Brian: TD Alex approaching TS strength once again.. back over water now..

Alex is now back over water in the Bay of Campeche (southern Gulf of Mexico). There is a Hurricane Hunter mission ongoing now and they are finding wind right now that is close to if not just above tropical storm force. I expect Alex to regain tropical storm status overnight. The restrengthening of Alex may be slowed somewhat for a while over the southern Gulf where the heat content of the water is not as high as it is farther north. Later, though, as the storm begins to move more toward the north, it will enter more favorable Gulf waters for further development -- not to mention that the upper level wind overtop of Alex will remain light. It is likely Alex will become the first hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic season by Tuesday. 

Track forecasts remain tricky now but new upper air data suggests the upper level high pressure over the southeast and south-central part of the country is indeed weakening. This should allow Alex to be drawn farther to the north. The range of possibilities in the models now are from near Louisiana to the central Mexican Gulf coast! So, there's still quite a bit of spread in the track models. We'll have a better idea in the morning as a new batch of forecast models comes in and new upper air data also is available. The weaker that high to the north gets, though, the farther north Alex can come. This storm bears quite a bit of watching for the Texas coast!

I'll have the latest on Alex and how it may impact our weather in southwest Florida later this week starting in the morning at 5. See you then!

Brian