Good morning! You might be caught in a bit of a head scratcher this morning: the pressure is falling in Alex and the satellite presentation of Alex is even more impressive. However, the wind remains unchanged on the latest advisory: 80 mph as of 8 AM. What gives? In less than 12 hours, the pressure has fallen 14 mb -- we call this "bombing out" (a pressure fall of 12 mb/12 hours or 24 mb/24 hours). Often times, though, it takes time for the wind to respond in kind; that said, with a large pressure gradient (or difference in pressure) across the Gulf of Mexico from the center of the storm to the outermost edges of the storm, the wind inevitably is going to have to increase near the center of Alex. With light wind shear above and a supply of warm, deep water below, Alex is in a perfect location for continued intensification. Do not be surprised at all if this is a Category 2 hurricane at landfall late tonight or early tomorrow morning.
The forward motion of the storm is quite slow and is expected to remain slow over the next few days. This will be quite a rain maker across south Texas and north Mexico with 8-12"+ of rain possible. There will also be a prolonged period of onshore wind in south Texas so, despite the center making landfall south of the border, there will be flooding in storm surge along the Texas coast.
The remains of Alex should eventually pull toward the central part of the country with the next trough of low pressure. We no longer expect any of the moisture from Alex to directly affect southwest Florida.
Anything else brewing in the Atlantic? Not over the next couple of days. There's a wave coming off the west coast of Africa and another in the central Atlantic. A couple of our forecast models do take a system toward the northern Caribbean/Bahamas in about 7 days, but that's pretty far off. There is also the possibility of some development as an unusually strong front pushes toward the southeast over the next few days; a few of our models highlight the southeast coast as a place worth watching for development (I mentioned this in a blog post a few days ago). We'll keep an eye on it.
Brian
