeve shirts for the bus stop early tomorrow morning. By the afternoon, temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s under plenty of sunshine. This fall like air mass will continue to moderate as we head into the middle part of the week, with increasing moisture off the Atlantic. This could bring a few isolated rain areas Friday and into the weekend.

Mother Nature Shows Off a Little Fall Flare

Lows this morning in SW FL ranged from the upper 50s to mid 60s, temperatures that haven't been felt since May! Thanks to a cold front that passed through Saturday, cooler than average temperatures will stick around through the upcoming week, and radar is forecast to remain dry. The chance for isolated afternoon showers appears Friday and Saturday, as a bit more moisture begins to break this dry, fall pattern.

-KW

Our 1st Cold Front of the Season...

A cold front that has moved through SWFL, is bringing some noticable changes with it. Highs today topped out into the mid to upper 80s with plenty of sunshine. Now that drier air has settled into the region, temperatures will quickly drop into the 60s by late tonight and into early Sunday morning, with some of the coolest readings that we have seen since last April. For Sunday, high pressure will continue to build in from the northwest, with pleasant weather continuing and low humidity. The breeze will pick up, especially as we head into the middle part of the work week with mainly dry conditions.

Cold Front Coming

The seasons first cold front will slide through SW Florida tonight. That will help to give us a mostly sunny, less humid weekend. Sunday morning temperatures will start in the 60's, the first of 6 AM's with lows in the 60's. - Jim

Pumpkin Spice Makes Everything Nice

Fall-like weather is rolling toward southwest Florida and beginning Saturday, you will feel a distinct change as dry air filters in behind a passing cold front. This fall blast means highs over the weekend and through the first half of the work week will be in the 80s and morning lows in the 60s! While mainly dry and less humid conditions are in the future, watch for afternoon isolated showers today and Friday and expect highs around 90 with morning lows in the mid 70s.

-KW

Drier weather on the way folks! The weekend looks awesome.. Lower humidity on the way!

A weak cold front will be moving through the area Friday evening. We could see a few showers then but behind the front, drier weather will be moving in. Dewpoints will drop into the low 60s. You will feel the change Saturday and Sunday for sure. This lower humidity will be with us through the begining of next week. There will also be a breeze from the northeast as well. That could bring in a few clouds but no rain in the forecast.

 

Both systems in the tropics will stay in the Atlantic.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

AM Fog, Less Rain

After a soggy start to our Monday, it's the fog, not the rain that's impacting your commute to work this Tuesday morning. Visibilities are being reduced down to 1/2 of a mile at Page Field with visibility at 3/4 of a mile in Punta Gorda. A mix of sun and clouds will remain in the forecast today, with a few isolated showers and storms. Drier weather will continue to build into SWFL for the rest of the work week with mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions and even lower humidity by the weekend.

Heavy Rains Moving Into Collier County this Morning Have Prompted Flood Advisories

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED AN *URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY* FOR WEST CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND UNTIL 200 PM. 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND AREA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR THROUGH 1 PM. ALSO, HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE GULF COAST BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM WHICH WILL SLOW RAINFALL DRAINAGE. AS OF 11 AM SEVERAL ROADS AROUND MARCO ISLAND WERE REPORTED TO BE UNDER WATER OR CLOSED DUE TO WATER INCLUDING SAN MARCO ROAD, BARFIELD DRIVE, AND HEATHWOOD NEAR THE CITY HALL. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY.

Tropical Moisture Stays in Place

Showers are off to an early start again across SWFL on this Sunday. The best chance to see any rain early this morning, will be across our coastal locations. Tropical moisture continues to feed into the region on a moist southwesterly flow, which will lead to more scattered thunderstorms throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Daytime temperatures will remain in the upper 80s with high humidity. It looks like we will be in a holding pattern through Monday, with another round of scattered storms, before some drier air starts to build in by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Ophelia is barely hanging on to tropical storm strength with winds sustained at 40 mph, with no threat to land at this time. Tropical Storm Philippe, currently in the Eastern Atlantic, is packing winds of 45 mph, and the latest forecast cone has Philippe possibly intenisfying into a minimal hurricane by Tuesday, before recurving out to sea.

The Rain is Off to an Early Start...

Eventhough it's the first official weekend of the fall season, it's still warm and humid across SWFL! Tropical moisture remains in place today, and with a southwest flow coming in off the Gulf of Mexico, we will continue to see isolated coastal rain developing this morning, with a better chance for scattered storms this afternoon, especially across our inland communties. This along with a mix of sun and clouds will yield temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90° this afternoon. A similiar set up will be in place for Sunday with coastal morning rain and scattered storms throughout the afternoon. Tropical moisture will be replaced by a drier air mass moving across the peninsula, but not until the middle part of the work week!
-KM

Dear Mother Nature, It's Fall

Lower dew points and small chances for rain tend to constitute fall-like weather, but that isn't forecast to begin until Monday. So for today and through the weekend be prepared for morning and afternoon scattered showers and storms, as well as muggy air creating triple digit heat index values.

-KW

Scattered Storms

Scattered Storms will roam the area today and tomorrow. SOme of the rain could come a little earlier in the day tomorrow. - Jim

So Long Sweet Summer

The final day of summer will live up to its season. More moisture in the atmosphere and at the surface mean hot heat index values this afternoon and scattered showers and storms continuing through the evening. Morning AND afternoon showers and storms are in the forecast for your Friday, Saturday and Sunday before a more fall-like pattern builds in for the beginning of next week.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Ophelia will not threaten Florida in its lifetime, or any land mass for that matter in the near future. Beyond 5 days it's still too early to know definitively whether it will impact another portion of the U.S. coastline.

-KW

Scattered rain

Scattered rain returns through the evening. Tomorrow looks like a repeat with dry conditions in the AM and scattered rain in the PM. - Jim

Rain has returned! Storms today are moving quickly to the NW! More on the way tomorrow.

Watching a lot of moisture return to SWFL by tomorrow and through the rest of the work week. Tropical moisture will give us a good chance of rain in the afternoon and evening. We will see a weak front approaching from the north by the weekend. Looking at slightly drier weather Saturday and Sunday. That front is expected to move through late Monday. Tuesday we may see those dew points drop as drier and cooler weather moves in. There is a chance the front can stall. Stay tuned!

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Wetter Pattern on the Way

Mainly dry conditions will persist for one more day before a wetter pattern settles in as early as Tuesday afternoon. While scattered storms are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, more widespread morning AND afternoon storms are expected for the latter part of the work week.

-KW

A Nice Weekend

It looks to be a nice weekend with partly cloudy sky in the afternoon, clear sky at night. - Jim

Lower humidity and drier weather will be with us for the next couple of days! Enjoy!

Dewpoints were in the 60s for much of the day. That is a big a change from the 70s we see in the summer. The higher the dewpoints the more moisture there is in the atmosphere, which gives us that sticky feeling outside. We do expect the dewpoints to be in the 60s for the next couple of days. A chance of rain back in the forecast by Sunday and into early next week. The rainy season is over so we do not expect to see a lot of rain in the next 7 days.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Dry Air = Fall-like humidity

Lower dewpoint temperatures are cooling us down overnight and also preventing widespread shower and storm activity in the afternoon. But without that activity, SW FL will heat up yet again to warmer than average highs. At least with lower humidities, that high around 93 degrees shouldn't feel unbearably hot. This dry pattern will stick around through Saturday before rain chances begin to pick up on Sunday.

-KW

Drier Air, Less Rain

Mostly sunny conditions will take us into the mid day hours, with a few fair weather cumulus clouds developing during the heat of the day. Our water vapor imagery is showing plenty of dry air "upstairs" in the atmosphere, and this will keep a lid on most of the shower and thunderstorm activity across SWFL. There is a small chance for an isolated storm late this afternoon and into the evening hours, but with the vast majority of us staying dry that means temperatures will climb into the mid 90s. The drier than normal pattern looks stay in place through the end of the work week with increasing rain chances by the weekend - Enjoy!
-KM

Warmer weather for the week! More sun with a lack of rain will bring r highs up into the mid 90s!

Slightly drier weather is here for the next few days. We are watching dry air in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere move overhead for the rest of the week. This means a lack of clouds and rain. Because of drier air we will see highs approach the mid 90s. Also on the flip side if we see a storm pop up it could get strong due to the high temperatures in the mid 90s.

 

Maria continues to move to the north in the Atlantic. No threat to the US.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Mostly dry

Other than an isolated rain area (mainly south half of SW Florida) it looks like a dry evening and a mostly dry week. - Jim

Mostly Sunny Start with a Few Scattered Storms

A mostly sunny start will transition into a partly cloudy afternoon with a few scattered showers & storms lingering into the evening hours. There will be more sunshine and a drop in the rain chances (even lower humidity!) as some drier air works its way down the Florida peninsula through the middle part of the work week. Daytime highs will be running a couple of degrees above average in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows near 73 degrees.

Tropical Storm Maria is swirling just to the north and west of Puerto Rico this morning. As of the 11am advisory, winds are sustained at 50 mph, with a westerly movement at 2mph. The current track of Maria keeps it east of the Bahamas as it makes more of a northerly turn by Tuesday & Wednesday and eventually into the Northern Atlantic, posing no threat to SWFL or the eastern seaboard of the U.S.

A Taste of Fall with Less Humidity

As high pressure builds over the Gulf, we can expect less humidity and small rain chances Tuesday through Friday. Less moisture in the atmosphere also means cooler morning lows and warmer than average afternoon highs. As for today (Monday), expect a dry start with partly cloudy skies and scattered storms building in this afternoon, continuing through the evening.

-KW

The weekend is here. More sun and less rain! Both TS are not heading here. Enjoy your warm weekend!

Good news from the tropics, both tropical storms are not going to head to the USA.

 

The weekend is looking better. More sun and less rain. Looking ahead to next week, much drier air moves in on the west side of Maria. Maria will be out over the Bahamas by Tuesday. Because the storm is to our east, we will see a northerly breezy that will bring us drier air for the middle of the week.  Enjoy the weekend.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

The Wet Pattern Continues for ONE MORE DAY

Friday is not only the end of the work week but also appears to be the end of a pattern that has brought SW FL more clouds than sun and decent rainfall the last several days. Isolated rain is in the picture this morning, especially for our coastal communities, and more widespread activity is forecast for this afternoon. But drier air will filter in this weekend, meaning more sun and less rainfall are in the picture! (Don't rule out your typical afternoon storms, however.)

Tropical Storm Nate is forecast to become a hurricane later today in the Bay of Campeche and make landfall along the Mexican coastline late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Nate will produce 1-3' storm surge and 4-6" of rainfall with isolated amounts of 12" possible. The storm will not threaten the U.S.

Tropical Storm Maria's outer rain bands are reaching the Lesser Antilles, where we are expecting landfall late tonight/early Saturday morning. Puerto Rico is in the forecast track and can expect tropical storm force winds late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. At this time the forecast cone skirts the northeastern Bahamas. It's still too early to tell where and if Maria will affect the eastern seaboard.

Hurricane Katia is moving toward the northeast into the North Atlantic and will fizzle out in the next couple day. High surf in the Northeast is still possible from Katia today.

-KW

TS Nate in the gulf and TS Maria in the Atlantic.. Eyes on Florida? Hmmmmm!

Watching both Nate and Maria closely!

 

Rain is the in the forecast for the morning and afternoon for your Friday. More sun by the weekend. Expect back to normal pattern by the weekend. That means morning sun with afternoon rain.

 

Lets talk a bit about Nate. A very slow moving system in the southern gulf. Wind right now is getting closer to hurricane strength, 70 mph. Since it looks like Nate will spend the next five days over the water we do expect it to become a hurricane really soon. Nate will start moving to the north slowly the next few days. Some of the models place Nate in the middle of the gulf by early next week. If it stalls there, it could possably move closer to Florida. I am feeling pretty good that Nate will start a turn more to the northwest by day four and five. This is a wait and watch system.

 

Maria is a tropical storm that may weaken into a depression the next few days. Either way the five day cone puts Maria over the Bahamas by day five. I am feeling good about the long range models that keep Maria out in the Atlantic and off the east coast of Flordia for the duration of it's life. Right now Maria has wind at 40 mph and is moving quickly to the west. It may look a bit scary now, but it is running into a lot of wind sheer and Maria could even fall apart by day three. Stay tuned on this one as well.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Back to "Average"

It looks like an average weather pattern this week. Scattered showers and storms will interupt periods of sunshine. Nate is in the Gulf and needs to be watched closely. - Jim

More sun and less rain expected this weekend

That headline is certainly good news for those who have plans on Saturday and Sunday. Through Thursday afternoon and Friday, keep that umbrella on hand, as a southwest flow continues to drive moisture onshore, creating widespread storm activity and more clouds than sun.

Update on the tropics: Katia will never be a threat to land but remains a Cat. 1 hurricane. The storm will turn northeast and move into the North Atlantic in the next couple days. Katia's only effect on land will be high surf along the eastern seaboard. Tropical Storm Nate formed yesterday afternoon and will slowly strengthen in the Bay of Campeche and likely make landfall along the Gulf coast of Mexico Tuesday, but south Texas remains in the 5 days forecast cone. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Maria was also named yesterday and will continue to move westward and eventually turn northwestward. Maria is expected to maintain tropical storm strength and impact the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico on Saturday then move to the east and northeast of the Bahamas Monday. Beyond that 5 day threshold, Maria will bear close watching as it nears the U.S. coastline.

-KW

Rain it here for another day or two. Nate has formed in the gulf too.. Not heading here...

We the southwesterly wind has been with us for the last serval days and it will continue for the nest few more. This means we will see rain in the morning as well as in the afternoon through Friday as least. Some of the rain will be heavy at times. Look for another 1 to 3 inches by the weekend. Saturday a lot more sun is expected s all the tropical moisture moves to the north. Temperatures will rebound back into the low to mid 90s by then.

 

Tropical storm Maria is in the Atlantic with wind at 50 mph and moving to the west at 23 mph. It will start a turn to the north by day five once it moves over the Bahamas. So far it looks as if Maria is going to stau away from the USA.

 

Tropical storm Nate as just formed in the South Gulf. Wind at 45 mph and moving to the ESE at 2 mph. This system looks like it will become a hurricane in the next day or so and is expected to move into Mexico by day five. Nate is not coming here..

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Another Wet Start...For Some

Most of the rain this morning was concentrated across DeSoto, Highlands, and Charlotte counties with brief heavy downpours. As of 11:30am, the radar is fairly quiet, however we are tracking a complex of showers and thunderstorms just offshore the SWFL coastline. These will continue to push toward our coastal locations first through the mid day hours and eventually affecting some of our inland communities this afternoon. As a result of the extra cloud cover due to that moist southwest flow, temperatures will hover in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. An unsettled weather pattern stays in place through the end of the work week, with a bit more sunshine in store for the first half of the weekend.

A Nearby Cold Front

Remnants of Lee, still an area of low pressure that is near Tennessee, has helped drive a frontal boundry into central Florida. SW Florida is on the soggy side of the front, so we will have more rain the next 2 days. It should be sunnier and warmer by the weekend. - Jim

Wet from Lee

The remnants of Tropical Storm/ Depression Lee will keep SW Florida rather cloudy and wet the next few days. - Jim

Umbrella at the Ready!

The best time to do outdoor activities will be this morning as only isolated storms are on radar, but more widespread activity is forecast to roll in this afternoon. A wetter pattern will settle over SW FL and continue through the beginning of the weekend, so grab that umbrella and keep it on hand as both morning and evening storms will remain in the forecast!

Checking on the tropics: a wave 680 southwest of the Cape Verde Islands (coastal Africa) will likely form into a tropical depression later today or Wednesday. Also, a wave of energy in the southern Gulf west of the Yucatan warrants watching; this wave has a chance of developing into a depression in the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, Major Hurricane Katia has sustained winds of 125 mph but will not threaten land. The main effect from Katia will be rip currents and high surf along the eastern seaboard in the coming days.

-KW

Tropical Storm Lee

Tropical Storm Lee will soak Louisiana but will not have any significant impact on SW Florida. If anything we will have a breeze by Monday. In the mean time, look for a fairly typical weekend! - Jim

Tropical Depression #13

Tropical Depression #13 remains nearly stationary just south of the Louisiana coastline this morning. As of 11am, sustained winds are at 35 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 1005 mb. Tropical Storm warnings are in effect for Pascagoula, MS west toward Sabine pass, TX, which includes the city of New Orleans. As TD 13 swirls over the warm waters of the Gulf, strengthening is possible into a Tropical Storm as we head into the weekend. This system is expected to produce between 10 and 15 inches of rainfall across southern Louisiana and south Alabama, with isolated amounts up to 20 inches of rainfall, which makes flooding a huge concern in this area.

Katia has now regained Hurricane status with winds sustained at 75 mph as it moves to the W/NW at 14 mph. It looks like Katia will continue to strengthen over the weekend reaching major hurricane status by early next week.

Watching 3 Waves in the Tropics

Nearly stationary Tropical Depression 13 continues to spin in the Gulf. A better model consensus leads us to believe that this depression will likely strengthen to a tropical storm later today but not strengthen beyond that intensity. As of now, the storm is forecast to slowly move toward the northeast and make landfall along the Louisiana coastline early Monday morning. The storm will continue slowly northeast, producing 10-15" of rainfall in southern LA, MS, and AL. We in SW FL will not be directly impacted by this storm but can expect increased cloud cover and scattered storms through the beginning of next week.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Katia is moving toward the WNW at 15 mph in the Atlantic. The storm maintains winds of 70 mph, just 4 mph shy of Category 1 hurricane strength. The storm is not forecast to strengthen in the next 24-36 hours; beyond that the storm will likely re-strengthen into a hurricane and possibly even a major hurricane. Through the next 5 days, Katia will not be a threat to land.

A third tropical wave south of Nova Scotia, moving northeast in the North Atlantic, has the potential to develop into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours but regardless of development, this wave of energy will not threaten land in its lifetime.

-KW

Our next named storm is Lee.. And it looksl like it will be in the Gulf soon!

We are still watching the disturbance in the Gulf and slowly moving to the northwest. Hurricane hunters are flying in and around the system gathering data. It is looking good for developing in the next few hours. It could become a depression and or a storm, Lee would be the name. The upper air looks rough right now but in the next 6 to 12 hours the sheer weakens which allows this potential system to strengthen. Good new for us is that it is moving to the northwest. However, with the slow movement this system could become a hurricane if it stay over the Gulf for the next few days.

 

Katia is now a strong Tropical Storm with wind at 70mph. But this storm will stay out in the Atlantic.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Cloud Cover Keeping Temperatures a Bit Cooler

It's another cloudy day across SWFL, as we are seeing some tropical moisture move overhead in association with a tropical wave in the Gulf of Mexico. This will keep our weather pattern unsettled for the next couple of days with more clouds than sun and scattered rain/storms. On the flip side, it will keep our daytime highs well below the norm as most of us won't even crack the 90° mark once again.

In the tropics, Katia is maintaining its category 1 strength with sustained winds at 75 mph, but over the next 48 hours intensification is likely, with Katia reaching category 3 status as early as the weekend. The area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico has the potential to evolve into our next Tropical Depression or even Tropical Storm over the next day or two. Most models do have this system moving in a northwest direction and meandering across the Texas to Louisiana coast through the weekend.

Sept. 1st Tropical Update

Hurricane Katia continues to churn in the Atlantic with sustained winds of 75 mph. The storm is expected to maintain hurricane strength and further strengthen in the coming days. Katia, however, will not be a threat to land in the next 5-7 days. Beyond that time, of course Katia bears watching.

Of other importance is an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf. An area of disorganized shower activity over the eastern Gulf is expected to get more organized in the next 48 hours and become a tropical depression or tropical storm. While a good consensus in the forecast models has yet to be reached, it appears this wave will bring much needed rainfall to the coastlines of the Deep South, including Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas, areas that are all suffering from moderate to exceptional drought. Based off even the most pessimistic intensity models, I believe this storm could strengthen into a tropical storm but not into a hurricane. Of course things can change and we will keep a close eye on this wave, as we in SW FL will see a bit of backwash from this storm with clouds and scattered showers over the weekend.

-KW

Still cloudy with rain in the forecast. Watching the Gulf as a tropical wave get better organized!

All this moisture overhead is due to a tropical wave overhead. As this system moves into the gulf we have more clouds and rain in the forecast. You can expect this pattern of clouds and rain to be with us through the weekend now. This tropical wave has the potential to become our next depression or storm by Friday. It is looking like it will stay in the western gulf effecting Louisiana and Texas over the weekend. The only problem is the computer models are all over the place as this is still the beginning of a potential storm. So some changes are likely down the road. 

 

Katia is near hurricane strength and is staying out in the Atlantic.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Soggy

A humid atmosphere will linger over SW Florida today and tomorrow. Expect rain at any time. - Jim

Another Cloudy & Dreary Day

SWFL got a brief break from the early morning showers today, but through the mid-day hours, we will continue to see some light rain spreading into the region. This will keep daytime temperatures well below the norm as they top out into the mid 80s. Tropical moisture will stay in place over the next couple of days with more clouds than sun and scattered rain/storms.

Tropical Storm Katia still looks fairly organized and could be upgraded to a hurricane by later today. As of 11am, winds were sustained at 65 mph on a W/NW movement at 21 mph. Some of the long range models do have Katia recurving before making it to the US mainland and possibly affecting the island of Bermuda. Still something to watch over the next few days, but no worries as we head into the Labor Day holiday weekend!

Rain, Rain Go Away

Another dreary day is underway with more clouds than sun alongside scattered showers and storms. Because of the mostly cloudy skies and wet weather, high temperatures will likely be in the 80s yet again, and even through the end of the work week, temperatures will struggle to hit 90 degrees!

Tropical Storm Katia continues to strengthen in the Atlantic. The storm has sustained winds of 65 mph, and we are expecting the storm to strengthen to hurricane strength later today. Katia, however, will not be a threat to land at least through the next 5 days.

Meanwhile, we're watching an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Caribbean between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. This tropical wave is moving WNW and has the potential to become a tropical system in the next 48 hours. If it were to become a tropical depression or storm, current models project it to directly impact Louisiana and Texas, where current drought conditions range from moderate to exceptional and a bit of rainfall will likely be welcome.

-KW

Another day of clouds and rain ahead! High temperture was 80 today! BRRRR!!

This extra cloudy and wet pattern is in place for the next few days. With tropical moisture to our southwest and the wind out of the southwest you can expect the moisture to hang around. On average, today we saw .25" up to an 1" across the region. Most of the rain was at our beach locations. Sanibel getting 1" to 1.66" at Ding Darling.

 

We are also watching this tropical moisture in the Gulf that could develop into a depression or storm by the end of the work week. Good news is that it will be move slowly to the west the next few days.

 

TS Katia has formed in the Atlanitc. Wind is at 60 mph and is moving to the WNW at 20 mph. Early hints say this will not bother the USA.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Tropical Storm Katia Update

Tropical Storm Katia formed in the eastern Atlantic earlier this morning. As of the 11am advisory, winds are sustained at 45 mph as it moves on a W/NW track at 18 mph. Conditions are conducive for strengthening over the next couple of days, possibly into a major hurricane. This system is still thousands of miles away from the Florida peninsula, so we do have plenty of time to track Katia.

Plenty of tropical moisture continues to hang around SWFL. as a result mostly cloudy conditions will stick around through afternoon and evening with scattered rain. As a result of the cloud cover and on and off showers, daytime highs will stay well below the average into the mid 80s.

Tropical Storm Katia Forms in the Atlantic

Tropical Storm Katia was officially named at 5AM this morning. With sustained winds of 40 mph, the storm continues to move toward the west at 17 mph and is currently approx. 500 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Katia will not be a threat to land in the next 5 days; beyond that this storm bears watching, especially as Katia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane in the next 48 hours.

Quite a stormy start for SW Florida. On and off storms will continue through the afternoon. Because of the stormy weather and mostly cloudy skies, highs will top out on the cool side and in the mid 80s.

-KW

Rain rain go away! Not this week!

A southwesterly wind will be with us though the week. This means we will see rain anytime during the night and daytime. As the moisture moves in from the gulf you can expect a mostly cloudy sky with temps stuck in the 80s for the next few days. It looks like we should see a few more rays of sun by the middle of the week.

 

In the tropic we are watching TD12. No threat to the US as it is roughly 3200 miles away in the middle of the Atlantic.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

A Rainy Week

Cloudy sky with rain this week will contrast with the fairly dry weather we had this past weekend. Abundant moisture will linger this week giving us a chance for rain at any time of day and night. - Jim

Heavy Downpours Moving in from the Gulf

Flow off the Gulf of Mexico continues to bring in plenty of moisture along with scattered showers & storms that are now lining up and down the SWFL coastline. Expect some heavy downpours along with frequent lightning throughout the mid day hours from Cape Coral to Naples with movement off to the northeast. Due to the extra cloud cover and rainfall, temperatures will vary from the upper 80s to near 90 degrees this afternoon.

Activity in the Tropics Anything But Quiet

With remnants of Irene far in Canada, our focus turns to two others tropical waves. Tropical Storm Jose formed yesterday morning near Bermuda, creating a stormy day for the little island. Jose has now pushed northward and remains a tropical storm with sustained winds of 40 mph, not impacting any land mass whatsoever. We are expecting Jose to weaken to a depression later today.

Meanwhile, a wave off the coast of Africa bears close watching. Tropical Depression 12 could very well become our next named storm, Katia, later today. The storm as of now is projected to eventually develop into a hurricane and move across the Atlantic. In the next 5 days this storm will not be a threat to any land mass, but thereafter, as it nears the Lesser Antilles, it will certainly be a topic of concern.

A stormy start to the day in SW Florida, especially in Lee and Charlotte counties. Those locations that receive ample rainfall will likely hit highs in the upper 80s. Otherwise, most of us will top out in the low-mid 90s. Keep that umbrella on hand as on and off showers and storms are forecast throughout the day.

-KW

8AM Tropical Update: Irene and Jose

Yes, we now have a Jose. The tropical storm formed at 8AM and is expected to dissipate as fast as it formed. The storm will impact Bermuda today with 1-3" of rainfall and gusty winds. The U.S. will not be impacted by this storm. MEANWHILE, Irene made landfall as a Cat. 1 hurricane near Little Egg Inlet in New Jersey at 5:35 Sunday morning. The storm will dump 5-10" of rainfall across the Northeast with isolated areas receiving as much as 15". As of 8AM Irene maintains 75 mph sustained winds and continues to push toward the NNE at 25 mph, impacting millions. The storm is forecast to weaken to tropical storm strength later today, but keep in mind, those tropical storm force winds (<39 mph) extend 320 miles from the storm's center!

SW FL: Mind the breezy conditions heading out on the water today. We're expecting scattered storms, primarily in the afternoon with a high around 93. Same set up in store for your Monday.

-KW

Hurricane Irene Makes Landfall Near Cape Lookout, NC

The center of Hurricane Irene made landfall around 7:30am this morning near Cape Lookout, NC. As of the 8am advisory, Irene was still packing winds of 85 mph, with higher gusts, as its bands of heavy rain spiraled across the North Carolina coast. Irene is expected to maintain Category 1 strength as it moves toward the Delmarva Peninsula, up towards NYC & Long Island, and up into the New England States by late Sunday. The Storm Surge across North Carolina is expected to be between 5' to 9'; 4' to 8' from Virginia to New England, with Hurricane force winds extending outward up to 90 miles from the center of circulation. Rainfall amounts are expected to reach between 6" and 10", with some isolated amounts of 15" when all is said and done.

As Irene moves up the Eastern seaboard, we will see some drier air sweep down the Florida peninsula on the backside of Irene, leading to a drier than average weather pattern for Saturday. A stray shower is possible throughout the afternoon hours, with highs in the low to mid 90s. A west wind off the Gulf of Mexico will continue to drive in the humidity, which will keep our heat index values near 105° and overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Irene a little weaker but still a large cat 2 hurricane. Will make landfall in NC tomorrow morning.

THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND ANY HIGHER WINDS AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN FACT...DATA FROM NEAR THE CONCLUSION OF THE
FLIGHT SUPPORT A SLIGHT LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT DID
REPORT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF
50-55 KT 135 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER...SHOWING THE LARGE SIZE OF
THE WIND FIELD. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT
PASS SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD ABOUT
225-250 N MI OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE HAS
ERODED. ALTHOUGH IRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATER DURING THE
NEXT 12-18 HOURS...THE LACK OF AN INNER CORE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
ANY RESTRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...IRENE COULD WEAKEN JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IMPACTS FROM THIS LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL NOT BE VERY DIFFERENT IF IT IS A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM OR LOW-END HURRICANE. IRENE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINS ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND. 

IRENE IS STILL MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360/12 KT. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO
TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON THAT HEADING UP
THE EAST COAST...AND BE MOVING AT ABOUT 15-17 KT AS IT APPROACHES
LONG ISLAND...MUCH SLOWER THAN NORMAL FOR STORMS IN THIS
AREA...WHICH WILL PRODUCE EXTENDED PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN MANY AREAS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF IRENE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
CYCLES. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.



--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

A Warm Weekend

Now that Irene has moved farther away from SW Florida we will have a fairly typical August weeekend. If anything, there might be fewer showers and thunderstorms through Monday. - Jim

IRENE Downgraded Slightly as of 5AM

Hurricane warnings extend up the eastern seaboard, as far north as New Jersey. Evacuations are underway in many coastal communities. The storm, as of 5 AM, has sustained winds of 110 mph, and has been downgraded to a Cat. 2, just 1 mph shy of being a Cat. 3. Re-strengthening later today cannot be ruled out. We are expecting Irene to make landfall as a Cat. 2/3 in the Outer Banks of NC, where we're expecting storm surge 6 to 11 feet. Irene will then move northeastward toward the DelMarVa peninsula, NJ shore, and NYC, producing dangerous storm surge, high surf, and rainfall ranging from 6-10".

-KW

Winds Kicking Up, Thanks to Irene

Hurricane Irene is still a major category 3 storm as it continues to batter the Bahamas at this hour. Later today, Irene should start to make more of a northerly turn as it begins to approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Most of the models, take Irene up the eastern seaboard possibly affecting the Jersey Shore, NYC, and the Boston area early next week as a Tropical Storm. Here in SWFL, we are feeling minimal effects from Irene - Skytracker Doppler HD as of noon, has a few scattered showers with moderate rainfall across Lake O moving southwest into Immokalee. Winds are sustained out of the North & NE between 10 and 16 mph with higher gusts close to 25 mph. The breezy weather will continue into Friday with isolated showers/storms as Irene pulls away from the Florida peninsula.

OBX Prepare for the Worst

Irene remains a Cat. 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph. Tracking toward the northwest at 13 mph, the storm has the potential to further strengthen in the next 24 hours to a Cat. 4. The storm will later turn toward the north and move toward the Outer Banks of NC, which are already under evacuation. Here in FL, there is a high risk for rip currents along the Atlantic shoreline in Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach counties. Heading out on the Gulf? Expect choppy conditions with seas between 2-4 feet. The wind will begin to pick up here in SW FL later this afternoon, gusting to 25 mph. Also watch for scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Breezy conditions will continue into your Friday.

-KW

Irene is a major hurricane heading toward the eastern seaboard. We will have a breezy day tomorrow, with a few storms.

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
THIS AFTERNOON.  A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD
CLOUD TOPS HAS EXPANDED NEAR THE EYEWALL AND NOW SOLIDLY SURROUNDS
THE EYE.  BEFORE DEPARTING IRENE...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 116 KT
IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 954 MB.  THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
105 KT.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE UW-CIMMS
OBJECTIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION TECHNIQUE CONTINUES TO
PREDICT A HIGH CHANCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. IN FACT...A RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED SOME EVIDENCE
OF A SECONDARY EYEWALL. THESE EYEWALL CYCLES CAN PRODUCE HARD TO
PREDICT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. FOR NOW...THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST CALL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY A
LEVELING OFF OF THE INTENSITY. IN 3-4 DAYS....INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL
WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE...OR EVEN GROW IN SIZE...AS IT NEARS NEW
ENGLAND.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/10 KT. IRENE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH THROUGH A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE.  BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO WHETHER IRENE TURNS BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THAT
TIME.  THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE
WEST...AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS.  THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT...HFIP...CONSENSUS TRACKS.




--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Irene

Hurricane Irene will be due east of SW Florida late tomorrow. Actually, we will have pretty good weather although windy at times. - Jim

Hurricane Irene Maintains Category 3 Strength, with Possible Intensification

A mix of sun and clouds will take us into the rest of the afternoon hours with scattered storms and some heavier downpours making it to our coastal locations by this evening. Thursday morning will start off fairly dry as Hurricane Irene makes its presence known as it treks across the Bahamas, possibly as a category 4 storm. SWFL will see minimal impacts as Irene stays well off the Florida coastline, however you will notice an increase in the winds as they kick up to 15-20 mph, with higher gusts closer to 30 mph along with a few scattered storms. As Irene pulls away by Friday, it will remain on the breezy side, but with drier air filtering in on the backside, that will limit our storm chance all the way through the weekend.

As of 11am: Hurricane Irene is packing winds of 115 mph, making this the first major hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season. It's movement is to the NW at 12 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 956 mb. It looks like the east coast of Florida (including Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties) will see more of an impact as Irene passes to the east.

Irene Now a Major Hurricane

As of 8AM Wednesday Hurricane Irene is a Category 3 storm with a sustained wind of 115 mph. This major hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph. A gradual turn to the northwest is forecast later today. The core of Irene will move through the Bahamas later today as well, dumping 6-12" of rainfall and producing storm surge ranging from 7-11 ft. While Florida is not forecast to take a direct hit, we in southwest Florida should expect the breeze to pick up later this afternoon and especially Thursday, but tropical storm force winds on the Gulf Coast are not expected.

-KW

Irene has weakened to a cat 1. We are no longer in the cone, SWFL will have minimal effects.

THE EYE OF IRENE WAS MORE APPARENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAS RECENTLY BECOME OBSCURED.  THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT AND PEAK SFMR WINDS OF AROUND 75 KT. IT
HAS BEEN NEARLY 24 HOURS SINCE THE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED WINDS THAT
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 85 KT.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 80 KT.  THE PRESSURE DROPPED ABOUT A MILLIBAR
ON EACH SUCCESSIVE FIX AND WAS DOWN TO 976 MB ON THE LASS PASS
AROUND 1830 UTC.  ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE IRENE THIS EVENING.

THE HURRICANE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT IDEAL FOR
RAPID DEVELOPMENT...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST MODERATE WESTERLY
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST
24 HOURS DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. AFTER THAT...IT IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BRINGS IRENE TO MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS IN 36 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND
OF THE LOWER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL/HWRF
MODELS.

THE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295/8 KT...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME AND THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AFTER THAT...
IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS...ECMWF...HWRF...AND GFDL...SHOW A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE
TO A WEAK TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
BEHIND THE HURRICANE. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
EASTWARD AT 72 AND 96 HOURS BUT THE NEW 5-DAY POINT IS STILL ALONG
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT LARGE FORECAST
ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LONGER LEAD TIMES.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Breezy on Thursday

Hurricane Irene should be as close to SW Florida as it will get on Thursday. I still believe SW Florida will only have gusty weather on Thursday and breezy weather on Friday, along with (of course) a few showers and thunderstorms. - Jim

Hurricane Irene Update: 11am

Good news! The entire Florida peninsula is out of the forecast cone concerning Hurricane Irene. As of the 11am advisory, Irene is still classified as Category 2 storm with winds sustained at 100 mph, with higher gusts. It's movement is still to the W/NW at 12mph, a shift to the NW is expected by Wednesday as Irene bears down on the Bahamas as a major hurricane, with a landfall by Saturday somewhere along the Carolina coastline. With Irene well to the east of SWFL, impacts should be minimal. Late Wednesday & Thursday we will see our winds pick up a bit with the possibility of a few scattered storms, with slightly drier conditions for Friday as Irene starts to pull away.

5 AM Update on Hurricane Irene

Irene is a strong Cat. 2 hurricane with a sustained wind of 100 mph, wreaking havoc on the northern coastline of Hispaniola. The storm has neither weakened nor strengthened in the last several hours, because of its interaction with the island, but the storm is forecast to strengthen in the next 24 hours to Cat. 3 strength with a sustained wind of 111 mph or greater. Much of Florida is no longer in the forecast cone; however, we will see impacts from this storm, especially on Thursday...gusty winds and stormy conditions are forecast. The wind will begin to pick up Wed PM.

-KW

Irene isn't coming here

Irene should stay over the Atlantic. It will be as close to SW Florida as it is likely to get on Thursday night. We will have a windy Thursday and a breezy Friday/ Saturday. - Jim

Watching Irene.. The track is still off the east coast of Fla. however, we are still in the cone.

DATA FROM THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AROUND 1700
UTC INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STEADY AND THE WINDS
HAVE NOT CHANGED DURING THE DAY. SINCE THEN...HIGH RESOLUTION
SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT IRENE
COULD BE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING. HOWEVER...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.0
AND 4.5 WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 70 KNOTS.
ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE AROUND 0000 UTC TONIGHT.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DISRUPTION OF THE OUTER CIRCULATION BY
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...WHICH PROBABLY WILL SLOW DOWN THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...ALL OF THE
INGREDIENTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR IRENE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR IRENE TO BECOME A STRONG
CATEGORY 2 OR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
WIND SCALE AS IRENE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS INSIST
ON MAKING IRENE A LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE WITH MINIMUM PRESSURES
AROUND 945 MB AND 952 MB...RESPECTIVELY. 

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11
KNOTS. CURRENTLY...THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS BEING CONTROLLED
BY A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FUTURE
TRACK WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL
INDUCE A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...HAVE NOW FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE
ECMWF MODEL. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TURNING
IRENE NORTHWARD ALONG 78 OR 79 DEGREES LONGITUDE. ALTHOUGH IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE GUIDANCE TREND CONTINUES TO
LESSENS THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA BUT INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE
CAROLINAS.

DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4
TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST
TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.


--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Irene will miss

Irene should pass far enough to the east of SW Florida so that we will not experience severe weather. Breezy conditions will be possible Thursday and Friday. Of course, we will be watching to make sure there isn't a major revision to the forecast track of Irene. - Jim

Irene Becomes the Season's 1st Hurricane

As of 7am this morning, Hurricane Irene is bringing heavy rainfall and hurricane force winds to the island of Puerto Rico. Maximum sustained winds are at 75 mph and it continues to move to the W/NW at 14 mph. The latest forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center continues to keep much of the Florida peninsula (inlcuding Southwest Florida) in it, but there has been a gradual shift to the east over the last model runs, possibly impacting the east coast of Florida, or staying just off shore as a minimal hurricane. Since the forcast track and intensity of Irene still remains uncertain, now is a good time to review your hurricane plan and check your hurricane supplies.

Irene

While SW Florida is in the 5 day forecast cone for Tropical Storm Irene, it is too early to know the specific impacts, if any. This is a good time to review your hurricane supply checklist in case Irene is stronger and closer late this week. - Jim

Hot Weekend

Fairly typical weather is expected this weekend, hot and humid with afternoon/evening showers and storms. In the tropics: the disturbance east of the Caribbean is the one to watch. - Jim

Outdoor plans? Grab your coffee!

The best time for outdoor chores and activities will be in the morning hours, as dry conditions persist. The chance for scattered storms ramps up late this morning and continues through the afternoon and evening hours. Your Saturday and Sunday will be very similar with high temps around 93. TGIF! Have a great weekend.

-KW

Tropical Depression 8

TD 8 has formed. It will not affect SW Florida. There are two other Tropical Waves worth watching in the Atlantic. - Jim

Mainly PM Rain

We should have fairly dry mornings followed by showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon through the weekend. I am still watching the far eastern wave in the Atlantic as "the one to watch" for now. FYI, the Gulf of Mexico has some of the warmest water on the planet at this time. - Jim

A Mainly Dry Start to the Day...

Mainly dry conditions greet those heading off to school, work or play. Watch for scattered showers and storms later this morning and afternoon. We're expecting high temperatures around 93 degrees. Friday will be similar. For your weekend, afternoon storms are in the forecast with highs around 93.

A potential tropical depression south of Jamaica will continue its movement west toward central America. When and if this storm forms, it will in no way threaten the U.S. Coastline.

-KW

The Not So Sunny Sunshine State

Scattered storms are yet again saying 'good morning' to southwest Florida, particularly along our coastal communities in Charlotte, Lee and Collier counties. Like yesterday, the chance for storms will remain in the forecast through the morning and afternoon hours. Afternoon highs will be suppressed in locations that receive rainfall this morning thanks to the rain-cooled air. Locations with a bit more sunshine will top out in the lower 90s. Scattered storms are forecast through the end of the work week and even into the weekend.

-KW

Unstable

A nearby trough of low pressure will retreat to the north the next few days. That should allow for more sun and fewer rain areas during the first half of each day. BTW, the weekend looks dry in the AM, wet in the PM. - Jim

Not an Ideal Beach Day

Showers and storms this morning west of I-75 in Charlotte, Lee and Collier counties produced a fair amount of rainfall is some gauges and is making way for cooler afternoon highs. Locations that receive and received rain today can expect highs in the 80s; those who see a bit more sun can expect temps in the lower 90s. Fort Myers Beach Golf Club by the way received more than 2". Keep that umbrella on hand, as we can't rule out a few showers and storms later this afternoon. Tomorrow, the chance for scattered storms in the morning and afternoon remains.

-KW

AM / PM Storms

A westerly flow pattern will continue into Tuesday. Expect a few isolated coastal showers/storms tonight and into early tomorrow morning with a flare up in the activity tomorrow afternoon. It will be hot with temperatures in the lower 90s with heat incdices near 100°. By late in the week high pressure will continue to build in across the peninsula, with a return to a typical summertime pattern...dry mornings with afternoon and evening storms a bit closer to the coast.
-KM

TD 6

The 6th Tropical Depression has formed. It will NOT affect SW Florida! - Jim

More Sunshine

While we will still have a few showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, periods of sunshine will return. In the tropics: 2 Tropical Waves are in the far Eastern Atlantic, pictured on the right side of this satellite photo. - Jim

Another Wet Day on the Way

Thursday is forecast to be, yet again, on the damp and dreary side with on and off scattered storms throughout the day. Mostly cloudy skies and rain-cooled air mean cooler than average afternoon highs. For locations that receive ample sunshine in the morning, temperatures could reach the 90 degree mark; otherwise, temperatures will likely top out in the 80s.

Friday, the wet pattern will break. We're only expecting isolated coastal showers tomorrow morning; storm activity will mainly be in the afternoon, a more typical pattern for the summer months.

-KW

Heavy Rain

3" - 4" fell in Cape Coral / Ft. Myers on Wednesday, 1" - 3" elsewhere. Another 1" - 2" will be possible in isolated areas on Thursday before a sunnier, hotter pattern returns this weekend. There are 3 disturbances in the tropics. The two in the far Eastern Atlantic will bear watching. - Jim

Soggy

This extra soggy weather pattern will continue through tomorrow with a return to a more typical pattern by the weekend. The tropics are quiet. - Jim

Perseid Meteor Shower to Peak August 12-13

Earth is entering a stream of debris from the comet Swift-Tuttle, the source of the annual Perseid meteor shower. Specks of comet dust are hitting the top of Earth's atmosphere at 140,000 mph, creating bright bursts of light! According to the International Meteor Organization, worldwide observers now are counting more than a dozen Perseids per hour with more to come on August 12-13 (Friday and Saturday), when Earth passes near the heart of the debris stream. Friday and Saturday nights should be clearer than nights past, so head out and enjoy the show!

-KW

The Cloudy Sunshine State

Another day of more clouds than sun and scattered storms is underway. We'll start off with only isolated rumbles but see more widespread activity roll in late this morning and afternoon. Temps will top out around 90 degrees, but locations that receive ample rainfall will hit highs in the 80s. Expect a similar setup for Thursday with widespread scattered storms in both the morning and afternoon hours. Friday, the pattern will break and we're expecting mainly afternoon storms with high temps a degree warmer than average. The mercury will continue to rise through the weekend under just partly cloudy skies and afternoon scattered storms.

-KW

Rain, Rain Go Away

For some the rain is welcome. For others, this dreary weather is creating a slow start to the work week. Moisture over southwest Florida will continue to filter from a westerly steering wind. That means more clouds than sun and scattered showers and storms may be expected Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. This wetter pattern should break Friday and through the weekend, when we can expect partly cloudy skies and afternoon scattered showers and storms.

-KW

Soggy Through Thursday

A nearby trough of low pressure along with a tropical air mass will keep the chance of an anytime anywhere shower or thunderstorm. - Jim

A Stormy Start to School

Frequent lightning and heavy downpours are greeting students getting ready to head off to school this morning in Lee County. Storms, extending from Sanibel to North Ft. Myers, are moving from the west towards the east. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Storms, moving from the southwest heading northeast, are also rolling into Naples this morning. Scattered storms will continue through the day with more clouds than sun.

-KW

Emily is Back...

Satellite imagery and Hurricane Hunters data confirm that Emily has re-strengthened back into a Tropical Depression albeit a weak and disorganized one. Only gradual strengthening is expected. When and if Emily strengthens to tropical storm strength (<39 mph), the storm will be well away from the Bahamas and the United States coastline, not a threat to land whatsoever. The main impact will be heavy rainfall over the northwestern Bahamas over the next 24 hours. Because of Emily, we in SW FL will have more clouds than sun and scattered showers and storms throughout Sunday.

-KW and ES

Katie Walls' Skytracker Forecast

Remnants of Emily will increase cloud cover and storm chances this afternoon and all day Sunday. The wave has a 70% chance of re-strengthening into a tropical storm in the next 48 hours. Hurricane Hunters will fly into the storm this afternoon to further investigate. When and if the storm does re-strengthen, it will NOT be a threat to the U.S. coastline and will not strengthen beyond a tropical storm.

-KW

A Hot Weekend

The remnants of Emily show no sign of reorganizing at this time (1130pm Friday). I don't expect any effect on our weather this weekend. After 96 degrees today in Ft. Myers, it will be hot this weekend with highs in the mid 90's. - Jim

Emily's Last Stand

Don't push Emily to the back of your mind just yet. The storm dissipated at 5pm Thursday, but still bears close watching. There is a decent chance, 60% actually, that the storm will re-strengthen to tropical storm strength in the next 48 hours. If the storm gets re-organized, there will be little to no threat for southwest Florida, and the storm will likely stay in the Atlantic.
That said this weekend will be rather dull thanks to this tropical wave's proximity. Watch for more clouds than sun and scattered storms Saturday and Sunday.

-KW

Emily is no more.. however rain chances will go up Saturday and Sunday now!

Emily became a open wave as of 5 pm. This means the NHC could not find any closed circulation so thye are unable to call this a depression or even a storm. Because this is an open wave now, we can expect the movement of the moisture to be more westerly. So with that in mind, that moisture will move over SWFL Saturday and Sunday.  You can expect to see rain in the morning and in the afternoon both those days. The rest of the tropics look quiet for now.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Back to PM storms

We should return to an afternoon/evening timing patteren tomorrow. Meanwhile, Emily is still on track to be drawn northward by the weekend. It still looks like Emily will have very little effect on SW Florida weather. - Jim

11am: Tropical Storm Emily Update

As of 11am, Tropical Storm Emily is on the move! Winds are sustained at 50 mph and is now moving on a W/NW track at 5 mph positioned just to the south of Haiti. As Emily crosses over some rugged terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, weakening is possible. Once it moves back over warmer waters, it is expected to reintensify as it moves closer to the Bahamas by late Friday and into early Saturday morning just off the east coast of Florida. The eastern portions of Glades and Hendry counties are right on the western fringe of the cone of uncertainty, and with the "exact" path of Emily still a bit uncertain, this system still needs to be closely monitored. Next advisory from the National Hurricane Center will be out at 2pm.
-KM

Thursday's 8 AM Update on Emily

As of 8AM Tropical Storm Emily is stationary...not at all good news for Haiti and the Dominican Republic, where we are expecting a torrential amount of rainfall in the next 24 hours. Deadly flash flooding and mudslides will be a concern. As the storm moves across mountainous Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, we are expecting the storm to weaken, but as it moves across warm Caribbean water, the storm may re-strengthen. The storm has yet to make a proper northwest turn and needs to do so soon. The farther west the storm tracks, the more of a threat it becomes to the Florida coastline.

-KW

5 AM Update on Tropical Storm Emily

Tropical Storm Emily will dump 6-12" of rainfall across Haiti and the Dominican Republic today as the storm makes landfall. Isolated areas could receive 20"+, creating deadly flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous areas. Those mountains will also help weaken the storm, but we are expecting re-strengthening over the warm Caribbean waters tomorrow and Saturday. If the storm does not begin more of a northward turn soon, the threat to Florida will increase, and a watch may need to be issued for south Florida. Next update 8AM

-KW

2 AM Update on Emily

Emily's strength has changed little in the last 24 hours. The storm has sustained winds of 50 mph and is moving west at 5 mph. The storm's lack of motion will create even heavier downpours over Haiti and the Dominican Republic: 6-12" are likely with isolated areas receiving 20"+. This will create flash flooding and mudslides across the island. Some weakening is possible in the next 24-36 hours as it interacts with Hispaniola's mountainous terrain but some re-strengthening is possible when the storm moves over the Bahamas. *If a northward motion does not begin soon, the threat to Florida will increase.* Southwest Florida remains on the outskirts of the 3 day forecast cone.

-KW

TC Emily is still heading west. A turn to the north is needed soon so it won impact the Florida!

The latest from the NHC. Emily needs to start turning to the north soon.. If not the cone will be adjusted to the west.

 

 

SOME DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON...
AND DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY IN EMILY
INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KNOTS...WITH A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003 MB.  WIND SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE...BUT GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE
THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. BY THEN...EMILY SHOULD BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD BEGIN. HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET...WITH EMILY STILL MOVING
WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. SO FAR MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD
BIAS.  EVEN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS STILL REFORMS THE CYCLONE
NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS...BRINGING EMILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AND
THEN EASTERN CUBA.  AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.



--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Emily Exposed

Emily is being affected by dry air and wind shear, clearly showing an exposed center on the visible satellite. This is not how a system strengthens! The cone is still East of SW Florida. - Jim

11am Update: Emily Shifts a Bit to the West

As of 11am this morning, Tropical Storm Emily is looking a bit disorganized as it tracks to the West at 14mph. Sustained winds are at 50 mph as it swirls just to the south of the island of Hispaniola. The latest track has Emily crossing over Haiti tonight and clipping the eastern portion of Cuba early Friday morning. As it moves over some rugged terrain, it will weaken slightly, but as it moves back out over the warmer waters it will begin to reintensify as it approaches the Bahamas on Friday. Since the latest forecast track has shifted more to the west, parts of SWFL still remain in the cone of uncertainty. So, with that being said, we still have to closely monitor the track of Emily over the next few days. Our weekend forecast all depends on the track...if Emily shifts a bit more to the east, we will actually see some slightly drier weather.
-KM

8 AM Update on Emily

Little has changed in Tropical Storm Emily since 5 PM Tuesday. As of 8 AM Wednesday, the storm has sustained winds of 50 mph and is heading westward. We are expecting the storm to move northwestward later this afternoon and evening, directly impacting Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Because of Hispaniola's mountainous terrain, Tropical Storm Emily is forecast to weaken but re-intensify as it moves over the Caribbean's warm water. The storm track continues to move east and away from the Florida coastline. Collier and Lee counties are no longer in the 5-day forecast cone, but Highlands, Glades and Hendry remain on the outskirts. The storm of course bears watching as forecasts can and do change, but as of now, the storm is not expected to directly impact Florida.

-KW

Emily is still a TS. But the forecast track has moved more to the east! Drier this weekend!

Emily will be steered by a large trough developing off the east coast. This should keep it our in the Atlantic off the east coast of Florida. That means drier weather for us Sunday through Monday. Stay tuned!

 

THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH EMILY...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REMAIN 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME INCREASE
IN THE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT DATA FROM THE AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NOT YET
WELL DEFINED AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
YESTERDAY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 45 KNOTS AND
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE
EMILY MOVES OVER HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IF EMILY
SURVIVES THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST
TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION ONCE THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST OR CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE GFS...WHICH
DISSIPATED EMILY IN THE TWO PREVIOUS RUNS HAS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
STORM MOVING EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS IN THE 12 UTC RUN.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.

SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND HAS BEEN REFORMING
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS THAT EMILY HAS RESUMED A WESTWARD TRACK AND
IS NOW MOVING ABOUT 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTING
EASTWARD. THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN SPEED. MOST OF THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS EMILY MOVING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST.



--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist