The top image I've attached is something we call tropical cyclone heat potential. Basically, the warmer colors show areas that are more conducive for tropical cyclone maintenance and strengthening. Essentially, TCHP is a measure of not only how warm the water is, but also how deep (the depth of 80+ degree water is important). Prior to landfall on the Yucatan, Alex was able to take advantage of some fairly deep, warm water and strengthened quickly prior to landfall. The second image is one of TCHP in the Gulf of Mexico. Notice how it's fairly low in the southern Gulf (blue colors just west of the Yucatan). Now, this isn't because the water isn't warm here -- it is -- but it's also fairly shallow. This means there's not a large depth of warm water for Alex to work with. Farther north though, off the NE Mexico/Texas coast, notice how TCHP increases steadily to levels similar to what it encountered in the western Caribbean.
The path Alex takes toward the WNW will be key in determining just how strong the storm can get prior to its next, and final, landfall. Right now, most of our hurricane models take it to a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane strength at landfall. These models, as you can see in the third image, are generally taking Alex to the WNW toward the upper Mexican coast. Right now, this path seems to be a reasonable forecast as Alex likely will remain too far south to be significantly affected by a dip in the jet stream expected in the eastern United States over the next few days. A few of our other models, though, do want Alex to be tugged farther north toward the upper Texas coast or even Louisiana. Right now, we don't expect that to happen given how far south Alex is now.
Will Alex have any affect on southwest Florida? Indirectly, yes. It already has -- we've had a few more storms around the past couple of days and I expect moisture to remain on the higher side over the next few days. As we've been saying, mid to late week an unusually strong front is expected to move toward the southeast. This front may act to pull some of the moisture from Alex toward central and south Florida -- so right now we expect the chance of morning and afternoon storms toward week's end. Much depends on the exact track Alex takes, but right now expect more storms and more rain later this week.
Anything else in the tropics? One area to watch later this week will be off the southeast coast as that unusually strong front for this time of year heads toward the south. Many of our models are trying to spin up a tropical or extratropical system along this front and take it to the northeast toward Bermuda. This is a pattern that can allow for these "homegrown" storms to develop. It won't have any impact on us if it happens, but it is possible something could spin up along the front off the east coast later this week. Elsewhere, none of our reliable models are developing anything in the tropics over the next 5 days.
Brian
