Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Brian: Gusty storms moving through Lee County.. heaviest headed toward Fort Myers, Cape Coral...
These storms will have torrential downpours and gusty wind; so far, there's not a tremendous amount of lightning with them. Expect the heaviest activity to push toward Charlotte County over the next hour. The rain is much lighter now across most of coastal Collier County but there could be some new storms developing later this afternoon.
Brian
Brian: Showers and storms moving out of Collier into Lee County...
Showers and storms with locally heavy downpours are now moving out of Collier County and headed into Lee County. Expect heavy downpours through South Fort Myers points south through the next hour or so pushing into north Lee County.
Brian
Brian: Isolated showers and storms offshore, now developing inland..
Isolated showers and storms are developing across inland southwest Florida right now with rain areas moving through Moore Haven and Lake Placid. Offshore, showers and storms continue to linger and in the SSE steering flow, some of these that are now south of Marco Island will have a chance to graze the area over the next hour or two.
Brian
Brian: Alex is strengthening, pressure now down to 959 mb...
Good morning! You might be caught in a bit of a head scratcher this morning: the pressure is falling in Alex and the satellite presentation of Alex is even more impressive. However, the wind remains unchanged on the latest advisory: 80 mph as of 8 AM. What gives? In less than 12 hours, the pressure has fallen 14 mb -- we call this "bombing out" (a pressure fall of 12 mb/12 hours or 24 mb/24 hours). Often times, though, it takes time for the wind to respond in kind; that said, with a large pressure gradient (or difference in pressure) across the Gulf of Mexico from the center of the storm to the outermost edges of the storm, the wind inevitably is going to have to increase near the center of Alex. With light wind shear above and a supply of warm, deep water below, Alex is in a perfect location for continued intensification. Do not be surprised at all if this is a Category 2 hurricane at landfall late tonight or early tomorrow morning.
The forward motion of the storm is quite slow and is expected to remain slow over the next few days. This will be quite a rain maker across south Texas and north Mexico with 8-12"+ of rain possible. There will also be a prolonged period of onshore wind in south Texas so, despite the center making landfall south of the border, there will be flooding in storm surge along the Texas coast.
The remains of Alex should eventually pull toward the central part of the country with the next trough of low pressure. We no longer expect any of the moisture from Alex to directly affect southwest Florida.
Anything else brewing in the Atlantic? Not over the next couple of days. There's a wave coming off the west coast of Africa and another in the central Atlantic. A couple of our forecast models do take a system toward the northern Caribbean/Bahamas in about 7 days, but that's pretty far off. There is also the possibility of some development as an unusually strong front pushes toward the southeast over the next few days; a few of our models highlight the southeast coast as a place worth watching for development (I mentioned this in a blog post a few days ago). We'll keep an eye on it.
Brian
Brian: Alex a large storm with tropical storm force wind out to 125-175 miles from center...
The distance hurricane force wind extends from the center is much shorter though -- on average just 15 - 20 miles. Latest reports from the hurricane hunter mission flying through Alex continue to indicate maximum sustained wind in the ballpark of 80 mph.
Brian
Brian: Showers & storms just offshore in the Gulf this morning... wet this afternoon...
Good morning! Showers and storms are hugging the coast this morning and we have the chance for an isolated shower/storm or two this morning -- especially along the Lee Island Coast. Since the steering flow is south-southeast, though, most of this activity will stay offshore out in the Gulf this morning. This afternoon, as the Gulf breeze kicks in, expect some fairly widespread showers and storms, especially along the coast. Before the storms arrive, we'll be in the low to mid 90's but, with dewpoints well into the 70's, it'll feel like over 100 degrees this afternoon.
Here are today's forecast numbers:
Naples Clouds & Sun Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Bonita Springs Clouds & Sun Scattered PM Storms; High 94
Fort Myers Clouds & Sun Scattered PM Storms; High 93
Cape Coral Clouds & Sun Scattered PM Storms; High 93
Port Charlotte Clouds & Sun Scattered PM Storms; High 93
Hendry Co. Clouds & Sun Scattered PM Storms; High 94
Glades Co. Clouds & Sun Scattered PM Storms; High 93
DeSoto Co. Clouds & Sun Scattered PM Storms; High 93
Have a great Wednesday!
Brian
Brian: Alex a strengthening hurricane... likely to make landfall as a Category 2 storm...
More coming.. but, long story short, as we talked about a couple of days ago -- Alex's path is now over some of the warmest, deepest water in the western Gulf of Mexico (in fact, right over the "bullseye" in brighter color you see in the top image east of Mexico). This should allow Alex to continue to intensify over the next few hours prior to landfall. See you on WINK!
Brian
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Brian: Scattered storms this afternoon, highs in the low to mid 90's...
We're under a veil of high, thin clouds this morning on the eastern edge of Tropical Storm Alex. These high clouds will be with us off and over the next few days but should diminish each day as Alex pulls farther and farther west before eventual landfall in northern Mexico or south Texas. Showers and storms will develop this afternoon and there's a ton of moisture in the atmosphere (dewpoints in the mid to upper 70's.. very sticky!). This should lead to some locally heavy downpours; yesterday, we saw nearly 2" of rain in some of the storms and we have a similar set up this afternoon.
A couple of new models have come in and as far as the weekend goes, it's a very tricky forecast. It still appears like some deep moisture will get trapped over the Florida peninsula as high pressure builds to our north over the east coast. Yesterday, most of our models were allowing this moisture to clear out into the Gulf by the second half of the holiday weekend as a more northeasterly flow took hold in the upper levels. Today, the model trend is toward more of that moisture sticking around for more of the weekend. For now, we'll hold on to our forecast of a chance of rain both earlier and later in the day with more clouds than sun Friday through at least Sunday the 4th. The weekend will not be a wash out, but it should be a little cooler with better chances of rain.
I'll have the latest on your forecast on 6TV in about 8 minutes.
Brian
Brian: Trending toward a wetter holiday weekend in southwest Florida...
Good morning! We're just a few days away from the start of the July 4th weekend and many questions remain as to just how wet it will be. What we do know is that a cold front will stall and eventually fall apart across the southeast (perhaps as far south as north Florida -- very unusual for this time of year!) late this week. That front will draw some of the moisture from Alex toward it, but right now it looks like the front will stall too far north and Alex will move too far to the west for there to be significant interaction between the two.
That said, as high pressure builds in aloft to the north of the decaying front, that enhanced moisture will likely get stuck over the southeast. This should lead to more clouds than sunshine from Friday through Monday with chances of rain both earlier and later in the day. There have been quite a few changes in the models over the past few days, though, as they struggle with the details of the evolution of Alex. You'll want to stay tuned over the next few days as we continue to fine tune the 4th forecast!
Brian
Brian: Scattered storms this afternoon, highs in the low 90's...
A few isolated showers this morning are located across inland southwest Florida. The bulk of the activity will develop later today along the afternoon Gulf breeze, though. Before that, expect highs today in the low to mid 90's. Here is today's forecast:
Naples Clouds & Sun Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Bonita Springs Clouds & Sun Scattered PM Storms; High 94
Fort Myers Clouds & Sun Scattered PM Storms; High 93
Cape Coral Clouds & Sun Scattered PM Storms; High 93
Port Charlotte Clouds & Sun Scattered PM Storms; High 93
Hendry Co. Clouds & Sun Scattered Storms; High 94
Glades Co. Clouds & Sun Scattered Storms; High 93
DeSoto Co. Clouds & Sun Scattered Storms; High 93
Have a great Tuesday!
Brian
Brian: Alex now a 70 mph tropical storm, nearing hurricane strength...
Good morning! The Hurricane Hunters have been flying through Alex overnight and have found maximum sustained wind now up to 70 mph; Tropical Storm Alex is nearing hurricane strength this morning. On the latest advisory, the pressure is a fairly low 984 mb but Alex is a pretty large storm which is likely offsetting the low central pressure (in other words, likely why the wind is not stronger.. yet). Also, what happens in a tropical cyclone is the pressure falls first and then the wind responds in kind by falling. As early as late this morning though, Alex likely will be our season's first hurricane.
Our forecast models continue to hone in on a landfall near northern Mexico/south Texas Wednesday night or Thursday. Prior to landfall, a long period of onshore wind is expected in south Texas likely leading to significant flooding (not to mention the long duration of very heavy rain expected as Alex makes landfall). One of the questions we've been commonly getting is what effect Alex will have on the Gulf oil spill. Fortunately, we don't think a significant one. Alex will likely send 2-4 foot swells (perhaps higher depending on just how strong alex gets) toward the oil slick and this may send more oil toward the Gulf coast over the coming days. But this will be far less destructive than a direct track of Alex across the slick, which will not happen.
Right now, it looks like much of the moisture from Alex will miss southwest Florida -- even though a front is coming into the southeast later this week. In the end, Alex likely will just be too far west to allow for significant moisture to push into the area. That said, for other reasons, we expect unsettled weather over the holiday weekend. I'll have more on that later.
Brian
Monday, June 28, 2010
What's Probable
Regarding a media report of beach erosion in Alabama (canceling a Jimmy Buffet concert).....
I see an onshore wind on the AL coast at 10-20 kts. Here are the model wind speeds at Mobile for the next 72 hours.
06 03 04 05 07 12 14 16 11 10 09 06 07 10 10 10 06 06 05 05 09 (mph)
My analysis indicates a minor, not major effect as Alex strengthens. Alex is TOO FAR WEST of the spill to cause beach erosion in Alabama or Florida.
Swells will make offshore oil cleanup operations difficult the and the swells will give the usually calm gulf a wave or two, but it will not be major. Of course some in the media will hype the worst case and then some to get ratings. I'll be surprised if there is any significant erosion.
Did you see the Gulf behind CBS live shots at 630 on the Evening News with Katie Couric...as they were talking about rough seas? Yawn.
Yes, there will be some oil pushed ashore by a southeast breeze, but the main problem continues to be new oil that is still leaking.
Beach erosion in Alabama from a hurricane hitting Mexico, funny! Keep 'em coming.- Jim
Hot
A few thunderstorm will be possible in the afternoon and evening this week. There might be an increase in activity later in the week as more moisture will be in the area by Friday and Saturday. Alex is strengthening, but I don't see Alex having any effect on our weather. As Alex aims for S. Texas and Mexico it will have very little effect on the oil spill, in my opinion - Jim
Brian: Temps in the upper 80's now.. mid 90's later/scattered storms...
Good morning! Midday temperatures are approaching 90 degrees throughout the area with heat indicies in the upper 90's and low 100's. Dewpoints are well into the 70's, so there is plenty of moisture around for afternoon showers and storms. I expect these to develop later today along the Gulf breeze, with the highest concentration of showers and storms along the coast.
For tomorrow, slightly drier air will move in as moisture gets pulled toward what should be an intensifying Alex in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Essentially, what happens is a tremendous amount of rising air or lift will be located in the western Gulf. As a result, the air must sink somewhere and I expect that sinking motion to be in the eastern Gulf. This will work against the formation of thunderstorms tomorrow and the areal coverage of rain should be lower for tomorrow and Wednesday. Highs each day will be in the mid 90's.
By the end of the week, a front will be moving into the southeast and this should help draw moisture from Alex toward the area. I expect higher chances of rain both on Thursday and Friday with a chance of rain earlier in the day each day. By July 4th weekend, high pressure should build in and clear a lot of the tropical moisture away -- so the 4th looks like a pretty standard 4th of July with scattered afternoon storms.
Brian
Brian: 11 AM Advisory.. Alex now a 60 mph tropical storm... will become season's first hurricane..
More coming on 6TV in just about 5 minutes and here on the blog a little later on this afternoon.
Brian
Brian: Alex a tropical storm again, headed toward western Gulf
Good morning! We're going to get new advisory in on Tropical Storm Alex within the hour but, right now, it's a 50 mph tropical storm. Strengthening will likely be slow over the next day or so because of how close it is to land and how shallow (but warm) the water is in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, upper level wind is very weak meaning light wind shear is located near Alex, an optimal situation for strengthening.
The forecast track of Alex is coming into better focus this morning as a trough of low pressure builds into the eastern United States. This is allowing high pressure over the southern tier of the country to weaken and should help draw Alex farther to the north. However, this trough will not be able to completely "pick" Alex up and bring it to the eastern Gulf, so after a tug north for a while, the Alex is expected to move back toward the northern coast of Mexico or south Texas. Alex likely will be a hurricane at landfall, or prior to landfall.
I'll have more on 6 TV later this morning. Have a great day!
Brian
Brian: High clouds from Alex overhead this morning, but Alex stays well west...
Good morning! It's great to be back on the early riser shift this morning. It's going to be a challening forecasting week, not only for the final landfall location of Tropical Storm Alex (I think on the lower Texas coast right now) but also here in southwest Florida as we try to pin down just how Alex will affect our weather.
This morning, some high clouds on the outermost edges of Alex are overhead but deep tropical moisture remains will to the southwest of us (Alex is about 800 miles away this morning). This afternoon, expect scattered showers and storms moving toward the beaches as the Gulf breeze kicks in. A similar pattern will set up for both Tuesday and Wednesday, although there may be fewer storms overall. Highs each day will be in the low to mid 90's. Later this week, as a front moves into the southeast, some of the moisture from Alex should be drawn in our direction and I'm planning on more rain overall for Thursday and Friday -- some could even be around earlier in the day.
Much more coming later; in the meantime, here is today's forecast:
Naples Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Bonita Springs Scattered PM Storms; High 94
Fort Myers Scattered PM Storms; High 93
Cape Coral Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Port Charlotte Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Hendry Co. Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Glades Co. Scattered PM Storms; High 92
DeSoto Co. Scattered PM Storms; High 92
Have a great Monday!
Brian
Sunday, June 27, 2010
Brian: TD Alex approaching TS strength once again.. back over water now..
Alex is now back over water in the Bay of Campeche (southern Gulf of Mexico). There is a Hurricane Hunter mission ongoing now and they are finding wind right now that is close to if not just above tropical storm force. I expect Alex to regain tropical storm status overnight. The restrengthening of Alex may be slowed somewhat for a while over the southern Gulf where the heat content of the water is not as high as it is farther north. Later, though, as the storm begins to move more toward the north, it will enter more favorable Gulf waters for further development -- not to mention that the upper level wind overtop of Alex will remain light. It is likely Alex will become the first hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic season by Tuesday.
Track forecasts remain tricky now but new upper air data suggests the upper level high pressure over the southeast and south-central part of the country is indeed weakening. This should allow Alex to be drawn farther to the north. The range of possibilities in the models now are from near Louisiana to the central Mexican Gulf coast! So, there's still quite a bit of spread in the track models. We'll have a better idea in the morning as a new batch of forecast models comes in and new upper air data also is available. The weaker that high to the north gets, though, the farther north Alex can come. This storm bears quite a bit of watching for the Texas coast!
I'll have the latest on Alex and how it may impact our weather in southwest Florida later this week starting in the morning at 5. See you then!
Brian
Brian: Alex maintaing organization over Yucatan Peninsula, moving back over the Gulf later today...
The top image I've attached is something we call tropical cyclone heat potential. Basically, the warmer colors show areas that are more conducive for tropical cyclone maintenance and strengthening. Essentially, TCHP is a measure of not only how warm the water is, but also how deep (the depth of 80+ degree water is important). Prior to landfall on the Yucatan, Alex was able to take advantage of some fairly deep, warm water and strengthened quickly prior to landfall. The second image is one of TCHP in the Gulf of Mexico. Notice how it's fairly low in the southern Gulf (blue colors just west of the Yucatan). Now, this isn't because the water isn't warm here -- it is -- but it's also fairly shallow. This means there's not a large depth of warm water for Alex to work with. Farther north though, off the NE Mexico/Texas coast, notice how TCHP increases steadily to levels similar to what it encountered in the western Caribbean.
The path Alex takes toward the WNW will be key in determining just how strong the storm can get prior to its next, and final, landfall. Right now, most of our hurricane models take it to a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane strength at landfall. These models, as you can see in the third image, are generally taking Alex to the WNW toward the upper Mexican coast. Right now, this path seems to be a reasonable forecast as Alex likely will remain too far south to be significantly affected by a dip in the jet stream expected in the eastern United States over the next few days. A few of our other models, though, do want Alex to be tugged farther north toward the upper Texas coast or even Louisiana. Right now, we don't expect that to happen given how far south Alex is now.
Will Alex have any affect on southwest Florida? Indirectly, yes. It already has -- we've had a few more storms around the past couple of days and I expect moisture to remain on the higher side over the next few days. As we've been saying, mid to late week an unusually strong front is expected to move toward the southeast. This front may act to pull some of the moisture from Alex toward central and south Florida -- so right now we expect the chance of morning and afternoon storms toward week's end. Much depends on the exact track Alex takes, but right now expect more storms and more rain later this week.
Anything else in the tropics? One area to watch later this week will be off the southeast coast as that unusually strong front for this time of year heads toward the south. Many of our models are trying to spin up a tropical or extratropical system along this front and take it to the northeast toward Bermuda. This is a pattern that can allow for these "homegrown" storms to develop. It won't have any impact on us if it happens, but it is possible something could spin up along the front off the east coast later this week. Elsewhere, none of our reliable models are developing anything in the tropics over the next 5 days.
Brian
Saturday, June 26, 2010
Brian: Tropical Storm Alex scraping north of Honduras this morning.. headed toward Yucatan
Good morning! Tropical Depression One became Tropical Storm Alex overnight and is scrapping by the northeast coast of Central America this morning. There has been an increase in the intensity of thunderstorms near the center of circulation, although so far the pressure/wind has not responded by falling/increasing. This is common, though, and I do expect Alex to gain some strength later this afternoon before making landfall on the Yucatan. Right now, it's a minimal (40 mph) tropical storm.
Most of our forecast models continued the shift southwest with the track of Alex over the coming days, taking it across the Yucatan and eventually toward the upper Mexican coast or Texas as potentially a strong tropical storm. As we've been stressing though, we won't know a whole lot until we see what kind of shape Alex is in after crossing the Yucatan, which will act to disrupt its circulation significantly. We're also watching a developing trough of low pressure in the east that should work to weaken and split the high located over the southeast and south-central part of the country -- the same high that will keep Alex well south of us this weekend.
We do not anticipate any kind of hard turn toward the north and northeast back toward south Florida. However, depending on the strength of the oncoming eastern United States trough, we may see a significant batch of moisture head toward the area along a developing front mid to late next week. There are still a lot of questions here, so stay tuned!
Either way, expect the chances of rain to remain on the lower end this weekend in southwest Florida as the tropical moisture is kept to our south. It'll be continued hot with highs still in the mid 90's each afternoon.
Have a great weekend!
Brian
Friday, June 25, 2010
Brian: Leaning toward drier weather this weekend, still hot
I'm waiting on some of the new forecast models to come in, but I continue to lean toward the drier models for this weekend. High pressure remains anchored across the southeast and this should suppress most of the tropical moisture associated with Tropical Depression One to our south for the weekend. With that said, they'll be a little more moisture around and the upper level flow will be a bit weaker, so there should be a few more storms. Just don't expect all day rains either Saturday or Sunday.
Highs will again be in the mid 90's both weekend days. Expect cooler temperatures and more rain headed toward the middle and end of next week, although this forecast is highly dependant on the future of TD 1. I'll have more on 6 TV in about 15 minutes and on WINK at 11.
Brian
Brian: TD1 could become Alex as early as tonight... as it heads toward the Yucatan
Good evening! I'm about to show a graphic coming up on WINK at 7 pm that shows some of the forecast factors (or better yet, limiting factors) in the development of TD1, likely soon to be Alex. It's very close to the Honduras coast right now and will only spend another 36 hours or so over water before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula. Granted, this will be a trip across very warm water with relatively light wind shear (for now), but I don't expect this to become more than a minimal tropical storm before reaching the Yucatan.
Beyond that, a lot will depend on how this storm looks when it leaves the Yucatan late in the weekend. The wind shear is forecast to be weak to moderate depending on which model you look at for next week across the Gulf. To complicate matters, high pressure that has been baking the south over the last several days is forecast to weaken and split as a trough of low pressure digs into the southeast. If this trough is strong, it will have the potential to bring tropical moisture (perhaps a storm) more toward the northern Gulf coast.. a weaker trough would tend to leave this moisture more toward the western Gulf. There are a lot of variables at play and, frankly, we won't have a good idea until this leaves the Yucatan.
In any event, no direct impact on southwest Florida is expected. However, depending on how things evolve, a deeper trough in the east could leave us with a very wet mid to late week period as whatever's left of TD1 gets pulled toward the front. More on that coming up in minutes on WINK.
Brian
Brian: A few fast moving showers moving through southwest Florida.. a bit more moisture around tomorrow
Tomorrow's forecast hinges heavily on the tropical development to our south; not that the system will directly affect us -- it won't -- but the question is, how much tropical moisture makes it this far north. Right now, I'm leaning toward our drier models with high pressure still entrenched aloft. Expect scattered storms tomorrow afternoon, more the farther south you go across the area, with highs in the low to mid 90's. Most of the tropical moisture will shoot toward the Yucatan and western Gulf over the weekend and early next week. There is a chance some of the deep tropical moisture could push toward SWFL by the middle to end of next week. Right now, though, everything is very much up in the air pending how much of this tropical disturbance survives its trip across the Yucatan! More coming later...
Brian
Brian: Tropical wave in western Caribbean, near Honduras, high chance of becoming a depression..
The tropical wave we've been watching in the Caribbean remains somewhat disorganized, but looks more together now than it did this time yesterday. Upper level wind has weakened quite a bit and it is located over some very warm water with high heat content. We expect this to become a tropical depression, perhaps as early as late this afternoon. The track will take it toward Central America/Yucatan Peninsula this weekend; after that, there are a lot of questions with regard to track. A lot depends on how strong (or not strong) 93L gets. I'll have the latest tonight starting at 5 pm.
Brian
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Brian: Pressures falling in the NW Caribbean... signs of slow organization emerging...
I'm just starting to get a look at some of the latest ship and buoy observations in the Caribbean and they're pointing toward the development of (for the first time) a broad circulation with tropical wave 93L. The lowest pressure I can find is now down to 1007 mb near the deepest thunderstorm activity; elsewhere in the area, pressures are more on the order of 1010 mb. So, there is a low center apparent tonight.
All of the new forecast guidance has this wave passing well south of southwest Florida as we've been telling you, eventually toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Even the strongest of forecast model guidance only takes this to a modest tropical storm, as it interacts with land on the Yucatan and fights some enhanced wind shear over the southern Gulf of Mexico. This is all very questionable though until we actually get a storm to develop.
Brian
Brian: NHC upgrades tropical wave development chance to high in next 48 hours
Over the last couple of hours, showers and storms have become more organized in the western Caribbean, a little south of Jamaica. As it's evening (no visible satellite) and the disturbance is still not incredibly well organized, it's difficult to pinpoint where the center is but it appears to be somewhere between Honduras and Jamaica. Wind shear is very light in this area (less than 10 knots), so there is no reason why this shouldn't organize more overnight. We may very well have our first depression of the Atlantic season by tomorrow. Details coming up tonight on WINK.
Brian
Brian: Hot & mainly dry this afternoon... just a few quick moving showers/storms...
As we approach 4 pm today, the radar is pretty quiet across most of southwest Florida with just a few isolated showers dotting the area. Otherwise, it's another hot and breezy afternoon with temperatures again climbing well into the 90's. Scott and I are watching some tropical moisture to the south but, the big question is, will that affect your weekend? It's not a sure thing one way or the other! We'll explain starting at 5 tonight.
Brian
Brian: Tropical wave active, but still disorganized in northern Caribbean
A broad tropical wave continues to bring heavy rain to much of the north central Caribbean. Currently, the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a medium (40%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours. Right now, the wave is still being impacted by some stronger wind shear on its north side (around 20 knots), but shear is expected to weaken over the coming couple of days. It continues to be guided westward slowly but a strong ridge of high pressure to the north (the same area of high pressure that's been giving us the relatively drier and hot days here in southwest Florida).
Over the next couple of days, this tropical moisture is expected to move west-northwestward toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Just one of our forecast models (the GFS) brings any significant increase in tropical moisture to the area over the weekend; right now, I'm leaning toward a continued dry forecast for southwest Florida this weekend. As we head into the end of the weekend and early next week, the strong area of high pressure is expected to weaken some, perhaps enough to bring tropical moisture and/or a developed system toward the western or central Gulf of Mexico. Right now, even the strongest of tropical forecast models bring this wave to no more than tropical storm strength but, in all honesty, we won't really know until it actually develops into an organized area of low pressure -- which as not happened yet.
Scott and I will have the latest on your forecast and on the wave coming up tonight at 5!
Brian
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Brian: A few storms well offshore, frequent lightning over the Gulf.. dry/warm over land
A warm night is in store for southwest Florida, owing to this afternoon's relatively dry weather across the area. Expect lows to average in the mid to upper 70's most spots, with some locations remaining in the lower 80's overnight. Even drier air is expected to be overhead tomorrow and Thursday, with afternoon highs pressing into the mid to upper 90's across much of the area. Just a few isolated storms are expected each day.
Tropical moisture will try to take a swipe at the area from the south by Saturday and Sunday, although high pressure may end up winning out, blocking most of this to the south. Either way, expect an increase in the rain chance as we head toward the weekend with mainly afternoon storms.
By early next week, a lot of tropical moisture is expected to be in the central or western Gulf of Mexico. I've attached the forecast from the European forecast model for Tuesday morning, one of the many models that suggest the first tropical cyclone of the season could be located in the central or western Gulf. Again, because of high pressure blocking the eastern Gulf, we do not expect a system - developed or otherwise - to affect south Florida. We may see some moisture from whatever develops, though, get pulled eastward as a trough of low pressure builds over the east coast. We have many days to watch things unfold though!
Brian
Brian: Heavy rain affecting Marco Island, Naples Manor.. moving offshore
Our radar is estimating 0.5 - 1.0" of rain over the last hour in far southwest Collier County where these storms are now located. They will be moving offshore over the next few minutes and you should be dry by 5 PM in these areas.
Elsewhere, a few storms also located near SR-29 through Collier County and some more isolated activity a little farther north toward the Lee Island Coast. All storms are moving to the east at a fairly steady rate, so excessive rainfall is not likely today.
It was another hot day across southwest Florida with temperatures in the low to mid 90's most spots. A similar set-up over the next few afternoons (if not a bit drier Wednesday and Thursday) as drier air moves in to the north side of a tropical wave in the Caribbean.
The latest on your forecast is just 17 minutes away on WINK-TV.
Brian
Brian: A few storms developing again over coastal Collier County.. moving quickly into the Gulf..
Steering wind is much strong today allowing for showers and storms to quickly move into the Gulf of Mexico with time. Overall, it's a much drier day across southwest Florida and expect only isolated storms over the next couple of hours.
Brian
Brian: Fewer storms this afternoon, but some could be gusty...
Drier air has moved in from the east this afternoon as an easterly flow has finally become established (it is a bit breezier as well early this afternoon). This drier air should help cut the rain chances today down into the isolated category but, often times, dry air aloft also can help produce a few gustier thunderstorms. So, we'll be on the look out for some strong wind gusts in the storms that do develop, largely along the afternoon sea breeze along and west of I-75.
Brian
Brian: No major changes to tropical wave in central Caribbean...
Good afternoon! Some of the new forecast models are starting to come in and continue to point toward tropical moisture/tropical wave(s) remaining to our south over the next several days as a ridge of high pressure digs in over the eastern two-thirds of the country. This ridge will gradually be eroded by upper level disturbances moving through the northern tier of the country of the next seven days perhaps eventually allowing more tropical moisture to work north and west (more west than anything), but overall, we remain protected from any potential developments in the central Atlantic. In fact, our weather pattern should be a bit drier than average over the next 3, perhaps 4, afternoons.
There has been no major change to the organization of Invest 93L in the central Caribbean, located over and south of Hispanolia and Puerto Rico. Despite relatively weak wind shear over a bulk of the system, it's still not showing signs of becoming a terribly well organized system. Most of our models do suggest some slow development over the next few days as it tracks toward the west and WNW, headed toward the Yucatan Peninsula by the end of the week. The hurricane/tropical-specific models all do generally develop this into at least a tropical depression as it moves into the western Caribbean. Right now, wind shear is fairly strong in the NW Caribbean but is forecast to weaken. Beyond this, whatever becomes of Invest 93L is likely headed into the western Gulf of Mexico.
I'll have a more full update later as our new forecast models come in!
Brian
Monday, June 21, 2010
Brian: 3.00" of rain tonight in Cape Coral, 2.10" in Punta Gorda..
We still have some light to moderate rain falling steadily through Charlotte County but, overall, the activity is coming to an end for tonight. Some of the new forecast models are trickling in now and continue to point to drier air moving in for the middle 3 days of the work week. Beyond that, we'll have to turn our eyes to the tropics and the potential developing system (or systems?) in the Caribbean. One of our new short range models has a developed system approaching the Yucatan Channel (south of there) by Friday. I still think we'll be protected by strong high pressure over the southeast, but it will certainly be worth watching.
Lauren will have the latest for you coming up tomorrow starting at 5 AM. Have a great Tuesday!
Brian
Brian: Tropical wave in eastern Caribbean not organized yet.. but 50% chance of development..
The latest update from the National Hurricane Center now gives the tropical wave (which is really still a disorganized conglomeration of thunderstorms) in the central and eastern Caribbean a 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. I'll have the latest coming up tonight at 11 pm. We still expect this wave to remain well south of southwest Florida.
Brian
Brian: Heavy rain winding down across Alva, Buckingham, North Fort Myers, & Charlotte County...
Showers and storms are finally starting to wind down across Lee and Charlotte Counties. Inland and on the east coast, it's dry this evening and clear and this will be moving in to the coastal sections of our area overnight. Plan on drier weather for tomorrow. Scott has the latest forecast in just minutes on 6 TV.
Brian
Brian: Storms moving through US-41 corridor in Lee County
Areas of heavy rain will continue to affect San Carlos Park, South
Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and North Fort Myers over the next 30 minutes.
Elsewhere, largely just isolated showers remain at this hour. The
storms in Lee should move toward Charlotte Harbor and the Cape Haze
peninsula before moving out into the Gulf.
Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and North Fort Myers over the next 30 minutes.
Elsewhere, largely just isolated showers remain at this hour. The
storms in Lee should move toward Charlotte Harbor and the Cape Haze
peninsula before moving out into the Gulf.
Brian
Brian: A few storms lingering over Lee and Charlotte
There are still a few pockets of heavy rain over parts of Lee and
Charlotte Counties this evening. These storms are moving through Fort
Myers right now, as well as near Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda.
Charlotte Counties this evening. These storms are moving through Fort
Myers right now, as well as near Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda.
Brian
Brian: Heavy rain/freq ltg/strong wind headed toward Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda
A line of strong storms is moving north through Charlotte County headed toward Charlotte Harbor and the Peace River. Expect another round of torrential downpours, gusty wind, and frequent lightning as these storms move over Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte.
Elsewhere, light to moderate rain continues to fall through the rest of Lee and Collier Counties.
Brian
Brian: Storms continuing to affect south Lee & Collier Counties..
Radar is estimating over an inch of rain in the last hour from near Estero south through the Naples area. These storms continue to move toward the north and northwest, headed toward Fort Myers and Cape Coral. Storms are also affecting Charlotte County near I-75, including Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda with more isolated activity across inland southwest Florida.
Brian
Brian: Strong storms moving into south Lee County.. Bonita Springs, Estero, San Carlos Park..
Strong storms are moving out of Collier County and into Lee County this afternoon, storms that have a history of torrential downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty wind. Expect heavy rain and storms to affect the urban corridor of south Lee County over the next 30-45 minutes, eventually moving toward Cape Coral as we head toward 5 PM.
Brian
Brian: Showers and storms moving northwest through Collier County, headed toward south Lee County..
Showers and storms are moving more quickly today through coastal Collier County, headed toward south Lee County.
Brian
Brian: INVEST 93L becoming more organized... medium chance of development...
The National Hurricane Center has now upgraded the possibility of development of the wave in the eastern Caribbean to medium over the next 48 hours (INVEST 93L). This system is located underneath very weak wind shear (less than 10 knots) and over warm water.. although not quite as deep, warm water as is located to its northwest near Jamaica and Cuba. The new forecast models coming in do show some organization with this system as it tracks to the west and eventually northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula of eastern Mexico later this week. In the short term, the Gulf of Mexico remains blocked by a strong ridge of high pressure that's centered over the lower Mississippi River Valley. This ridge is forecast to weaken some later this week, potentially opening up the southern Gulf for tropical moisture. Scott and I will have more on this and your week's forecast coming up tonight at 5.
Brian
Brian: INVEST 93L in Caribbean one to watch... development possible
The National Hurricane Center is giving the newest tropical wave of the Atlantic season, INVEST 93L, a low (20%) chance of development over the next 48 hours. It is south of the strong wind shear over the northern Caribbean and, while disorganized now, many of our models forecast at least some organization over the next few days. This disturbance will remain trapped to the south in the Caribbean for the next few days but may get a chance to move north into the Gulf by late week as the strong area of high pressure controlling our weather right now breaks down. The newest forecast models are just coming in now and I'll have the latest on them coming up tonight beginning at 5 PM on WINK.
Otherwise, expect a few drier days across southwest Florida, especially kicking in starting tomorrow.
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Brian: Tropical moisture dominating picture in the eastern Caribbean...
Good evening! Showers and thunderstorms are covering a good chunk of real estate this evening in the eastern half of the Caribbean Sea as the tropical wave we've tracked for the last week -- INVEST 92L -- makes its way toward Hispanolia and Cuba. There is also some additional energy coming out of the central Atlantic behind 92L; in fact, the amount of convection in the central and eastern Atlantic is much more like something you'd see in mid summer rather than the first day of summer (top image, wide-view of the Atlantic satellite).
That said, upper level wind remains unfavorable for any sort of organized tropical activity in the Caribbean, for now. This moisture will continue to work westward to the south of a ridge of high pressure that is located over much of the Gulf and Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center is giving the areas in the eastern Caribbean a low (<10%) chance of development and I generally agree with these thoughts (second image).
Later this week, the large high that's been controlling our weather over the southeast will likely begin to break down and this will allow some of the tropical moisture to start to work toward the north. A couple of our forecast models even indicate the possibility of some slow development in the Florida Straits or northern Caribbean as upper level wind becomes more favorable for organization (remember, the water is unusually warm to an unusally deep depth for this time of year!). Whether something develops or not, we should see more showers and storms move into the picture late week after a period of slightly drier days at mid week.
This scenario all fits with the evolution that's been on our long range forecast models for a couple of weeks now -- an uptick in activity in the Caribbean and Gulf (but not necessarily development). This is all coincident with something known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation: periods of enhanced and suppressed upward motion that move eastward through the tropics. Right now, there is an enhanced phase of the MJO in the eastern Pacific (not coincidentally, where there is a hurricane and tropical storm as I write this) -- this phase will be moving into the Atlantic basin over the next week which favors increased thunderstorm activity.
Stay tuned, it could be an interesting next couple of weeks!
Brian
Brian: Clearing out now, temperatures in the 70's overnight...
The rain and storms from earlier have cleared out of southwest Florida leaving behind just a partly cloudy sky and temperatures in the 70's. Some damage reports from today include a possible tornado in North Fort Myers/Cape Coral, .25" hail reported in the Cape, lightning damaging a roof in the Cape, and several structures damaged in Bonita Springs. This is not to mention the heavy rain many places saw -- including about 4" of it in North Fort Myers! We'll have a recap of the day's severe weather on WINK at 11, and 6 TV now.
Brian
Brian: 4.00" of rain in North Fort Myers, nearly 3.00" in Cape Coral..
Rain is starting to wind down now with just some light to moderate rain lingering across parts of the area. Expect a mostly clear sky overnight with lows in the mid 70's. Coming up on WINK, I'll have some dramatic pictures of the storms that moved through the area... significant damage reported in Bonita Springs, where there may have been a tornado. The National Weather Service will do a damage survey tomorrow.
I'll be on WINK with your forecast in just minutes.
Brian
Brian: Tropics to turn active next week..
I'm just finishing up my look at the newest forecast models and they're all continuing to point toward a significant increase in tropical moisture across the Caribbean then, later, the Gulf this week. There is the potential for some development as we head toward the end of the week. I'll have the latest for you tonight at 6:30.
Brian
Brian: Heavy rain continues in DeSoto County for next 30-45 minutes...
A thunderstorm continues to dump heavy rain over most of DeSoto County, including Arcadia. This storm is moving to the northwest slowly and will move out of our area over the next half hour or so. Elsewhere, there isn't a whole lot going on with a few pockets of light rain sprinkled across SWFL; activity should be winding down over the next couple of hours throughout the area.
Brian
Brian: Slow moving storms in Charlotte, DeSoto, Highlands Counties..
Today's storms are moving slowly to the northwest with time. A storm that has had a history of possibly producing a tornado is moving out of far north Lee County and headed toward Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, and the Cape Haze. It is not as strong, though, as it was earlier in the day. There is also a storm moving out of southeast DeSoto County headed toward Arcadia. This will affect central DeSoto over the next 30 minutes with very heavy rain.
Brian
Brian: Tornado warning expires for Lee/Charlotte.. still expect frq ltg, hvy rain, strong wind
This storm continues to slowly move into Charlotte County. We'll continue to watch it but, for now, the tornado warning has been allowed to expire.
Brian
Brian: Tornado warning continues for North Lee/South Charlotte until 4:30 pm..
There is a storm showing some rotation in Northwest Cape Coral. This storm has the potential to produce a tornado and certainly will produce torrential rain, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and strong, gusty wind. Take cover if you're in Charlotte County as this storm is heading in your direction!
Brian: Gulf and Caribbean could be active over the next 7-10 days...
I'll have a more detailed post later, but I've been watching some of our longer range models (that run out 2-3 weeks) over the last several days and they are pointing toward enhanced upward motion/thunderstorm activity in the Caribbean and possibly the Gulf of Mexico over the next 7-10 days. We already have one wave moving through Puerto Rico and Hispanolia now (the wave we've been tracking all week from the central Atlantic) and there is an unusual amount of activity in the belt between 10 degrees north latitude and 5 degrees north latitude out in the central and eastern Atlantic (the inter-tropical convergence zone or ITCZ). Whether anything actually organizes in the Caribbean or Gulf over the next 7-10 days is a point up for debate (none of our reliable models spin up a low at this point), but the water in these areas is very warm, and wind shear is forecast to be significantly weaker/non-existent as we move into next week.
Brian
Brian: Showers and a few storms starting to develop near coast along Gulf breeze..
Good afternoon! Showers and a few thunderstorms are starting to develop at this hour along the afternoon Gulf breeze, which right now is pinned right along the coast. The Gulf breeze should work inland a little later on this afternoon leading to the best chance of showers and storms being near I-75 and US-41 later today. It's another day of very weak steering flow at about 10,000 feet; showers and storms today should move slowly toward the north and west with time later today. The steering flow will pick up from the east later this week as the tropical wave we've been telling you about over the last several days begins to approach the Florida Straits.
Expect highs this afternoon to run in the low 90's, with a few spots that stay drier punching into the mid 90's. I'll have much more on your forecast later today on WINK News at 6:30 pm; hope you can join us. Have a great Father's Day!
Brian
Friday, June 18, 2010
Brian: Clearing sky tonight, lows in the mid 70's.. slow-moving storms again tomorrow
Have a great weekend!
Brian
Brian: Still some pockets of moderate rain between Palmdale, LaBelle and North Naples..
The heaviest of the rain has come and gone this evening after dropping 2"+ across parts of the area. There are still some light to moderate showers stretching from Glades County, through Lee County, and into Collier County -- slowly drifting westward -- but these, too, should wind down as we move toward sunset. Expect a mainly clear sky overnight with morning lows in the mid 70's tomorrow.
The storms and showers might move a little bit more quickly tomorrow but, overall, the trend will be for slow movers. By Sunday, the steering flow will be faster and storms should move more quickly toward the beaches. Highs over the weekend will be in the low 90's.
I have the latest on your forecast coming up at 7 on WINK!
Brian
Brian: Showers & storms starting to wind down... still some areas of heavy rain over Cape Coral..
Some rainfall totals coming in to us:
Arcadia 1.89"
Ft. Myers 1.77"
Gateway 1.50" (.25" hail)
Whiskey Creek/South Fort Myers 1.41"
More coming on WINK in just minutes...
Brian
Brian: Downburst possible near SE Cape... watch out for very strong wind/heavy rain
It appears on our skycam a downburst is over southeast Cape Coral which could feature wind gusts well above 40 mph. Take cover if you're in south Cape; a strong storm continues to head in your direction.
Brian
Brian: Heavy rain just east of FMB.. headed toward SE Cape and Fort Myers...
Rainfall rates with this activity are on the order of 3-4" per hour and these totals are likely being realized across parts of southwest Florida as these storms are only moving around 5 mph to the northwest. We should see things quieting down as we head toward sunset... with a mostly clear sky in your overnight forecast. We'll do it all over again tomorrow with slow moving storms in your forecast.
Brian
Brian: Torrential downpours continue through most of Lee County... heavy rain approaching Cape Coral...
A very busy afternoon is underway with storms containing torrential downpours and frequent lightning drifting toward the coast in Lee County. These storms will reach Fort Myers and Cape Coral over the next hour or so.
Brian
Brian: Heavy storms moving through Collier and Lee Counties.. headed northwest
Very slow-moving storms are drenching a lot of Lee County and Collier County, just away from the coast. The heaviest stretches through Lehigh Acres, Golden Gate, and Immokalee. Over the next hour or so, this will be moving slowly toward I-75 and US-41 and into the urban corridor from Naples to Fort Myers. Expect torrential downpours, frequent lightning and the potential for strong, gusty wind. There was a report earlier this afternoon of a wind gust to 45 mph in Estero. These storms will be moving offshore over the next couple of hours.
Brian
Brian: Strong storms moving through Lehigh, San Carlos Park, Estero.. headed westward...
Storms rapidly developing along the Gulf breeze/outflow boundaries across all of southwest Florida. Storms in Lee and Collier Counties are headed toward the coast. Most of the highly populated urban coridor from Fort Myers south to Naples and Marco Island will be affected over the next hour or two.
Brian
Brian: Heavy rain/storms near Everglades City and SR-29 in Collier... headed west...
If these storms hold together, they will move toward the Collier County coastline during the 4pm hour.
Brian
Brian: Numerous showers and storms througout SWFL.. an active afternoon in store..
Showers and thunderstorms are quickly developing during the heating of the afternoon across a lot of southwest Florida, with the most active weather north of the Caloosahatchee through DeSoto and Highlands Counties. There is also a batch of heavy rain/storms across Collier County (mainly south and inland there). Expect showers and storms to drift around slowly over the next few hours with pockets of heavy rain in some of these storms. I'll continue to update you throughout the afternoon.
Brian
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Brian: High wind shear over tropical wave... but thunderstorms continue to fire...
One last image for tonight; the above is wind shear over the Atlantic. The brighter red the color, the higher the wind shear. 30+ knots of wind shear are located over the tropical wave near the Leeward Islands, yet thunderstorms continue to develop near the center of circulation. Really, this is quite remarkable. Shear is still prohibitive for storm development, but this is at least very interesting to follow!
Brian
Brian: Another hot day; how hot? Check out this pic!
Brian: Atlantic tropical wave still worth watching..
The latest forecast models are just coming in and they continue to say that the Atlantic tropical wave is worth watching as it moves across the islands of the northern Caribbean and heads toward the Bahamas early next week. At this point, even the most robust of models take it up to only tropical depression strength as it approaches the Bahamas early next week, so development continues to be unlikely. It will be interacting with some rugged terrain in the northern Caribbean and traveling through high wind shear through much of the next few days; that said, the fact that the convection (thunderstorms) is still so active is a sign that this wave is still worth watching.
The wind shear is pushing all of those storms away from the center of circulation, so development anytime soon is just not possible. At the very least, expect an increase in moisture around southwest Florida by the middle of next week. I'll have the latest forecast for you coming up at 11 on WINK. Hope you can join us!
Brian
Brian: Tropical wave badly sheared in Atlantic, but still alive..
The tropical wave I've been watching in the Atlantic the last several days is experiencing very high wind shear yet is maintaining at least some of its convection as it approaches the Leeward Islands. The center of circulation is still evident on satellite (I'll show you this at 5:45 on WINK), with all of the thunderstorms pushed away from the center due to the southwesterly shear. This wave should bring tropical moisture toward south Florida by the middle of next week.
Brian
Brian: Pea-sized hail reported with storm in Lehigh Acres..
Showers & storms are becoming more numerous farther south into south Lee County and Collier County. Expect areas of heavy rain in slow-moving storms over these communities over the next hour or two. Updates on WINK coming in just minutes.
Brian
Brian: T-storm moving east along Caloosahatchee toward Alva & Lehigh
With this storm, we've picked up about a quarter inch of rain outside our studio. Radar is indicating about 100 lightning strikes with it in the last few minutes. The storm is moving slowly eastward along the Caloosahatchee toward Tice, Buckingham and Alva.. also the north side of Lehigh Acres.
Brian
Brian: Expect new storms to develop on a line from Palmdale to Cape Coral next hour or so...
Outflow boundary is working south and east from the storms that developed earlier today over northern parts of the area. This, coupled with the afternoon Gulf breeze, should lead to the development of a new line of showers and storms from Glades County into Lee County over the next hour or so.
Brian
Brian: Slow moving storms developing across northern parts of area..
Showers and storms are beginning to fire up along the afternoon sea breeze through DeSoto, Charlotte and Highlands Counties with some additional activity beginning to form over northeast Cape Coral and North Fort Myers. Showers and storms should continue to fill in along the sea breeze through Lee County and Collier County where isolated activity is now. These storms will have a slow drift inland initially but later, because of weak steering currents, they will have the opportunity to move back to the coastline late.
Brian
The 3rd Tropical Cyclone of the Eastern Pacific Season Has Formed
A mere 24 hours after the second tropical cyclone of the Eastern
Pacific Season formed off the southern Mexican coastline...Tropical
Depression Three-E formed this morning and quickly strengthened to
become Tropical Storm Blas.
Pacific Season formed off the southern Mexican coastline...Tropical
Depression Three-E formed this morning and quickly strengthened to
become Tropical Storm Blas.
TD 3-E became Blas in a matter of 40 minutes...at 8:00am PDT the
system was declared a depression and at 8:40am PDT was upgraded to
storm status due to data received from a ship regarding the system's
wind speeds. Presently, Blas' wind speeds are at 40 mph and it's
movement to the northeast at 2 mph.
As this system was developing, another was fizzling: Tropical
Depression Two-E lost it's center of circulation overnight and
continues to dissipate...all tropical storm watches and warnings in
effect for parts of the Mexican coastline associated with Two-E have
been canceled.
Tropical Storm Blas is also not expected to have a long lifetime as
the National Hurricane Center is predicting that Blas will weaken to a
depression by the weekend as it continues to push out into the
Pacific.
Lauren
Brian: Slow-moving storms again in today's forecast... not as hot...
Good morning! I just got started on the forecast and everything appears in line for cooler temperatures to move into southwest Florida over the next few days. As high pressure breaks down overhead, coupled with all the moisture in the ground from yesterday's heavy rain event, we should highs in the mid 90's today instead of upper 90's. By tomorrow and into the weekend, we're into the lower 90's -- sure, it's still hot, but seasonably so (remember, average high now is about 92!).
A weak trough is moving overhead aloft in the northern part of the state. The steering flow will be quite weak again this afternoon and there is the opportunity of showers and storms just about anywhere. However, I think we may see a slight bit more of inland push with the storms (at least initially late this afternoon) with a light westerly component to the steering flow. The currents remain quite weak again tomorrow before picking up more out of the northeast and east for the weekend -- this will mean a more steady push of storms to the beaches late in the day.
I'm still watching the potential for some tropical moisture to affect the area by Wednesday of next week. This will be associated with the old tropical wave (INVEST 92L) we were watching in the central Atlantic. This wave is no longer organized but still does have quite a bit of thunderstorm activity with it as it heads toward the northeast Caribbean. It'll be important to watch how well the t-storm activity is organized as it moves across the islands this weekend; that will give us some hint as to just how high our rain chance will be by mid-week.
Brian
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Brian: Storm pics from Cape Coral...
Brian: 4000+ lightning strikes last hour over Collier County & offshore.. settling down now
Showers and storms are finally drawing to a close across Collier County after a very active early evening. Rainfall totals generally in the 1-2" range with Doppler estimates even higher in inland sections of Lee and Collier.. in fact, radar estimating over 5" of rain over the middle of Lehigh!
Expect another round of slow moving storms tomorrow... with more of a drift inland with time. I'm on with the details on WINK in just a couple of minutes.
Brian
Brian: Heaviest rain now exiting Lee Island Coast... still light rain most of Lee & Collier..
The heaviest of the rain from this evening's storms is pushing out into the Gulf of Mexico with light rain still persisting across much of Lee & Collier Counties (along with a few pockets of heavier rain). Expect this to continue for the next hour or so, eventually dissipating as we approach midnight.
Our sky will become mostly clear by tomorrow morning and, because of this evening's rain, we will now wake up to temperatures that will be a bit cooler than the past few mornings (mid 70's most spots). Expect another hot day tomorrow with highs in the mid 90's, although they may be just a touch cooler than today in places that did see some of the heavy rain (some of the sun's energy goes into evaporating all of the additional soil moisture!).
See you at 10 & 11!
Brian
Brian: Frequent lightning, torrential downpours moving through San Carlos Park/Estero...
The heaviest of the activity is moving through central and south Lee County now, headed toward Fort Myers Beach and Bonita Beach in the next 15 minutes. Expect rain rates of well over 2" per hour and frequent lightning in storms. Most of the heaviest activity is now exiting the Collier County coastline, with some heavy rain still hanging on right at the beaches.
Elsewhere, a severe thunderstorm warning continues for Glades County until 9 PM.
Brian
Brian: Torrential rain over much of central and eastern Lee County.. coastal Collier..
A line of very strong storms and heavy rain continues from near the Collier County coast northeast to near Palmdale. The line is starting to bow somewhat meaning there is the potential for some strong, gusty wind -- particularly over central and southern Lee County. Scott and I will continue to bring you the latest on WINK-TV throughout the evening.
Brian
Brian: Heavy rain falling in east Lee County.. Collier County.. 1 hr totals: 2"+
The line continues to drift toward the west, most notably in Collier County (motion slower in Lee County). Expect heavy rain to continue over a lot of Lehigh Acres and east Lee County over the next 30 minutes or so, and over Collier County from Everglades City north to Golden Gate.
Brian
Brian: Tornado warning for Highlands County... cell west of US-27 near Sebring
A hook pattern has appeared on Doppler radar near US-27 west of Sebring in Highlands County; it is these hook echoes that are indicative of potential rotation in storms and, for that reason, a tornado warning is in effect for Highlands County until 7:45 pm.
Elsewhere, a line of heavy rain and storms is getting closer to I-75 in Collier County. Already this line has a history of dropping well over 2" of rain per Doppler radar. Get ready for some heavy rain if you live along the Collier County coast over the next hour or so.
Brian
Brian: Very heavy rain continues over Collier just east of I-75
Heavy rain continues over inland Collier now in some very slow moving storms. Doppler radar is estimating over 2" of rain in the last hour with these storms for places like Immokalee and eastern Golden Gate. These storms will continue to track slowly westward toward I-75. More activity is now popping up in Lee County over the east side of Lehigh Acres.
Brian
Brian: Late arriving storms popping up across inland SWFL...
Showers and storms are becoming more numerous now as the afternoon sea breeze works its way inland. Heaviest activity now is through DeSoto County and Collier County, but the sea breeze is clearly evident on radar through Charlotte and Lee and it's only a matter of time before storms fire there. These again will be slow moving storms, so expect some heavy downpours through sunset or just after. Scott has the latest coming up at 7.
Brian
Brian: Storms developing over Arcadia, along US-17.. soon to follow in Charlotte?
The outflow/sea breeze collision I mentioned a bit earlier is becoming an active location for thunderstorm development as a broken line of showers/storms now stretches through Arcadia into southern DeSoto County. Some additional slow moving storms are in south Hendry County and Collier County -- west of Golden Gate and near the Alley. Full update just minutes away on WINK..
Brian
Brian: Storms firing inland now, watching Gulf breeze front over DeSoto & Charlotte Counties...
Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage across southwest Florida, with a majority of the activity located over Hendry and Collier Counties. There are also storms developing along the Gulf breeze/outflow collisions over DeSoto County and this area will need to be watched for new development over the next hour or so. My full forecast is just about 8 minutes away on WINK.
Brian
Brian: PM Gulf breeze approaching DeSoto County, eastern Charlotte County.. storms to develop
The afternoon Gulf breeze is marching inland toward US-17 in DeSoto County and it's along this line that I'll be watching for the potential for more showers and storms to develop. We also have the east coast sea breeze marching westward and this too could touch off some additional storms across inland southwest Florida.
Brian
Brian: Isolated storms for now across southwest Florida.. another day of heat
Highs today again climbed into the mid to upper 90's this afternoon; Fort Myers hit 98! Another hot day is in the forecast tomorrow before the heat finally begins to abate.. more on that later. In the meantime, a few showers and storms have developed but overall the coverage is much less than yesterday as a lot of the moisture is focused more in north and central Florida. Expect some more storms to develop though later this afternoon and into the early evening as the sea breeze continues to push inland. I'll have much more on your forecast just minutes away on WINK!
Brian
Brian: Gulf breeze kicking in over south Collier, north Lee & Charlotte Counties..
The Gulf breeze is beginning to set up across North Port, through the western shore of Charlotte Harbor and south into Cape Coral. Along this line, we should see some showers and storms develop over the next hour or so.
Brian
Brian: East coast sea breeze kicking in, waiting for Gulf breeze
Good afternoon! It's a hot afternoon already with 1 pm temperatures in the low to mid 90's across most of the area. Expect another hot afternoon with highs again in the mid to upper 90's. Showers and storms will develop a bit later on, likely first along the east coast sea breeze (these will have an opportunity to affect inland southwest Florida a bit later in the afternoon). A bit later, showers and storms should develop along the west coast Gulf breeze and again be slow moving. The heaviest of the rain this afternoon should again be concentrated just inland, with even more inland storms in the forecast tomorrow as the steering level wind, however light, turns more from the northwest.
I'm still expecting slightly cooler weather toward week's end and into the weekend as the high that's controlled our weather the past several days weakens. Expect more coastal storms over the weekend with highs in the lower 90's.
Into next week, it still looks like whatever is left of the tropical wave in the central Atlantic should be approaching the Bahamas and eventually resulting in an uptick in our rain chances in south Florida. Out ahead of it, some drier air should move (you can actually see this now on the water vapor imagery west of the disturbance) leading to fewer storms on Monday. By Tuesday and Wednesday, the wave should move nearby leading to more showers and storms.
More coming later.. have a great afternoon!
Brian
Tropical Depression Two-E Forms in the eastern Pacific
Tropical Depression Two-E has formed in the eastern Pacific off shore
of the southeastern Mexican coastline about 100 miles SSW of Salina
Cruz. TD Two-E's winds are currently at 30 mph and it's movement is
stationary, but a slow west-northwestward motion is expected to begin
later today. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting that the
depression will become a Tropical Storm by late Thursday-early Friday
at which point Two-E will be named 'Blas'.
of the southeastern Mexican coastline about 100 miles SSW of Salina
Cruz. TD Two-E's winds are currently at 30 mph and it's movement is
stationary, but a slow west-northwestward motion is expected to begin
later today. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting that the
depression will become a Tropical Storm by late Thursday-early Friday
at which point Two-E will be named 'Blas'.
The Mexican government has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
southern coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz westward to Lagunas De
Chacahua.
Tropical Depression Two-E is the second tropical cyclone of the
Eastern Pacific Season. Tropical Storm Agatha formed in May. Though, a
relatively weak tropical storm with maximum winds of 45 mph, Agatha
was the deadliest tropical cyclone to form in the eastern Pacific
since Hurricane Pauline in 1997, due to the widespread flooding it
produced across parts of Central America.
Lauren
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Brian: One last evening burst of storms with 92L?
Whether 92L kicks up one last fuss tonight or not, its fate is essentially sealed by the shear zone lying to the west. All of our forecast models keep this shear in place as the wave passes through these longitudes.. this will elongate the system and allow it to ultimately weaken. Now, that doesn't mean the tropical moisture goes away. In fact, over the next 3-5 days, what's left of this wave will head toward Puerto Rico and Hispanolia after crossing the Lesser Antilles; there is the potential for significant flooding on Hispanolia as the wave passes by.
Beyond that, all of our modeling continues to point toward some of the moisture approaching south Florida during the middle part of next week. In our 7-day forecast, this is reflected by some cooler temperatures and higher rain chances starting on Tuesday (perhaps delayed a day into Wednesday). Scott has more on your forecast tonight at 10 on 6 TV and I'll be along a little after 11 tonight with a final update this evening. See you then!
Brian
Brian: New storms developing between LaBelle & Palmdale
Along the collision between the east coast and west coast sea breezes (as well as some outflow boundaries), new storms are developing along US-27 between LaBelle and Palmdale, with the potential for some additional new storms a bit farther north of here. I'll be watching this collision zone closely as it was along this line earlier that a storm with some rotation developed in northwest Highlands County.
Elsewhere, areas of light rain continue over parts of Lee County with a few heavier showers in Collier, including one right over downtown Naples. The latest forecast is coming up on WINK in just minutes.
Brian
Brian: Tornado warning for northwest Highlands County until 5:00 pm..
Radar is clearly indicating rotation with a storm northwest of Sebring now over northwest Highlands County. A tornado warning is in effect there until 5:00 pm. Elsewhere.. slow moving thunderstorms continue.
Brian
Brian: Slow moving storms covering much of central and eastern Lee County..
Heavy rain and storms continue to develop along the afternoon Gulf breeze, most notably along I-75 through Lee County. There are also a few storms back-building a bit closer to the coast in the vicinity of Cape Coral (a heavy shower is over SE Cape right now). Doppler is estimating potentially over 3" of rain over parts of Lehigh with the heaviest cell that is now drifting toward north Lee County. A new line of storms should develop soon over eastern DeSoto County and Highlands County as the central Florida Gulf breeze works toward the middle part of the state.
Radar updates coming up on WINK in just minutes.
Brian
Brian: Heavy rain continues over Lehigh, storm slowly moving northward
Heavy rain continues to fall in a thunderstorm over Lehigh Acres that is only slowly moving to the north; this will soon move toward the Caloosahatchee and into south Charlotte County. There has been an increase in the lightning strikes with this and we're getting word that a brush fire was touched off by the storm in Lehigh.
Brian
Brian: Slow moving storms along the Gulf breeze near I-75
Showers and storms are becoming more numerous now as the heating of the day peaks. These storms are generally lined up near I-75 along the afternoon sea breeze, although they may drift a little farther inland with time later today. Slow movers once again today, which means the potential is there for some heavy 1-2" type rainfall totals in any of the storms.
There are also some storms moving westward out of Broward and Dade Counties from the east coast sea breeze; these potentially could affect Collier County later today into early this evening before all of the activity comes to an end.
Brian
Brian: NOAA Oil Spill Resource Web Site
NOAA has put together a great tool, utilizing Google Earth, where you can plot all sorts of interesting data that relates to the Gulf oil spill; from key locations such as the well head (source of the oil spill), to the latest analysis of the footprint of the oil slick, to some of the high resolution satellite data we show you from time to time on WINK. You can also plot surface data and buoy data to check in on things like the all important wind direction -- which, along with the currents in the area, dictates where the oil may go. Also available is some of the model data from NOAA and the University of South Florida that we've been showing you. Check it out, it's a pretty cool tool!
Brian
Brian: Gulf breeze kicking in, showers & storms later today
Good afternoon! Just finishing up the forecast for this evening and it looks like a similar day to yesterday is in store for us this afternoon. Expect showers and storms to develop later this afternoon along the Gulf breeze, which should have no problem working its way slowly inland later today. Once storms develop, mainly along and just east of I-75, they will move very slowly to the northwest with time, again giving us the opportunity for some very heavy downpours across parts of the area. Along the coast, once we get past mid-afternoon, it should be pretty quiet late this afternoon as most of the action shifts inland.
The heat will abate some later this week as our ridge of high pressure breaks down. Expect highs to still be in the mid 90's for tomorrow and Thursday, but move back into the more seasonable lower 90's by late week and into the weekend. The steering wind will remain light but shift slightly to more of a northwest flow Thursday and Friday as a weak trough sits across the southeast. This should again mean the best chance of rain will be mainly along and east of I-75 for Thursday and Friday.
By the weekend, the easterly flow returns, weak initially and then a little stronger later in the weekend/early next week. This should lead to more showers and storms along the coast in the afternoon and early evening.
The tropical wave in the central Atlantic remains well organized for a system so far out into the Atlantic for this time of year, but is struggling against southwesterly wind shear. Over the last few hours, there's been an attempted burst of convection on the western side of the system, but the trend over the past couple of days has been for the wind shear to make these bursts short-lived. As we told you last night, the system is simply running out of time to develop before it hits the very strong wind shear near the Windward Islands. The NHC is giving it just a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
Some of the tropical moisture associated with it could reach south Florida by Tuesday of next week; most of our models are suggesting this. As a result, I've increased the chance of rain in the Tuesday forecast. Scott & I will have more coming up this evening starting at 5. Hope you can join us!
Brian
Monday, June 14, 2010
Brian: Last few showers ending in south Hendry County..
Our sky has turned mostly clear across southwest Florida as this afternoon's/early evening's showers and storms come to an end. There is still a shower a bit east of Immokalee in south Hendry County but that, too, should be ending soon. Expect a mostly clear sky overnight with lows between 75 and 80 degrees.
Another very warm afternoon is in the forecast for tomorrow with highs in the mid 90's. Showers and storms will develop during the afternoon, mainly inland, and only drift around as the steering wind is quite light. Expect a few more storms and cooler temperatures later this week. New models are suggesting the best chance of rain will remain inland through the end of the week with a turn toward more coastal PM storms by the weekend. Either way, our ridge of high pressure will be breaking down some allowing for some relief from the high heat.
Brian
Brian: Tropical wave struggling against higher wind shear to its north..
The tropical wave we've been watching for the past several days looked like it was becoming more well developed earlier today. Now, in the face of increasing wind shear to its north and west, it is starting to look more ragged. The southwesterly wind shear is pushing a lot of the deep thunderstorm activity on the northern side of the system to the east of where the center of circulation is attempting to develop -- this is a problem as it keeps a lot of the moisture and heat away from the center.
The shear is forecast to increase over the next day or two as the wave moves to the west; the shear likely will be strong enough to shred the system as it approaches the Windward Islands. There is still an opportunity for this to become the season's first tropical depression, but as I mentioned earlier tonight it is running out of time as inevitably approaches the higher wind shear.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there are several waves coming off of the west coast of Africa over the next several days. This marks a very early start to the season in the central and eastern Atlantic and potentially could be yet another sign of the likely active season to come.
Brian
Brian: Showers ending through most areas except Collier County..
Our slow moving showers and storms this afternoon are gradually collapsing on themselves as cooler/more stable air is brought down to the surface from aloft. However, that's not before they've dumped some heavy rain on many spots. A new line of storms is developing in eastern Collier County from the east coast sea breeze, more on that on WINK in just a couple minutes.
Brian
Brian: Areas of heavy rain continue on either side of US-17 through DeSoto County...
A very slow moving thunderstorm continues to dump heavy rain over central and southern parts of DeSoto County. There are also a few showers and storms a little farther east into Highlands County, near Lake Placid. These will continue over the next few hours and then we should turn mostly clear overnight. We'll do it all over again tomorrow with scattered afternoon slow moving storms, mainly along and just east of I-75 by late in the day. I'll have more coming up on WINK in minutes.
Brian
Brian: Slow moving storms continue in inland Lee, Charlotte and DeSoto Counties
These storms have a history of 1-2" of rain across eastern Charlotte County and DeSoto County, including near Arcadia. They will continue to drift north-northwest over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, the coast is basically quiet and still hot with temperatures running well into the 90's.
Brian
Brian: Isolated to scattered storms drifting near I-75
Showers and storms are slowly moving along I-75 right now, where the afternoon Gulf breeze has set up. The steering wind is light from the southeast now, so these storms should gradually move back toward the coast as the evening progresses. Overnight, it'll be mostly clear and warm with lows again in the mid to upper 70's.
Expect another extra warm day tomorrow as a high pressure ridge remains in control -- highs will push into the mid 90's before showers and storms develop along the sea breeze during the afternoon. More showers and storms are expected later in the week as the high breaks down and some additional moisture swings in from the north.
I'll have the latest on your forecast and on the tropical wave in the central Atlantic coming up at 5. See you then!
Brian
Brian: Tropical wave becoming more well developed in central Atlantic...
I'll have a more full update on the tropical wave in the central Atlantic later today, but I wanted to post quickly to mention that it looks increasingly likely that we'll have our first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season later on today or tomorrow. This is an unusual area to look for development this time of year (see Lauren's post earlier today for a great write-up about that), but the conditions in the central and eastern Atlantic are much more like what we'd see during the peak of the hurricane season rather than during just the 3rd week!
Our season's first TD/possible tropical storm will likely be short-lived though as there is a strong area of vertical wind shear guarding the entry to the eastern Caribbean. All of our models at this point weaken whatever develops into an open wave as it approaches the Windward Islands later this week. Beyond that, if some of the wave can survive the eastern Caribbean in tact, it would enter an area more favorable for development again as it passes Puerto Rico, Hispanolia and Cuba -- as it moves toward the Bahamas. Any talk of that, though, is much too far out. In the meantime, don't be surprised if we have our first system of the season to track starting tonight at 5!
Brian
An Area of Disturbed Weather in the Tropics Breaking from June Trends
An area of disturbed weather in the eastern Atlantic has the potential to become the first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The National Hurricane Center is giving the tropical disturbance, referred to as invest 92L, a high probability of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
The month of June is climatologically the quietest month of hurricane season with only one tropical system developing every two years. 92L is already breaking June tropical trends as most early season systems form in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean where sea surface temperatures tend to be warmest this time of year, yet SST's in the Main Development Region for hurricanes which extends from eastern Atlantic near the west coast of Africa westward into western Caribbean were at record warm levels for the month of May.
With warm water beneath 92L and low wind shear above it, continued development is likely in the short term and the possibility of 92L strengthening into the first named storm of the season (which would be 'Alex') is real...if this occurs, it would be only the second time in history that a named storm developed in the Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the African coast during the month of June...Tropical Storm Ana in 1979 was the only system to do so.
As I stated, further development looks likely for 92L in the short term, but it's current movement to the west-northwest and a continued west-northwesterly path being projected by all forecast models will bring the area of disturbed weather into an environment of strong wind shear presently over the east-central Atlantic and eastern Caribbean thus in the long-term, continued strengthening and even survivability will be in question.
Of course we'll keep you up to date regarding any and all information pertaining to this area of disturbed weather on WINK News and winknews.com.
Have a great day,
Lauren
The month of June is climatologically the quietest month of hurricane season with only one tropical system developing every two years. 92L is already breaking June tropical trends as most early season systems form in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean where sea surface temperatures tend to be warmest this time of year, yet SST's in the Main Development Region for hurricanes which extends from eastern Atlantic near the west coast of Africa westward into western Caribbean were at record warm levels for the month of May.
With warm water beneath 92L and low wind shear above it, continued development is likely in the short term and the possibility of 92L strengthening into the first named storm of the season (which would be 'Alex') is real...if this occurs, it would be only the second time in history that a named storm developed in the Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the African coast during the month of June...Tropical Storm Ana in 1979 was the only system to do so.
As I stated, further development looks likely for 92L in the short term, but it's current movement to the west-northwest and a continued west-northwesterly path being projected by all forecast models will bring the area of disturbed weather into an environment of strong wind shear presently over the east-central Atlantic and eastern Caribbean thus in the long-term, continued strengthening and even survivability will be in question.
Of course we'll keep you up to date regarding any and all information pertaining to this area of disturbed weather on WINK News and winknews.com.
Have a great day,
Lauren
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Brian: First tropical depression of 2010 season set to form in central Atlantic..
Good evening! Above, I've included two satellite images -- the first a wide view of the Atlantic basin; I'm sure the large area of clouds in the center-right of the image grabs your attention right away. The second is an infrared satellite view zoomed in on the unusually strong (for this time of year) tropical wave in the central Atlantic. Satellite data continues to indicate a developing closed circulation (one of the necessary criteria for a wave to become a tropical cyclone) -- in fact, this morning's ASCAT satellite pass did show a closed circulation with peak wind in the vicinity of 20 knots. Since this morning's pass, the system has become better organized and appears to be only hours away from becoming the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season's first system.
June is usually a quiet month in the tropical Atlantic, with a named storm forming -- on average -- once every couple of years. So, to get a storm in June is not totally out of the ordinary. What is, though, is where this system is forming -- in an area that is usually hostile to tropical organization until we get into the "peak months" of August and September. Usually, wind shear is strong in this area of the Atlantic this time of year and the water is not quite yet warm enough -- this time around, water temperatures are running well above average throughout the Atlantic and only get warmer/deeper as this system moves west.
Over the short term, there really is nothing that will weaken this system and everything is set for what likely will become the first named storm of the season (Alex). Between it and the Windward Islands, about 1500 miles away, wind shear is low and the water is warm. Many of our models develop this wave into a tropical storm of moderate strength. As it moves toward the Caribbean, though, wind shear is expected to be rather strong and most of the models essentially tear the wave apart over the eastern Caribbean. It's much too early to get specific here, but at this point this seems to be a reasonable forecast.
Much more coming up on the tropics and your southwest Florida forecast tonight on 6 TV at 10 and WINK at 11. Hope you can join us!
Brian
Brian: Watching a well-developed early season tropical wave in central Atlantic..
There's a very strong (for this time of year and this far out in the Atlantic) tropical wave located around 1500 miles east of the Windward Islands (the islands in the easternmost part of the Caribbean). This is usually an area we look toward for tropical development in late July and later.. not this early in the season. However, as I blogged about in this space a few days ago, the water is unusually warm in this part of the Atlantic and, for the time being, the wave is located south of an area of strong wind shear. The National Hurricane Center is giving the wave a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
If it does, what's the wave's future? It should continue to track westward but eventually run into higher wind shear as it approaches the Windward Islands and the northern part of South America. I'll have much more on this wave coming up later on this evening.
Brian
Brian: Heavy rain continues across most of the northern Cape.. Port Charlotte.. North Port
A strong thunderstorm is over north Cape Coral now and is pushing northwest, but very slowly. These storms have had a history of very heavy rain (perhaps 2-3" of rain over parts of the Cape in the last hour). There is also still heavy rain falling across the eastern side of Charlotte Harbor up through the western half of Port Charlotte and into North Port.
A few other isolated storms are located inland, notably between Lake Placid and Arcadia. These, too, will be moving to the west with time.
Brian
Brian: Hail being reported in some of the storms now in Lee County...
Just a quick update before I head into the studio for tonight's newscasts -- there is actually some hail in these storms right now (very small pea sized hail). It's making a bit of a racket outside my window right now, and possibly yours as well. These storms continue to push toward the beaches and we should see a drying trend along the coast as we move toward sunset. More updates coming here and on WINK later tonight. See you then!
Brian
Brian: Line of storms near I-75 from Collier north to Lee... moving toward beaches...
A line of storms has developed along the afternoon Gulf breeze front and is headed toward the northeast right now. Most of these storms are lined up along I-75 from Collier County north into Charlotte County. Expect them to move slowly over the next hour or two with the potential for some very heavy rain and frequent lightning. Doppler radar is estimating anywhere from 1-3" of rain has fallen in some of the heavier storms.
Elsewhere, there are a few isolated storms farther east across inland southwest Florida. These, too, should move to the northeast over the next couple of hours. The most concentrated activity will be along the coast, though, between now and around 6 pm.
Brian
Friday, June 11, 2010
Scattered Rain
It's still a little too dry aloft for an active thunderstorm pattern, but there will be a couple roaming the area today. Tomorrow will feature a dry morning, then a hot afternoon with a few showers and storms. - Jim
Feelin' Hot!
Another HOT day in store with highs in the low 90s along the coast to mid 90s inland! Factor in that humidity and our heat index, or feels like temperature, will push into the low to mid 100's and possibly to near 110 degrees across inland Collier County!
Expect a partly cloudy sky with just a few storms possible near to the coast for the second half of the afternoon as high pressure in control will once again suppress thunderstorm activity. The heat sticks with us into the weekend, but with storm chances increasing, we'll have some rain finally to help cool us off!
For more details on your weekend forecast, tune into WINK News Now at 5pm with Chief Meteorologist Jim Farrell.
Stay cool,
Lauren
Expect a partly cloudy sky with just a few storms possible near to the coast for the second half of the afternoon as high pressure in control will once again suppress thunderstorm activity. The heat sticks with us into the weekend, but with storm chances increasing, we'll have some rain finally to help cool us off!
For more details on your weekend forecast, tune into WINK News Now at 5pm with Chief Meteorologist Jim Farrell.
Stay cool,
Lauren
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Still Hot and Dry
I expect a hot afternoon and a warm, mainly dry evening. The air is just too dry to allow numerous thunderstorms, so we remain fairly dry through tomorrow. - Jim
June Tropical Trends
Climatologically, June is the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season with 1 tropical system forming every 2 years on average. But there are always exceptions to the rule...since 1851, 81 tropical storms and hurricanes have formed in the month of June.
Since 1870, three major hurricanes have formed during the month. One of these hurricanes made landfall in the US, Hurricane Audrey in 1957, a Category 4 storm which caused major destruction across parts of Eastern Texas and Western Louisiana.
June tropical systems tend to form in our neighbor, the Gulf of Mexico and in the Western Caribbean where seas surface temperatures are warmest this time of year, and typically form when a cold front moves off the US coast and stalls out, serving as the focal point for tropical system development.
On this day in June the Tropics are quiet.
Have a great day,
Lauren
Since 1870, three major hurricanes have formed during the month. One of these hurricanes made landfall in the US, Hurricane Audrey in 1957, a Category 4 storm which caused major destruction across parts of Eastern Texas and Western Louisiana.
June tropical systems tend to form in our neighbor, the Gulf of Mexico and in the Western Caribbean where seas surface temperatures are warmest this time of year, and typically form when a cold front moves off the US coast and stalls out, serving as the focal point for tropical system development.
On this day in June the Tropics are quiet.
Have a great day,
Lauren
Brian: Eastward Movement of Oil Slick Has Slowed/Stopped
Good morning! Just reading the latest update from NOAA on the oil slick, they are finally indicating what we have all week long: that the southwesterly breezes that pushed the oil toward the western Panhandle over the last few days have been replaced by easterlies/southeasterlies. This, coupled with westward moving water currents, has effectively stopped the eastward spread of the oil slick -- saving, for the moment, beaches in the central and eastern Panhandle. You can read the full NOAA update here.
Easterly and southeasterly wind is expected to continue over the rest of the week, pushing the oil slick away from Florida and toward Lousiana and Mississippi. As a front moves into the southeast early next week, though, the wind could again turn in from the west or west-southwest, threatening Florida beaches once again. We'll keep you updated.
Brian
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