A warm night is in store for southwest Florida, owing to this afternoon's relatively dry weather across the area. Expect lows to average in the mid to upper 70's most spots, with some locations remaining in the lower 80's overnight. Even drier air is expected to be overhead tomorrow and Thursday, with afternoon highs pressing into the mid to upper 90's across much of the area. Just a few isolated storms are expected each day.
Tropical moisture will try to take a swipe at the area from the south by Saturday and Sunday, although high pressure may end up winning out, blocking most of this to the south. Either way, expect an increase in the rain chance as we head toward the weekend with mainly afternoon storms.
By early next week, a lot of tropical moisture is expected to be in the central or western Gulf of Mexico. I've attached the forecast from the European forecast model for Tuesday morning, one of the many models that suggest the first tropical cyclone of the season could be located in the central or western Gulf. Again, because of high pressure blocking the eastern Gulf, we do not expect a system - developed or otherwise - to affect south Florida. We may see some moisture from whatever develops, though, get pulled eastward as a trough of low pressure builds over the east coast. We have many days to watch things unfold though!
Brian
