Most of our forecast models continued the shift southwest with the track of Alex over the coming days, taking it across the Yucatan and eventually toward the upper Mexican coast or Texas as potentially a strong tropical storm. As we've been stressing though, we won't know a whole lot until we see what kind of shape Alex is in after crossing the Yucatan, which will act to disrupt its circulation significantly. We're also watching a developing trough of low pressure in the east that should work to weaken and split the high located over the southeast and south-central part of the country -- the same high that will keep Alex well south of us this weekend.
We do not anticipate any kind of hard turn toward the north and northeast back toward south Florida. However, depending on the strength of the oncoming eastern United States trough, we may see a significant batch of moisture head toward the area along a developing front mid to late next week. There are still a lot of questions here, so stay tuned!
Either way, expect the chances of rain to remain on the lower end this weekend in southwest Florida as the tropical moisture is kept to our south. It'll be continued hot with highs still in the mid 90's each afternoon.
Have a great weekend!
Brian
