What's Probable

Regarding a media report of beach erosion in Alabama (canceling a Jimmy Buffet concert).....

I see an onshore wind on the AL coast at 10-20 kts.  Here are the model wind speeds at Mobile for the next 72 hours.

06 03 04 05 07 12 14 16 11 10 09 06 07 10 10 10 06 06 05 05 09 (mph)

My analysis indicates a minor, not major effect as Alex strengthens. Alex is TOO FAR WEST of the spill to cause beach erosion in Alabama or Florida.

Swells will make offshore oil cleanup operations difficult the and the swells will give the usually calm gulf a wave or two, but it will not be major. Of course some in the media will hype the worst case and then some to get ratings.  I'll be surprised if there is any significant erosion.

Did you see the Gulf behind CBS live shots at 630 on the Evening News with Katie Couric...as they were talking about rough seas?  Yawn.

Yes, there will be some oil pushed ashore by a southeast breeze, but the main problem continues to be new oil that is still leaking.

Beach erosion in Alabama from a hurricane hitting Mexico, funny!  Keep 'em coming.- Jim