Good morning! The Hurricane Hunters have been flying through Alex overnight and have found maximum sustained wind now up to 70 mph; Tropical Storm Alex is nearing hurricane strength this morning. On the latest advisory, the pressure is a fairly low 984 mb but Alex is a pretty large storm which is likely offsetting the low central pressure (in other words, likely why the wind is not stronger.. yet). Also, what happens in a tropical cyclone is the pressure falls first and then the wind responds in kind by falling. As early as late this morning though, Alex likely will be our season's first hurricane.
Our forecast models continue to hone in on a landfall near northern Mexico/south Texas Wednesday night or Thursday. Prior to landfall, a long period of onshore wind is expected in south Texas likely leading to significant flooding (not to mention the long duration of very heavy rain expected as Alex makes landfall). One of the questions we've been commonly getting is what effect Alex will have on the Gulf oil spill. Fortunately, we don't think a significant one. Alex will likely send 2-4 foot swells (perhaps higher depending on just how strong alex gets) toward the oil slick and this may send more oil toward the Gulf coast over the coming days. But this will be far less destructive than a direct track of Alex across the slick, which will not happen.
Right now, it looks like much of the moisture from Alex will miss southwest Florida -- even though a front is coming into the southeast later this week. In the end, Alex likely will just be too far west to allow for significant moisture to push into the area. That said, for other reasons, we expect unsettled weather over the holiday weekend. I'll have more on that later.
Brian
