The latest forecast models are just coming in and they continue to say that the Atlantic tropical wave is worth watching as it moves across the islands of the northern Caribbean and heads toward the Bahamas early next week. At this point, even the most robust of models take it up to only tropical depression strength as it approaches the Bahamas early next week, so development continues to be unlikely. It will be interacting with some rugged terrain in the northern Caribbean and traveling through high wind shear through much of the next few days; that said, the fact that the convection (thunderstorms) is still so active is a sign that this wave is still worth watching.
The wind shear is pushing all of those storms away from the center of circulation, so development anytime soon is just not possible. At the very least, expect an increase in moisture around southwest Florida by the middle of next week. I'll have the latest forecast for you coming up at 11 on WINK. Hope you can join us!
Brian
