I'm just starting to get a look at some of the latest ship and buoy observations in the Caribbean and they're pointing toward the development of (for the first time) a broad circulation with tropical wave 93L. The lowest pressure I can find is now down to 1007 mb near the deepest thunderstorm activity; elsewhere in the area, pressures are more on the order of 1010 mb. So, there is a low center apparent tonight.
All of the new forecast guidance has this wave passing well south of southwest Florida as we've been telling you, eventually toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Even the strongest of forecast model guidance only takes this to a modest tropical storm, as it interacts with land on the Yucatan and fights some enhanced wind shear over the southern Gulf of Mexico. This is all very questionable though until we actually get a storm to develop.
Brian
