Brian: Tropical wave active, but still disorganized in northern Caribbean

A broad tropical wave continues to bring heavy rain to much of the north central Caribbean. Currently, the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave a medium (40%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours. Right now, the wave is still being impacted by some stronger wind shear on its north side (around 20 knots), but shear is expected to weaken over the coming couple of days. It continues to be guided westward slowly but a strong ridge of high pressure to the north (the same area of high pressure that's been giving us the relatively drier and hot days here in southwest Florida).

Over the next couple of days, this tropical moisture is expected to move west-northwestward toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Just one of our forecast models (the GFS) brings any significant increase in tropical moisture to the area over the weekend; right now, I'm leaning toward a continued dry forecast for southwest Florida this weekend. As we head into the end of the weekend and early next week, the strong area of high pressure is expected to weaken some, perhaps enough to bring tropical moisture and/or a developed system toward the western or central Gulf of Mexico. Right now, even the strongest of tropical forecast models bring this wave to no more than tropical storm strength but, in all honesty, we won't really know until it actually develops into an organized area of low pressure -- which as not happened yet.

Scott and I will have the latest on your forecast and on the wave coming up tonight at 5!

Brian