Inland Rain

A few, mainly inland showers and thunderstorms this evening and tomorrow.  Tropical moisture from former Pacific Tropical Storm Agatha may give us a better chance of rain by Thursday. - Jim

Brian: Oil could move toward coastal MS and LA later this week...

Good morning! Wanted to post a quick update with the latest on the Gulf oil slick -- and it could be bad news later this week for coastal Mississippi and Alabama as a persistent southwesterly wind could push more of the oil slick toward the barrier islands of these states. Thus far, it's been Louisiana that has gotten the brunt of the oil slick approaching its beaches and marshes because of easterly and southeasterly flow. Later this week, though, as a trough of low pressure pushes into the Gulf of Mexico, the flow will turn out of the southwest threatening the coasts of MS and AL.

 

This link, courtesy NOAA, has the latest trajectory forecasts for the next 72 hours. Notice how the oil is forecast to get closer to the Gulf coast over the next few days.

 

Meantime, BP's efforts to cap the well continue. The latest procedure involves cutting the broken pipe and placing a new blowout preventer on top of it. It is possible, though, that this could actually briefly increase the flow of oil from the sea floor, perhaps by 20%. The top kill effort, attempted last week and this weekend -- essentially stuffing the broken pipe with drilling mud and other debris, failed -- leading to this latest attempt. Ultimately, the pressure below the debris filling the pipe had to drop to zero in order to cement shut the pipe, this did not happen, unfortunately.

 

As it relates to SWFL, the oil spill continues to be of no direct concern or worry. If the oil ever affects us, it will be many weeks if not months away. This is further assured by signs that the Gulf loop current is currently cutting off -- spinning off a westward moving vortex. This has contorted the flow of the loop current and it will remain highly unstable for some period of time.

 

Brian

Brian: Remnants of Pacific Storm Agatha Could Affect SWFL Later This Week

Good morning! I'm wathcing the remnants of the first eastern Pacific Storm of the season, Agatha, this morning. The remnants of Agatha are currently spread out over a broad region from the western Caribbean to the west coast of Central America. There's been some devastating flooding across parts of Central America the past few days and today promises to be another day of very heavy rain for Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Belize. That heavy rain will also move into areas of southeastern Mexico as the remnants of Agatha move back over the Caribbean.

 

There will only be a very minimal window for the remnants of Agatha to reorganize in the Caribbean. This morning, showers and storms are flaring again off the coast of Belize in an area where conditions are favorable for development (the top image shows the very weak wind shear -- darker blues/greens -- over the area where the remnants of the storm are now; just north of here, though, over the Yucatan east to Cuba and the Florida Straits, wind shear is very strong). With hostile upper level wind just north of where the storms are now, development of this system is unlikely in the Caribbean.

 

The second image I've included is the low-level steering level pattern, which favors the low-level moisture of ex-Agatha moving into the eastern Gulf and toward south Florida. The deepest moisture likely will be guided toward the east coast, but I think enough moves toward SWFL to increase our chance of rain in reverse west-to-east steering on Wednesday and Thursday. This means we could see some rain earlier in the day along the coast with the highest chances of rain moving inland with time. Of course, all bets are off if a more developed wave moves out of the Caribbean but this is exceedingly unlikely with the strong wind shear guarding the "entry gate" into the Gulf.

 

You can actually already see the tropical moisture pushing into the Yucatan Channel on this image, something known as Tropical Precipitable Water. The deep moisture is shaded in reds and oranges and you can see it starting to bubble up toward Cancun and eventually into the Gulf.

 

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, things are pretty quiet although conditions are favorable for development across a good chunk of the basin -- surprising for so early in the season. Some models hint at a possible area to watch over the far southern Caribbean off the South American coast later this week and into the weekend, but any development there would stay way to the south. Elsewhere, none of our models indicate any other areas to watch over the next 5-7 days.

 

Brian

Brian: Showers weakening as they approach coastal Collier County

I'm still watching a couple of light showers south of Marco Island this morning. These are moving toward the north-northwest (a sign of a change in the steering level wind from yesterday; this implies showers and storms will be able to move a bit closer to the coast this afternoon) but are weakening as they approach Marco. In south Collier, you'll start your day with a few clouds but I think the showers will stay offshore for the most part. Radar updates continue on WINK, plus the latest on your Memorial Day afternoon forecast! See you in a few minutes on WINK.

 

Brian

Brian: A few storms get closer to the coast today, highs in the low 90's..

Good morning! Memorial Day is starting mostly clear throughout southwest Florida, although there are a few showers south of Marco Island and Everglades City this morning in Florida Bay. There is the slightest chance that one or two of these could make their way onshore toward the 10,000 Islands area near sunrise, but I think we'll just end up with a few clouds there this morning. Otherwise, for this afternoon the steering currents remain very light and essentially parallel to the coast; this means the best chance of rain will lie along the afternoon Gulf breeze mainly along and just east of I-75. I do think a few storms could drift closer to the beaches though by 5 PM, so it may not be quite as sunny and dry at the coast today as it was over the weekend.

 

The chance of rain will increase tomorrow inland and south as tropical moisture from the remnants of eastern Pacific storm Agatha make their way into the eastern Gulf. More on this later. First, today's forecast:

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 90
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 91
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 92
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 90
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 89
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 90
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 89
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 90

Have a great Memorial Day!

 

Brian

Lauren: Memorial Day Forecast

Mostly sunny to start our Memorial Day with the exception of patchy fog early. Another great beach day in store for the holiday with mostly sunny conditions and a gulf breeze kicking up and cooling us of a bit from highs near 90. A few showers or an isolated thunderstorm possible along the coast, but likely not until the evening hours as the sea breeze retreats.

That sea breeze though for folks inland will induce the development of scattered storms once again for tomorrow afternoon though, with drier air pushing into the upper atmosphere, fewer storms may be expected than experienced in the interior through the weekend thus far. Look for toasty highs inland in the low 90s.

Have a great Memorial Day,
Lauren

Scattered Storms for Sunday

We'll start our Sunday under a mostly clear sky with the exception of patchy areas of fog especially inland. Expect a mix of sun and clouds for tomorrow afternoon with another round of sea-breeze induced showers and thunderstorms set to develop. The storm activity will fire off earlier in the afternoon for inland areas with scattered thunderstorms affecting coastal communities during the second half of the day into the evening hours. High temperatures will reach to average levels with upper 80s along the coast to low 90s inland. For more details on your Sunday and your Memorial Day forecast tune into WINK News coming up at 11pm!

Have a great night!
Lauren

Scott: A few clouds this evening and may even see a storm pop up! Join me at 5 for radar updates and the forecast,

Upper low still spinning off the coast of the Carolinas. The steering currents are from the north for the next 24 hours. These means any storms that pop up will move from the north to the south. We have scattered storms in the forecast for Friday. Saturday, the steering wind becomes very light, so we may see a few slow moving storms in the afternoon and evening. Slightly drier weather by Memorial day Monday! Details on at 5!

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Brian: New Undersea Oil Plumes Detected

Researchers have detected a new, giant oil plume below the sea surface in the Gulf of Mexico. It's these undersea plumes, and the amount and concentration of oil beyond the sight of our satellites and surface instruments, that concerns many. The plume is believed to be located about 22 miles long, stretching from the site of the broken oil well toward the mouth of Mobile Bay. We'll have more for this for you on WINK News later today.

 

Brian

Brian: NOAA Predicts Extreme Active Hurricane Season..

The numbers are in from NOAA and, for the reasons outlined earlier, they've made a forecast for an active to extremely active season. Here are the numbers:

 

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Named Storms: 14 - 23 (average: 11)

Hurricanes: 8 - 4 (average: 6)

Major Hurricanes: 3 - 7 (average: 2)

 

Another reason for the expected above average season I had neglected to mention earlier: the multi-decadal cycle. Tropical activity in the Atlantic generally has gone through alternating 15-20 year periods of above/below average activity. Since the mid 90's, we're generally in an above average spike.

 

Much more coming up on 6 TV in just 2 minutes. See you there!

 

Brian

Brian: NOAA Hurricane Season Forecast to be Released This Morning

NOAA will release its forecast for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season during a press conference this morning at 10 AM. We will have it for you coming up on WINK News Now on 6 TV at 11 AM; I hope you can join us. Most likely, the forecast will be for a very active hurricane season, quite possibly more active than the latest Colorado State forecast of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major (Category 3-5) hurricanes. Why are we expecting an active season?

 

There are multiple reasons but one of the biggest is the rapid retreat of the warm phase of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) observed over the last several weeks. The top animation is the sea surface temperature anomaly across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Notice the rapid transition from bright red colors in the center part of the animation (indicating sea surface temps 2-3C above average) to light blue colors (indicating slightly below average sea surface temperatures)! Most of the equatorial Pacific now features either average or below average SST's -- indicating a chance we could be headed for a La Nina by the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season. This is important because La Nina's are associated with much weaker wind shear in the Atlantic basin while El Nino's feature stronger shear (like we saw during the 2009 season).

 

Couple that with the second image I have posted, the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (essentially, the depth of warm water in the tropical Atlantic), and the Atlantic is ripe for a big season. TCHP is running very high across the Caribbean and much of the lower latitudes in the Atlantic for this time of year, definitely a major concern as we approach the heart of the season (remember, deep/warm water is the fuel source for hurricanes).

 

What about the Atlantic low?

 

In Image 3, I have posted the water vapor view from this morning of the Atlantic low, which is now starting to pull away from the east coast. The atmosphere around it has moistened substantially versus the past few days and there are now disorganized clusters of thunderstorms encircling the center of circulation. The wind shear is light and the water, for a while longer, is warm enough to support subtropical development. In fact, some satellite measurements yesterday indicated that the storm had indeed gone warm core (warmer temps at the center of the low rather than outside the low; a cold season low is "cold core," colder near the center of the low) -- this suggests that loosely we could have called it a subtropical storm yesterday based on the temperature pattern and the gale force wind surrounding it. The NHC didn't so, officially, it goes down as a regular area of low pressure.

 

Is there anything else worth watching in the tropics?

 

The other area worth watching is in the far eastern Pacific, a system (Image 4), the NHC is giving a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next day or two. It's located in an area of fairly weak wind shear and warm enough water -- however, that water off the west coast of Central America is not particularly deep (thus that Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential map shows cooler colors there compared to the Caribbean). We'll have to wait and see on development here but some of the models do carry some energy from this into the western Caribbean into an area that might be favorable for development early next week. Anything that were to get into the western Caribbean though would likely be carried well south of the Florida Straits with a strong subtropical jetstream.

 

I'll update this blog with the NOAA forecast numbers coming up later this morning!

 

Brian

Brian: Isolated inland storms today, highs near 90.. more storms this weekend

Good morning! A similar set up for this afternoon with Atlantic low pressure spinning in some drier air from the north this afternoon. There will still be thunderstorms today, but just isolated rain chances mainly east of I-75. In fact, along the coast, it should finish mostly sunny this afternoon with a nice, steady breeze off of the Gulf of Mexico! We'll follow today up with isolated thunderstorms, mainly inland, again tomorrow.

 

For the holiday weekend, though, an upper level area of low pressure will form over the southeast. This will increase our chance of showers and storms for both Saturday and Sunday. For Saturday, the steering level wind should be from the southwest, meaning the best chance of showers and storms in the afternoon will be inland. On Sunday, though, that steering wind will be very light.. so a good chance of showes and storms is in the forecast both inland and at the coast. By Memorial Day, that upper level low should weaken and move away leading to lower rain chances for the holiday itself. It's not a wash out this weekend, but you will want to watch the sky closely!

 

Here is today's forecast:

Naples  Partly Cloudy; High 87
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy; High 89
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy; High 90
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy; High 88
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy; High 87
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 88
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 87
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 87

 

See you on WINK in just minutes!

 

Brian

Brian: Dry air preventing subtropical system from developing..

Good morning! I wanted to update you quickly on the progress of the Atlantic low I've been watching -- first in the forecast models last week and now on the satellites/radars in real time. The low hasn't changed all that much over the past couple of days except that it has moved a bit to the west and is now making its closed approach to southwest Florida -- a few hundred miles away! Wind shear has eased off to a very favorable sub-10 knots; however, the system is still surrounded by a lot of dry air and this is working against the formation of thunderstorms near the center of circulation. The air isn't as dry as it was a few days ago, but it's dry enough to really be precluding any development.

 

I've been saying all morning we're in the "now or never" stage for this storm: what that means is that if this is going to develop into a subtropical storm, it's going to have to happen in the next 24 hours or so before it gets kicked to the northeast and moves toward more hostile upper level wind/cooler waters. It still looks very unlikely that there will be development, but the water is fairly warm where the system is drifting and if the atmosphere can moisten enough, it might have a shot. Like I mentioned though, development does seem unlikely now. Either way, the effects on our weather are the same -- isolated mainly inland storms the next 3 days.

 

Elsewhere, more tropical energy is streaming out of the central Caribbean across eastern Cuba and Hispanolia, ultimately out into the Atlantic. Upper level wind is very strong here and not conducive to tropical development. Farther west, there is a large area of showers and storms located in the eastern Pacific along the coast of Central America. The NHC is giving this a 50% chance of developing into the season's first storm in the Pacific. Many of our forecast models bring some of this energy across Central America and into the western Caribbean late this weekend. We'll be watching that for you but it looks like whatever might develop would also be affected by the strong wind shear located near and just south of Florida.

 

Brian

Brian: Atlantis clearing for landing at 8:48 am at KSC.. sonic boom in parts of SWFL

Space Shuttle Atlantis has been cleared for its final de-orbit burn on the way to a landing at Kennedy Space Center at 8:48 am. The landing track will take Atlantis east of Everglades City over south Collier County, over Clewiston and Lake Okeechobee en route to the landing site. This means that at about 8:44-8:45 am, we should be able to hear the sonic boom over parts of southwest Florida, especially south and inland. We'll have the landing of Atlantis live on 6 TV and WINK!

 

Brian

Brian: Partly cloudy today, isolated mainly inland storms

Good morning! Drier air is pushing back into southwest Florida this morning as the Atlantic low continues to spin NE of Jacksonville. Expect isolated inland storms this afternoon with highs in the upper 80's along the coast and low 90's elsewhere. The breeze starts light this morning but, like it has all week, will pick up from the northwest this afternoon at 10-15 mph.

 

Thursday and Friday are essentially carbon copies of today but there will be changes as the holiday weekend approaches. An upper level disturbance will dive out of the Ohio Valley and link with some energy left behind by the Atlantic low as it departs. This will result in an upper level area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf Saturday through Memorial Day with scattered mainly afternoon storms each day. It won't be a wash out, but you will need the umbrella from time to time this weekend!

 

Today's forecast:

 

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 88
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 90
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 90
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 89
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 88
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 89
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 88
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 88

 

Brian

Brian: Scattered storms this afternoon... more inland

Today's forecast is still on track for some storms developing later this afternoon along the Gulf breeze and then pushing inland later today. The wind is light for now but will pick up later today from the NE, and then from the NW, at 10 - 15 mph. Chance of rain drops tomorrow through Wednesday and the Memorial Day weekend is a bit unsettled as an upper level area of low pressure moves toward the southeast. More on all of this coming up on 6 TV in minutes.

 

I'm also watching a cluster of thunderstorms that's starting to flare up right along the low level circulation of the big Atlantic low. It's still fighting dry air (but not as dry as yesterday) and some wind shear, but there's still a chance this could become a subtropical storm over the next 24-36 hours as it drifts WNW.

 

Brian

Brian: Atlantic Low Still Just A Low

Good morning! The Atlantic low we talked about in depth yesterday remains a regular, extra-tropical area of low pressure this morning centered well off the east coast between the Bahamas and Bermuda. There is a clear low level center, but it's void of any deep convection (thunderstorms), surrounded by dry air, and being impacted by southwesterly wind shear that is still in the ballpark of 20 knots. This is not a recipe for a developing tropical or sub-tropical storm. That said, there remains a window of possible development as this system moves back to the west into an area of favorable, weaker wind shear and the atmosphere slowly moistens. The moistening though is not happening nearly fast enough according to the latest water vapor imagery.

 

I should point out, though, that last night's most recent satellite pass (Image 1) from last night did find 30-40 knot wind on the northern side of the center of circulation. So, if it were ever able to get its act together near the center, the transition could still happen to sub-tropical. In terms of weather effects, though, whether it's sub-tropical or extratropical -- it will bring strong wind and high seas of the western Atlantic. For us? Once we get through today's rain chance, drier weather will persist Wednesday through Friday.

 

Elsewhere, the possible central Caribbean disturbance we talked about last week will be there, but it should quickly get pulled northeast and out to sea with the departing Atlantic low later this week. We may have something to watch in the western Caribbean, near Central America, by late weekend or early next weekend as, potentially, the first storm of the season develops in the Eastern Pacific and then crosses into the Caribbean. More on that later in the week.

 

Brian

Brian: A few afternoon storms moving inland, highs in the upper 80's & low 90s..

Good morning! Morning sunshine will give way to increasing clouds along the Gulf breeze this afternoon. Most of our models are pointing toward an increased chance of rain for today and, while I generally agree (upper level disturbance moving through, more moisture pushing south across the peninsula), I'm not entirely convinced the models aren't somewhat overdone. That said, I have increased the chance of rain today into the scattered rain, with the best chance of rain lining up along the Gulf breeze near US-41 and I-75, then pushing east toward inland sections -- guided there by the flow around the western Atlantic low (still non-tropical, by the way).

 

For tomorrow, drier air moves back into the picture as the Atlantic low drifts a little closer to the Carolinas. Expect just isolated storms, mainly east of I-75, a pattern that should continue through the end of the week. For the big Memorial Day weekend, the models are split: the European and Canadian models leave an upper level disturbance over the southeast and scattered afternoon showers and storms will the American model goes for drier weather. Right now, I'm leaning toward at least a few thunderstorms each afternoon over the holiday weekend, but it won't be a washout!

 

Here is today's forecast:

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 90
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 91
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 91
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 90
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 89
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 89
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 88
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered PM Storms; High 88

Brian

Brian: Continuing to watch Atlantic low for slow development...

Just a fast update on the potential for subtropical development in the Atlantic: wind shear continues to ease off over the western Atlantic and there are signs that the surface low is starting to form underneath the deepest thunderstorm activity. Additionally, the drier air is slowly being replaced by more humid air from the west -- remember, dry air kills the possibility of tropical or subtropical development (evaporation = cooler air = stronger downdrafts = collapse of t-storms). Until the dry air abates more and the wind shear relaxes more, this will remain an extratropical area of low pressure. The environment is expected to become more favorable for development as the low pushes toward the NW over the next day or two, with the possibility of a subtropical (named) storm developing. This will remain well east (and north) of SWFL, keeping us on the drier side of things, as mentioned over the past few days!

 

I'm also watching the possibility of some development in the Caribbean (western or central) during the next 7-10 days. I'll have more on this later this week. First things first, though, we focus on the Atlantic low!

 

Brian

Brian: Mainly dry today, highs in the lower 90's.. rain chance increases tomorrow

Temperatures are climbing through the mid 80's now and moving into the upper 80's for parts of the southwest Florida. As this happens though, drier air is being mixed down from aloft (as a deeper part of the atmosphere warms) and dewpoint temps are falling into the 60's. So, while it'll be hot this afternoon, it shouldn't feel too oppressive with that drier air taking hold. The breeze will also pick up this afternoon from the northeast, and eventually northwest, at 10-15 mph. The newest models continue to point toward a mainly dry afternoon, although I can't rule out just a couple of isolated showers or storms this afternoon. Generally, though, dry air has a firm grip on our weather as the Atlantic low continues to spin between the Bahamas and Bermuda.

 

There will be a few more showers and storms around tomorrow, especially along the coast, before the best chance of rain shifts inland starting on Wednesday afternoon. More on your forecast coming up on WINK-TV in just minutes!

 

Brian

Brian: A Pre-Season Named Storm in the Atlantic?

Good morning! Not much has changed since my post last week about the possibility of a subtropical storm developing in the western Atlantic north of the Bahamas. The system still has not developed, yet is showing some signs it is undergoing some changes this morning. Remember, a subtropical storm is one that is like a tropical strom near the surface but a regular, cold-season area of low pressure aloft. All weekend long, the system was highly tilted (strongly wind sheared), with the deep thunderstorm activity located well to the east of an exposed center of circulation near the surface with limited cloud cover around it (really, it was just a little tiny area of spin northeast of the Bahamas!).

 

This morning, on the first image above, I've highlighted where the old surface low was from the weekend and where I think a new one is developing. Wind shear is decreasing in the western Atlantic near this low (Image 2 -- notice the large area I've highlighted in blue with weaker wind shear.. the cooler colors), and this is likely allowing a new area of low pressure to develop closer to where the thunderstorms area. More importantly, this is also allowing the center of circulation to potentially move away from the very dry air in place over much of the western Atlantic right now off the east coast of Florida (remember how dry it was for us this weekend; this was the reason why!.. you can see this in the third image, the brown/dusty color over the left hand side of the image). Not only did the wind shear keep things from developing over the weekend, but the dry air played an important role too -- deep moisture is key for tropical or subtropical development.

 

As I mentioned last week, though, water temperatures are really slightly too cool for tropical development (ideal is 80 degrees or higher to a depth of at least approx. 200 feet). As the low becomes better organized and kicks toward the west with a ridge of high pressure aloft, it will be key to watch how close it gets to the Gulf stream.. the ribbon of very warm water than runs up the east coast. This is highlighted in red on the 5th image.. lower right hand panel. If the low pressure areas near the ground and aloft become vertically stacked, in a weak area of wind shear, and end up over the Gulf stream (it will get close), we could have some pretty quick development along the east coast.

 

Now for the big question; where would this low (whether extratropical, subtropical, or tropical) go?

Not toward southwest Florida! There is a large area of high pressure located over the Ohio Valley now; this will initially drive the low westward toward the Carolinas. As that ow builds toward New England, the steering level wind will become northeasterly, pushing whatever develops back toward to the southwest... so along the southeast coast. However, this steering wind is weak, which would serve to more or less keep the low in place off the GA/SC coast. For us, we'd continue to be on the much drier side of this system and, while our chance of rain would increase somewhat at midweek (especially inland), we would never see any steady or heavy rain -- in fact, it's possible no area in the US will see heavy rain from this! Ultimately, the low should be kicked to the east out into the Atlantic again as an upper level disturbance moves through the jet stream at mid week (circled in Image 5).. with only some unsettled weather lingering behind it through the first half of Memorial Day weekend.

 

Elsewhere, there is still the possibility for some weak development in the Caribbean later this week, but it likely would become wrapped into the circulation of the low I've mentioned above and get pulled well east of Florida. Another model, the Canadian, implies the possibility of some additional development in the far western Caribbean, but not until the weekend.

 

Brian

Brian: Hot & mainly dry today, highs in the low 90's... watching the tropics

Good morning! Just a fast update here on a Monday morning... hot and mainly dry weather will continue today across southwest Florida as we remain on the western side of a developing area of low pressure out in the Atlantic. It might not be quite as dry today as a few thunderstorms may have a chance to drift in from the north; the best chance of rain today should be along the coast and north of the Caloosahatchee. Otherwise it's a bit breezy this afternoon and hot with highs pushing into the lower 90's for most communities.

 

Tomorrow through Thursday, Atlantic low pressure (possibly our first named storm of the season -- subtropical Alex?) will drift closer to the coast and increase our rain chances slightly. We still should be well west of the center of this low, meaning drier air should persist.. especially along the coast. I'll have much more on the potential for the first named storm of the season a little later this morning.

 

Here is today's forecast:

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Hot; High 92 
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Hot; High 92
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 92
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 90
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 90
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Hot; High 91
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Hot; High 91
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 90

 

See you on WINK!

 

Brian

Lauren: Another round of sun & heat is in store for Sunday!

It was a hot day across SWFL with high temperatures reaching into the low 90's, and with high pressure in control, the heat will be on once again for our Sunday. A mostly sunny sky will kick off the last day of the weekend with partly cloudy conditions for the afternoon as a deck of fair weather cumulus clouds forms with the heat of the day. High temperatures will once again rise into the low 90's with highs near 90 degrees even at the beaches due to the lack of a sea breeze. Despite the heat, humidity levels will remain on the bearable side with breezy conditions developing through the second half of the day to help cool us off a bit. A great day to spend outdoors, if relaxing is in your Sunday plans and plenty of water is in your cooler!

Have a great Sunday!
Lauren

Partly Cloudy

Isolated rain tonight, partly cloudy and warm this weekend.  An area of low pressure may develop over the Atlantic by Sunday and persist into next week.  I don't think it will have much of an effect on our weather. - Jim

Brian: Subtropical storm possible next week off the east coast..

Good morning! I continue to watch the possibility of a subtropical storm developing off the Atlantic coast later this weekend and early next week. Remember, a subtropical storm is one that acts like a regular area of low pressure (cold-season low) aloft but, near the ground, acts more like a tropical area of low pressure. If a storm is deemed subtropical, it does take on a name; in this case, potentially Alex.

 

This is not a sure thing though! While the upper level support will be there in the form of a vast area of low pressure forming off the east coast, at the low levels, water temperatures are only marginally supportive of a warm core (tropical) system. A warm core system is one that develops independent of temperature gradients (or horizontal differences in temperature), it forms via convective processes (thunderstorm). In fact, while the developing low is now located near the Bahamas where the water is at or above 80 degrees, as the low moves to the north it will encounter cooler water. This will work against the formation of a subtropical storm. That said, most of our forecast models do indicate the potential for a subtropical storm to form, including the GFS model (included above). Notice the cooler water I've highlighted on the lower right panel -- the forecast for Tuesday morning -- and, perhaps more importantly, the belt of strong wind shear located just south of the low on the lower left panel. Bottom line is the atmosphere is marginally supportive of a subtropical system (NHC has acknowledged this by designating the system INVEST 90L, the first "invest system" of the season).

 

Regardless of what the outcome is with the classification of the storm off the east coast, our weather effects should be as outlined in my last blog post!

 

I'm also watching the potential for a tropical low pressure area to develop in the southern Caribbean by the middle of next week. If it develops far enough to the south, it will be in an environment very supportive of tropical development -- low wind shear and very warm/deep water. As it moves north though toward Cuba, Jamaica, and Haiti, it will encounter strong westerly wind and likely be shredded apart. It will be worth watching though and we'll do just that as we head into early next week!

 

Hope to see you at our hurricane expo tomorrow at the Charlotte Harbor Event Center. It will be your first chance to pick up the 2010 Hurricane Survival Guide and you'll get a chance to meet several WINK personalities! We have two seminars scheduled, one at 10:30am and the other at 1:30pm.

 

Brian

Brian: A bit hazy to start, otherwise partly cloudy & mainly dry today.. 90's!

Good morning; hope your Friday is off to a great start! The driest day yet this week is upon us as we start to feel the effects of high pressure building in the upper levels of the atmosphere and a building low pressure area out in the Atlantic. Between the two is the best place to be this weekend and this is exactly where we in southwest Florida will find ourselves! For today, the easterly breeze should be strong enough to pin the afternoon Gulf breeze to the coast. There might be just enough moisture around for a few late day showers or storms (very dry air in place aloft, so it will be a while before storms can form), however, most places will stay dry. It's hot this afternoon with highs in the 90's everywhere except right at the beaches where we'll stay in the upper 80's.

 

For the weekend, still hot and mainly dry tomorrow; by Sunday, it should be mostly sunny with highs again in the lower 90's as we feel the driest air between the developing Atlantic low and the eastern US ridge. This should carry into Monday as well before the forecast becomes a bit more tricky next week with respect to that developing ocean low. Whether it becomes a subtropical storm or not (I blogged about this yesterday and will again later this morning), how close it gets to the east coast will dictate our rain chances. The farther away it stays, the drier we are; the closer it gets, the better the chance of rain. Right now, it looks like it only will get close enough to bring isolated storm chances to the area (especially inland) Tuesday - Thursday.. however, if an upper level disturbance moving well to the north of it can't give it a firm enough tug early next week, it would have a chance to get closer to SWFL and linger into the first part of the Memorial Day weekend.

 

Either way, plan on dry weather sticking around through Monday with a slight increase in the chance of showers and storms by Tuesday. With a few more clouds, temps will be a bit cooler next week.

 

Here is today's forecast:

 

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 90
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 92
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 92
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 91
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 90
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy; High 91
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy; High 89
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy; High 90

 

Brian

Brian: Keeping an eye on the tropics the next 10 days..

Good morning! Earlier this week I alluded to the possibility of areas of interest in the tropics over the coming days; as each new model run comes in, the idea that there will at least be areas of disturbed weather in the western Atlantic and Caribbean Sea becomes more certain.

 

First things first, let's talk about the possibility of a subtropical system developing between the east coast, the Bahamas and Bermuda later this weekend or early next week. Most of the forecast model guidance supports the idea that an upper level area of low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley southward toward the Atlantic coast late this week and early this weekend. This is one piece of the puzzle (the extratropical piece -- the part of a subtropical storm that more resembles a "regular" area of low pressure that one would expect to see during the cold season). The other piece? Well, you felt it yesterday -- or at least noticed it as clouds got in the way of your beach day or any of your outdoor plans! We had a lot of high cirrus clouds around most of SWFL yesterday, with lower clouds and precipitation across southern parts of the area. Even heavier rain was located across the Florida Straits eastward toward Miami and the Bahamas. This tropical moisture is associated with a trough of low pressure in the low levels of the atmosphere and a strong subtropical jet stream.

 

Our models forecast a weak area of low pressure to develop this weekend over or just east of the Bahamas. Eventually, the upper level low off the east coast is expected to "link" with this weak surface low and potentially form a subtropical storm (if the National Hurricane Center acknowledges this, this could become our first named storm of the year -- Alex). This is not altogether unusual for May (in fact, subtropical developments are the "most likely" developments this time of year!). Any storm that does develop, subtropical or not, would meander for quite a while out in the western Atlantic with weak steering currents in place. This is why my weekend forecast is pretty dry across southwest Florida. Down the line, the question will be whether whatever develops is picked up by the next upper level disturbance or is, rather, guided back toward the southeast by an area of high pressure building to its north. Right now, this seems (at least initially) like the most likely outcome, meaning our shower and thunderstorm chance will increase by the middle of next week.

 

What else am I watching? There's a tropical wave right now located south of 10 degrees north latitude east of South America. This wave is likely too far south for any sort of development even though upper level wind is favorable and water temperatures are much warmer than average across this area of the Atlantic. Down the line, this wave is forecast to move into the southern Caribbean; this is where things might get interesting.

 

Above, I've included a map of sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic. Notice the amount of territory in the tropical Atlantic that already has temperatures at or above 80 degrees (shaded in yellow, anything south of the red line). Also included is a map of something known as Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP); this is important because it measures not only the temperature of the water, but the depth to which the water is warm. The deeper and warmer the water, the higher the TCHP and the more fuel there is for tropical systems to develop. Notice the hot spot right now? South of Jamaica and Cuba.. the exact area where this tropical wave is expected to be drawn by the middle of next week. There is strong upper level wind located north of here (and this is expected to still be the case next week); so the wind shear present should preclude anything that develops in the Caribbean from surviving its trip north of the northern islands. That said, the environment seems favorable for some sort of development in the Caribbean next week.

Things may stay more active than average into the first couple of weeks of the Atlantic hurricane season as a pulse of upward moving air moves out of the eastern Pacific Ocean and into the western Atlantic Ocean (this is another feature that favors the idea of early season development in the Atlantic). This pulse is known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and travels eastward across the tropics. Generally, you can expect to see a burst of upward motion (thunderstorms) in the tropics for a few weeks followed by the descending phase (fewer thunderstorms). Ever notice how tropical activity seems to come in bursts, and then its quiet for weeks? This is just one of the explanations for that observation.

 

Stay tuned over the next several days -- we'll be tracking the tropics a little more closely than we usually do this time of year!

 

Brian

Brian: Hazy & humid this morning, isolated storms this afternoon.. near 90

Good morning! The deep tropical moisture that's been flirting with southwest Florida the past several days has moved to the east out toward the Bahamas (more on this in a later blog post -- let's just say this area is worth watching next week!) and we'll start the day with plenty of sun once some low clouds and fog burn off. For the afternoon, there's still enough moisture around for some isolated storms and, with steering currents changing to northerly and northeasterly, these storms will push back toward the Gulf by late in the day. It'll be warm today with highs in the upper 80's and low 90's.

 

For tomorrow, drier air moves in and it should be a mainly dry afternoon. In fact, as an area of low pressure develops off the east coast, we should see dry air funnel into southwest Florida for the weekend -- leaving us with a partly cloudy to mostly sunny sky each day. The breeze picks up next week and by mid-week so will the chance of rain. Next week's forecast is pretty tricky depending on this area of low pressure I'm watching; I'll have more on this later!

 

Today's forecast:

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 89
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 90
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 90
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 90
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 88
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 88
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 88
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 89

 

Brian

Scott: a few storms popping up in Collier Co. heading NE! More rain tomorrow. Details @5.

Storms moving to the NE today. Still can't rule out a storm at the coast through the rest of the evening. Live radar on WINK starting at 5. We are keeping rain in the forecast for the next couple of days even though by the weekend we should be dry and hot! Also, the oil slick is now in the loop current. We have models showing this moving into the keys by next wednesday. Join me at 5 for details.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Brian: Less Than 2 Weeks Until Hurricane Season... and?

I thought about blogging yesterday about the possibility of a subtropical storm forming next week off of the east coast, but wanted to give it another few model runs first. Those new model runs have come in and continue to suggest that a large area of low pressure will develop in the upper levels of the atmosphere between the Carolinas, Bermuda and the Bahamas over the weekend and get trapped by a ridge of high pressure building to its west and north. Some of our models are indicating chances of rain here through the weekend and early next week; if you've been watching us this morning, you've probably noticed I'm going against those models right now because, generally speaking, low pressure to our east aloft (and at the surface) favors drier weather in southwest Florida.

 

Now, onto the possibilities of a sub-tropical storm -- one that has tropical characteristics in the low levels of the atmosphere but is much more like a regular, cold-season area of low pressure aloft. At this point, the sea temperatures are marginally supportive of a tropical system over parts of the Atlantic off the southeast coast (80 degrees or higher; not many reports of this).. this is one the feature that leads me to believe we may get close to a subtropical storm, but not quite there. That said, wind shear is expected to relax along the southeast coast and this would favor the development of such a storm.

 

When looking at whether a storm or tropical, sub-tropical, or extra-tropical, we look at changes in temperature in the atmosphere. Frontal (or extra-tropical) storms feature significant wind shear and big changes in temperature both vertically and horizontally. In the upper levels, next week's system should resemble a frontal system. In the low levels, though, temperatures will be more uniform around the expected center of low pressure (according to current modeling), indicative of a more sub-tropical or tropical system. I've attached one of our forecast models, the European -- in the top right hand panel, circle in blue, is the potential area of low pressure. It will be one to watch this weekend and early next week but, at this point, I'm thinking that water temperatures are probably a little too cool still in this area to allow for a truly sub-tropical system to develop.

 

Farther south, several models have hinted for days at the possibility of some weak development in the far southern Caribbean next week. Unlikely, but we'll watch it. And, in any event, any development well to our south would have to cross a belt of intense wind shear located through the southern Gulf and northern Caribbean, where it would be shredded apart. But, the general idea is things are starting to look a little more summer-like as we approach the start of the 2010 hurricane season.

 

Brian

Brian: Oil is either very close or in the Gulf loop current.. now what?

Good morning! The University of South Florida College of Marine Science issued an interesting report yesterday on the future movements of the oil slick now that it has become involved with the fast-moving Gulf loop current. You can view an animation of their forecast models here. In summary, they all show the oil that was in the "tentacle" of the Gulf loop current we talked about yesterday following that stream of water directly into the main current. As we've been talking about, once the oil becomes integrated into the loop current, it has nowhere to go but south into the Florida Straits and then eventually up the east coast.

 

Uncertain is what the concentration of surface oil will be as it moves toward the Keys (again, remember the loop current passes around 200 miles west of southwest Florida, so this continues to not be any immediate concern to us). Via evaporation and dilution (as the "dirty water" mixes with "clean water"), the concentration of surface oil will not be nearly as high as it enters the Keys compared to what it is near the foot print of the oil spill closer to the central Gulf coast. And, remember, a bigger issue is what we can't see underneath the water surface -- several probes have found large underwater plumes that will move with deeper Gulf ocean currents, which are much slower than surface currents. The potential arrival of any of this deeper supply of underwater oil is still many weeks away from the Florida Straits.

 

The Gulf loop current moves at about 3-5 mph, meaning from the site of the oil slick to Key West, the transport time is only around 5 days. The modeling supports this (as you can see in the animations). The College of Marine Science extrapolated the models beyond May 22nd (assuming everything stays the same) to determine the earliest arrival of oil on the east coast (near Miami) would be around Memorial Day weekend. Bottom line: some form of oil is headed toward the Keys and the east coast, it's only a matter of time. What the concentration of that oil will be on arrival though is still largely uncertain!

 

Brian

Brian: Scattered storms today south & inland.. highs in the mid to upper 80's..

Just a quick update this morning before my next weathercast in 3 minutes (see you on WINK!) -- some haze and even some fog a possibility this morning as we're socked in with deep moisture once again. This moisture is deepest across Collier County and inland southwest Florida; not coincidentally, this is where the highest chance of rain will be today. Farther north, closer to drier air, I think we're looking at a mainly dry day along the I-75 corridor from near Bonita Springs north toward Port Charlotte, with slightly higher chances of rain just east of there. In any event, here are today's forecasts by city/county:

Naples  Mostly Cloudy  Isolated Storms; High 86
Bonita Springs Clouds & Sun  Isolated Storms; High 88
Fort Myers Mix of Clouds & Sun; High 90
Cape Coral Mix of Clouds & Sun; High 88
Port Charlotte Mix of Clouds & Sun; High 88
Hendry Co. Mostly Cloudy  Scattered Storms; High 87
Glades Co. Clouds & Sun  Isolated Storms; High 87
DeSoto Co. Mix of Clouds & Sun; High 88

 

Enjoy your Wednesday!

 

Brian

A Shower

A few showers this evening then partly cloudy and mild tonight.  Tomorrow will feature partly cloudy sky with isolated rain. - Jim

Brian: A few small showers developing in DeSoto & Charlotte...

We're off to a slower start this morning with the development of showers and storms but things should become much more active over the next few hours. I'm watching a few small showers that have developed in eastern Charlotte and DeSoto County.. these should have no problem becoming a little heavier as they track toward the east. That will be the motion of our showers and storms again this afternoon.. with the heaviest activity concentrated across inland southwest Florida later this afternoon. Again, with plenty of cloud cover, temperatures will be held back into the 80's for the most part -- but it will feel like it's in the 90's with high dewpoints!

 

Brian

Brian: No Tar Balls on Fort Myers Beach...

As I suspected earlier, the objects that resembled tar balls that washed ashore south of the Fort Myers Beach pier this morning were indeed not tar balls. The currents in the Gulf of Mexico at this time simply don't support any particles from the Gulf oil slick reaching our beaches at this time. According to the Ostego Bay Foundation, they believe what was found is something known as sea pork -- a type of tunicate. This is often gray or pink and has a squishy, fleshy consistency to it. The US Coast Guard also says that it is exceedingly unlikely that these were tar balls.

 

Brian

Brian: South Florida Rainy Season Underway.. as of Sunday

The rainy season is officially underway in South Florida (east coast and Collier County) as declared by the National Weather Service in Miami. One measure they use is when the dewpoint climbs above 70 degrees and remains there for the foreseeable future coupled with the return of daily showers and storms that form along the afternoon sea breeze. This has happened over the past few days on the east coast. On our side of the state, our rainy season really has not started yet as our showers and storms of the past few days have been driven less by sea breeze circulations and more by upper level disturbances moving through. This is, however, debatable. Also, while dewpoints will remain high, the chance of rain will drop dramatically over the next few days as a ridge of high pressure builds in aloft. In fact, from Friday through at least Sunday, the weather should remain dry across SWFL.

 

You can read the announcement from the NWS in Miami here.

 

Brian

Brian: Oil Slick and Hurricane Season.. What If?

A little later this morning I'll be on Daybreak with Trey Radel on 92.5 Fox News Radio (during the 8 am hour) to talk about what impact (if any) the oil slick could have on a hurricane and vice-versa. At this point, this is still very much an open question and, in my opinion, the larger concern is what a impact a hurricane would have on the foot print of the oil slick -- assuming the site of the Deepwater Horizon rig explosion is still spewing oil into the Gulf as a storm develops nearby or tracks over the foot print (while the flow has been stemmed somewhat by recent operations, it is still possible it could be many weeks before the oil spill is fully contained).

 

The greatest concern would have to do with storm surge. Let's assume a hypothetical storm hits New Orleans and is strong enough to produce a substantial storm surge. This would create onshore wind over the oil slick (from south to north), likely taking much of the oil inland with the surge. How far inland? Researchers are attempting to answer this question now but, in any event, it would not be a good situation for the coast of eastern Lousiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. On the reverse side, a storm coming in east of the oil slick would likely send oil southbound into the Gulf... directly into the Gulf loop current. Ultimately, this oil would have no other option than to head into the Florida Straits, along the Keys, and up along the east coast of Florida. Either way, a landfalling hurricane in the northern Gulf is likely a bad proposition with respect to the oil spill.

 

What about hurricane or tropical storm development over the slick? The impact would likely be far greater on a developing storm rather than a fully mature storm. To get a tropical cylone to form, you need a supply of warm, deep water (evaporation into the atmosphere.. provides the moisture for the storm). The oil on the surface of the Gulf would likely slow the rate of evaporation thus depriving a tropical cyclone of some of this much-needed moisture. Now, that said, the odds of a significant system developing that close to land is very slim (honestly, almost zero).. anything that develops in this area would likely be weak anyway. In the event of a developed, mature storm moving across the oil slick -- there could be some minimal weakening over the oil slick as the rate of evaporation is reduced.. the extent of the weakening would likely depend on the amount of time the storm spent over the slick (slow moving vs. fast moving storm).

 

Brian

Brian: Visibility below 1 mile in Punta Gorda.. fog burns off next hour or two..

Brian: Did tar balls from the Gulf oil slick wash up on Fort Myers Beach? Unlikely..

If you were just watching us on WINK, Kyle Jordan -- live near the Fort Myers Beach pier -- showed a couple of objects that had the look of tar balls similar to what washed ashore near Key West yesterday (several per hour there). However, it is very unlikely that these objects are at all associated with the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico and the subsequent oil slick. Why?

 

Yesterday, it became clear that at least part of the oil slick had become involved with some of the "tentacles" of the Gulf loop current, the fast-moving stream of warm water that races from the area of the oil slick to the Keys at a 3 - 5 mph pace. A piece of the loop current, or at least enhanced surface current velocity, was located just north of the northernmost part of the current and ultimately connected with the southernmost part of the oil slick. The visibile satellite image at the top clearly shows this (and matches well with the surface current map just below).

 

From here, the oil slick at the surface would be pulled southward toward the Keys -- but passing a couple hundred miles west of southwest Florida. So, at the surface, that "sheen" you see in the visible satellite view entering our waters is really not a concern. Further, surface currents near the west coast of Florida are very weak and actually directed largely offshore or parallel to the coast (see the bottom image again) -- further working against the oil slick approaching our coastline. In fact, this offshore surface current was shown to exist in the late 1990s as the USGS dropped several probes in the Gulf waters and tracked them to see where oil might go in the event of a spill similar to the one happening right now. None of these probes returned to the southwest coast of Florida.

 

Of higher concern is what's happening underneath the water -- where we can't see. Here, water currents are much slower and all signs point to there being significant plumes of oil. Because currents are much slower below the surface of the Gulf, it would take many weeks -- if not longer -- to first observe any impacts here in SWFL. Deep water currents actually are directed onshore rather than offshore (like they are at the surface), and potentially what lingers under water is a much bigger worry than what's at the surface right now.

 

Because surface currents are much faster but directed away from southwest Florida and toward the Keys, it seems logical that the tar balls that washed ashore in the Keys are associated with the oil slick. What was found this morning in SWFL? Probably not so much! That said, we have had a couple days now of onshore flow but, again, with the Loop Current located so far offshore and the wind still relatively light, it still seems unlikely that tar balls from the oil slick could have ventured into our water.

 

Of course, there are also several variables at play that we must watch carefully -- most notably the wind. Wind can certainly augment the weak surface current and a prolonged stretch of south or southwest wind coming up from the Keys potentially could alter the future track of the oil slick.

 

Brian

Brian: Scattered storms today, moving inland.. highs 85-90

Here is a quick look at today's forecast. Low clouds and fog continue to develop across the area as we move toward daybreak; watch out for some locally dense fog over the next couple of hours!

 

Brian

 

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Scattered Storms; High 87
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Scattered Storms; High 89
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Scattered Storms; High 88
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Scattered Storms; High 87
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Scattered Storms; High 86
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered Storms; High 90
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered Storms; High 88
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Scattered Storms; High 87

Brian: Dense fog advisory for Hendry & Inland Collier until 9 AM..

Good morning! We start Tuesday with some haze and fog across southwest Florida, a result of the combination of a calm wind and ample moisture. The hazy and foggy spots should abate within an hour or two of sunrise, giving way to a partly cloudy sky. Again, though, with unstable air in place and plenty of moisture, showers and storms will quickly develop during the second half of the morning. With the upper level steering currents out of the west, most of the showers and storms will push inland by the afternoon leaving the coast with a mainly dry finish. Highs today will be in the upper 80's to near 90.

 

For tomorrow, an upper level disturbance over Texas will move overhead and give us one last chance of some fairly widespread storms.. most of these will be inland. By Thursday, the steering currents change to northeasterly -- this means any storms that linger for Thursday afternoon will move back to the Gulf instead of inland with time. By Friday and Saturday, drier air moves in and that should end the chances of rain for a few days. Much more on your forecast coming up on WINK in minutes; see you there!

 

Brian

Scattered Rain

Scattered rain will roam, the area the next 2 days and nights with drier weather likely by the end of the week. - Jim

Brian: Naples waterspout spotted at approximately 11:30 this morning..

Check out this report from the Naples airport this morning:

 

KAPF 171527Z 22008KT 3SM +FC +RA BR SCT015 BKN024 27/26 A3005 RMK WATERSPOUT B26 AO2 P0015 $

 

This is from 11:27 AM.. Naples was reporting heavy rain and a funnel cloud -- a waterspout reported (whether that was over Naples Bay or over the Gulf is unclear at this point). We do have an atmosphere this afternoon that is conducive to produce funnel clouds as the atmosphere is socked in with moisture and the cloud bases are very low. Couple this with some slight twisting in the wind (wind shear) in the lowest 3,000 or so feet of the atmosphere and you have a recipe for one or two storms to produce a funnel out over the water. Also, as we talked about earlier, there is the chance of a strong wind gust or two later today.. especially inland.

 

Heavy rain is now approaching the Cape Haze peninsula with heavy showers expected shortly near Rotonda and North Port within the next half hour. Lighter showers are moving through inland areas right now.

If you have any pictures of the Naples waterspout.. we'd love to see them. Please send them to weather@winktv.com!

 

Brian

Brian: Showers and storms developing along the coast.. moving inland

Finally showers and storms are developing along the coast and heading inland as I write this.. a bit of a delayed start, but we're underway! Early this afternoon, plan on a good chance of rain along and west of I-75 with the best chances of rain shifting inland by late in the day and into the early evening. Plenty of clouds will keep temperatures in the mid 80's (some upper 80's inland).. but, more importantly, with the humidity so high.. it will feel like it's in the 90's.

 

We might start tomorrow with a few coastal showers but, primarily, we're looking at mainly inland showers and storms for tomorrow. A little drier still on Wednesday with isolated inland storms. The pattern does begin to switch slightly on Thursday and, with enough humidity, I've put back in a chance of a few showers and storms.. this time though, they'll move back to the coast with time.

 

Have a great Monday!

 

Brian

Brian: Hazy & humid, temps in the 70s.. rain/storms developing in Gulf..

Just a quick update here to let you know that showers and a few storms are beginning to appear in the Gulf of Mexico as they begin to get closer to our radar beam (remember, the radar beam gets higher in the sky with height, so the farther offshore storms are the higher in the storm the beam is scanning.. earlier, the beam was actually scanning above the rain!). These will become more numerous later this morning along the coast and then push inland this afternoon.

 

We have a similar setup tomorrow although I think tomorrow will be an overall drier day at the coast -- with much more in the way of inland showers and storms. The chance of rain drops back to the isolated category for Wednesday.. and perhaps Thursday as well, although for now I'm leaving Thursday's forecast dry. Full update minutes away on 6 TV. See you there.

 

Have a great Monday!

 

Brian

Brian: Showers & storms likely today.. highs in the 80's.. drier later this week!

It's a dry start to your Monday morning (for now), but don't get caught without your umbrella later today! We're in a very unsettled pattern right now with tropical moisture moving in from the south and a series of upper level disturbances moving across the Gulf. All of this should combine for another round of widespread showers and storms, beginning first this morning along the coast and then pushing mainly inland for the afternoon. There will be lots of clouds around and that should hold temperatures back into the 80's for all areas. Also, I'm watching a pocket of some drier air about 3 miles or so above the ground. This is important because as precipitation falls through it and evaporates, the air becomes heavier than the surrounding air and has a tendency to sink quickly.. leading to the possibility of some gusty wind in any thunderstorms today.

 

Here are today's numbers:

 

Naples  Mostly Cloudy  Storms Likely; High 85
Bonita Springs Mostly Cloudy  Storms Likely; High 86
Fort Myers Mostly Cloudy  Storms Likely; High 86
Cape Coral Mostly Cloudy  Storms Likely; High 86
Port Charlotte Mostly Cloudy  Storms Likely; High 85
Hendry Co. Mostly Cloudy  Storms Likely; High 87
Glades Co. Mostly Cloudy  Storms Likely; High 86
DeSoto Co. Mostly Cloudy  Storms Likely; High 86

 

Brian

Brian: Great article on Gulf Loop Current and Oil Spill

Good morning! I've linked to an article that does a great job of explaining the various factors that will affect the future movements of the oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico. It talks about some of the things we've mentioned over the past few weeks -- including a pretty good explanation of the eddies (faster moving water that can break off from the Gulf loop current) that can potentially draw oil farther north or south independent of the main current itself. This comes on the heels of news that some computer modeling suggests that some of the oil may already be in the loop current and headed for the Florida Straits.

 

Brian

Lauren: It was a stormy Sunday and more storms are in the forecast to start the work week.

Most of us across SWFL received our first rainfall of May today...and impressive was the rain in some areas...rainfall totaled to 4.25" today in Punta Gorda! 2.80" of rain was reported was in Port Charlotte, 2.00" was the day's tally in Golden Gate with over an inch of rain falling in Lehigh Acres, La Belle, and Arcadia. In Naples and at Southwest Florida International Airport the rain gauge measured over .50" of rain for the Sunday total...thus Mother Nature is making up for lost time with more storms in the forecast for Monday.

A moist atmosphere in combination with an upper level disturbance and a developing sea breeze will result in the development of another round of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. Expect scattered rain with isolated storms for Monday morning with rain and storms increasing in coverage and intensity through the afternoon as daytime heating works to further destabilize the atmosphere. Expect additional rainfall totals for Monday near to .50" with 1.00"+ possible locally.

Stay Dry!
Lauren

A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HENDRY, GLADES, AND INLAND COLLIER COUNTIES FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING UNTIL 4:30PM.

Strong thunderstorms moving through Eastern Lee, northern Collier, and western Hendry counties. Storms will contain heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, gusty winds and may contain small hail. Storms moving to the north-northeast at 15 mph.

Lauren: Storms in the Forecast for Sunday

After experiencing a monthly rainfall total of nearly 2.50" above the average for April... for the month of May so far we've only tallied up a trace of rainfall in the rain gauge at Page Field! Thus our May flowers, need some showers and Mother Nature will provide as we head into Sunday and the beginning of next week. Look for scattered thunderstorms to develop tomorrow afternoon especially near to the coast, and as a series of upper level disturbances pushes through on Monday & Tuesday, a wet start to the work week is in store.

More details coming at 11:30pm on WINK!
Lauren

Scott: Warm today and warm for your weekend. Might see rain by your Sunday! Details at 5 on WINK.

Watching a few high clouds overhead that will linger through the rest of the day and through your weekend. Saturday remains dry, however Sunday we are expecting some tropical moisture to return to the area. Slightly more humid by then and scattered storms are in the forecast for Sunday and Monday, even Tuesday. I will have all the details starting at 5 on WINK.. Jim took a day off to enjoy the warm weather.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Brian: Some tropical moisture headed toward SWFL early next week..

I just pointed out on the air this morning that there's a little disturbance right now between Hispanolia and Puerto Rico (just to the north) that will affect our weather next week. As high pressure breaks down over the southeast and slides east, the flow will turn more southerly and southeasterly, allowing this disturbance to push toward the Florida Straits. Right now, it looks like much of this moisture will just miss our side of the state and end up on the east coast or out into the Atlantic.. if it noses a little farther west, though, we'll end up with even higher rain chances early in the week!

 

In the meantime, some new model runs are coming in and they continue to point to the possibility of a shower along the Gulf breeze tomorrow. I'm still leaving that chance of rain out of the forecast, but plan on some more clouds tomorrow afternoon -- so enjoy the beach earlier in the day!

 

By the way.. launch forecast for Atlantis (2:20 pm today) looks good. Mostly clear with an east breeze at 10. Only concern is some lower clouds coming in off of the Atlantic but, right now, looks like those clouds should be west of the launch site by the time we hit the scheduled launch time.

 

Brian

Brian: High clouds & sun today.. highs near 90

Good morning! Some high clouds are moving in from the Gulf this morning and will be in the sky from time to time over the next day or two. Otherwise, today's one last "repeat performance" of the weather we've seen all week long with relatively comfortable humidity, a steady east breeze, and highs near 90 back to the coast (mid 80's along the Lake with the breeze off of the water). The humidity increases tomorrow and we'll see a few more clouds; although some of our models are trying to put out some small chances of rain along the coast tomorrow, I'm leaving the forecast dry for now. Not so on Sunday though!

 

As high pressure weakens, an upper level disturbance moves across the Gulf, and some tropical moisture moves through the Florida Straits, our rain chances increase into Sunday afternoon. I think we'll see mainly a few coastal showers and storms on Sunday, although some of the models are now really increasing the chance of rain such that just about all coastal areas see rain on Sunday (new models are just coming in.. I'll have an update on this later!). Much wetter on Monday with morning and afternoon storms likely.. the rain and clouds will hold temperatures back into the mid 80's. Slightly drier Tuesday and much drier by Wednesday with only a few inland storms possible. The chance of rain should be gone by Thursday!

 

Much more on your forecast on WINK in just 6 minutes. In the meantime, today's forecast:
Naples  Partly Cloudy; High 90
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy; High 90
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy; High 90
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy; High 90
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy; High 87
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy; High 87
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy; High 86
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy; High 88

Brian

Warm and Dry

Partly cloudy and warm this evening.  It will be a partly cloudy, hot day tomorrow. - Jim

Brian: Launch of Atlantis tomorrow at 2:20 pm.. no weather problems!

Tomorrow at 2:20 pm, Space Shuttle Atlantis will leave Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral for a 12-day mission to the International Space Station. On the mission, they will deliver a Russian built research lab module and a cargo carrier to the ISS. As of right now, we look on target for a perfect launch day.. with a mostly sunny sky in the forecast, temperatures in the low 80's, and an east breeze at 10-15 mph. The only issue might be some low clouds coming in off of the Atlantic, but I think by the time of the launch, most of these clouds should be located west of the launch pad.

 

Brian

Brian: Some haze this morning, starting in the upper 60's..

Good morning! Your Thursday morning starts with temperatures in the mid to upper 60's in most of southwest Florida; so, it's another fairly comfortable mid-May morning as you get going. Any haze or low clouds will quickly burn off this morning giving way to a mostly sunny sky as a strong area of high pressure remains in control of our weather. A few shallow, "squashed" clouds might develop this afternoon -- that's about it! The temp pattern is going to be very similar to the last few days across the area, with temperatures in the mid to upper 80's near the Lake and near 90 elsewhere. Essentially a carbon copy awaits us tomorrow but, for the weekend, it will turn noticeably more humid. In fact, there's even a slight chance of a coastal shower by late in the day on Sunday.

 

Our chance of rain will increase substantially into Monday as our strong high breaks down, shifts to the east, and some tropical moisture pushes into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. In fact, some of our models say a weak tropical wave could potentially come up through the Florida Straits and toward the east coast on Tuesday and Wednesday.. this will be something to watch over the next few days -- not for any development, obviously, but rather for an enhancement to our rain chances.

 

Here is today's forecast:

Naples  Mostly Sunny; High 90
Bonita Springs Mostly Sunny; High 91
Fort Myers Mostly Sunny; High 90
Cape Coral Mostly Sunny; High 90
Port Charlotte Mostly Sunny; High 88
Hendry Co. Mostly Sunny; High 87
Glades Co. Mostly Sunny; High 87
DeSoto Co. Mostly Sunny; High 88

 

Have a great Thursday!

 

Brian

Hot and Dry

It will be clear and dry tonight.  It looks like a mostly sunny, hot day tomorrow.  The dry weather pattern will stay in place through the weekend. - Jim

Brian: Hazy start with some high clouds.. temps in the upper 60's and low 70's

Good morning! The strong area of high pressure I've been blogging about the past few days is finally setting up overhead. This will set the stage for a mostly sunny and hot day today. While we will see a bit of a Gulf breeze try to set up right along the coast and a few clouds with it, the strength of the sinking underneath the high should preclude any rain chances today. Expect highs again to run a little lower near the Lake where the wind will be off the water.. elsewhere, expect highs in the low 90's. This high remains in control through Friday with mostly sunny and hot weather. It will turn a bit more humid this weekend; I'll have more coming up on WINK-TV in just minutes. See you there!

Naples  Mostly Sunny; High 90
Bonita Springs Mostly Sunny; High 91
Fort Myers Mostly Sunny; High 91
Cape Coral Mostly Sunny; High 90
Port Charlotte Mostly Sunny; High 89
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy; High 89
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy; High 88
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy; High 89

 

Brian

Clear and Dry tonight

Mostly clear and dry tonight.  Drier air will give us a warm, dry week! - Jim

Brian: Dramatic video of Wakita, OK multi-vortex tornado... At least 10 separate tornadoes yesterday...

Check out this video of an impressive multi-vortex tornado in Wakita, Oklahoma -- near Oklahoma City. What you're looking at is the rotating updraft (column of rapidly rising air) associated with a mesocyclone -- think of this as the precursor to a potential tornado. Not all mesocyclones produce tornadoes but all tornadoes are generated from mesocyclones (remember, a cyclone being a "spinning"/rotating segment of air). From this rotating updraft, several small funnel clouds can be seen that ultimately, according to reports, consolidate into a single, likely long-track tornado (or, at the very least, lend their spin -- or vorticity -- to a main funnel that becomes the long-tracked tornado). This is just one of the storms responsible for all of the devastation yesterday across central and eastern Oklahoma.. with at least 10 tornadoes responsible in part for 5 deaths and many more injured.

 

The same area is under just a slight risk for severe weather today (and tomorrow) compared to yesterday's high risk. While an outbreak of severe storms is unlikely, some isolated strong to severe storms are likely again the next couple of days in OK and KS as another strong area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere moves through the southwestern US.

 

Brian

Brian: 37 Tornado Reports in Yesterday's Severe Weather Outbreak in OK/KS

Good morning! Above I've attached an interesting map from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK. This map depicts tornado reports (red dots), small hail reports, large hail reports, and damaging wind reports. As you can see, there was quite a bit of severe weather yesterday.. with at least 5 fatalities reported as of this writing. Fortunately, this was a well-forecast severe weather outbreak as it was obvious days ago the ingredients of strong upper level wind, warm/humid air, and strong rising motion in the atmosphere would come together over the central and southern Plains yesterday. If this hadn't been the case, the death toll could have been much higher.

 

Another potent system will move into the western US later today and, coupled with the return of warm/humid air from the Gulf of Mexico, the potential will be there for more strong to severe storms later today and tomorrow. However, the severe weather threat should not be as widespread this time.

 

Brian

Brian: A little cooler this morning, 60's, with highs clouds.. near 90 this afternoon

It'll be another day with a "reverse" temperature pattern across southwest Florida -- highs actually a little lower deep inland than along the coast because of a persistent east breeze! Look for highs in the mid 80's near the Lake and near 90 elsewhere. Also, there's a slight chance of a few isolated showers later today -- especially from around Bonita Springs southward where there is still some low level moisture around. Now, that said.. the air will also be relatively dry near the ground meaning a lot of the rain will likely dry up/evaporate before reaching the ground. Bottom line? The chance of rain is not particularly high today at any given location.

 

High pressure builds in the rest of the week with mostly sunny and hot weather. More on that coming up in my 7-day forecast at 5:45 on WINK. See you then!

 

Today's forecast:

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Rain; High 90
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Rain; High 91
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 90
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 90
Port Charlotte Mostly Sunny; High 88
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy; High 87 
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy; High 87
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy; High 88

 

Brian

Scott: A warm week ahead. A chance of rain tomorrow!

Might see some rain tomorrow afternoon along the coast. Its going to be another warm day as highs get into the upper 80's and low 90's. Expect dry weather starting tuesday and lasting into the weekend. Details starting at 5pm on WINK.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

A Pleasant Evening

Lower humidity is in place for the evening, enjoy.  Tomorrow will be partly cloudy with an isolated shower possible. - Jim

Brian: Mostly sunny & less humid today; highs in the upper 80's to low 90's

Good afternoon! The forecast is on track for today with our weak cold (well, dewpoint!) front sliding through Naples now and the humidity dropping to more comfortable levels across SWFL. Highs today will reach near 90 most places, with slightly cooler air on the western shore of Lake Okeechobee owing to the easterly breeze we'll see all day. With the slightly drier air in place, it should be mostly clear this evening with lows tomorrow dropping back into the 60's for most of us. This pattern continues over the next few days.

 

By the way, check out the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK later today. Every once in a while the combination of ample low level moisture, steep decreases in temperature with height, and strong wind (and wind shear) come together to afford a high risk of severe weather.. this is one of those days across parts of eastern OK, KS, MO, and AR. During my time at Penn State, I researched severe thunderstorms and the environments that lead up to them... two of my professors there, Drs. Paul Markowski and Yvette Richardson, are part of the research project VORTEX2 that will be deploying on these storms later today. They've already obtained some tremendous data on storms last week a little farther north and today promises to be an even more active day!

 

Brian

Brian: Gulf Oil Slick Remains North of Gulf Loop Current

Even after a weekend featuring a northerly wind component across the northern Gulf of Mexico, the footprint of the Gulf oil slick remains well north of the Gulf loop current, the ribbon of warm, fast-moving water that has the potential to bring at least a portion of the slick south toward the Florida Straits. The wind direction is now expected to remain favorable for the next several days (easterly to perhaps southeasterly) to keep the oil from entering the loop current. A prolonged period of easterly flow does, though, bring concerns for the oil to begin really washing up through coastal Louisiana and perhaps starting to push somewhat toward the west toward Texas.

 

One thing I am watching though is the presence of a few fast-moving, warm Gulf of Mexico eddies (that move at a pace of about 2-3 mph.. less than the loop current). These are nearby to the oil slick and potentially could guide some of the oil toward the East or Southeast despite the east-to-west blowing wind.

 

Brian

Brian: Weak cold front draped through SWFL this morning..

Good morning! The much-advertised weak cold front is now crossing through southwest Florida -- north of the Caloosahatchee, dewpoint temperatures have fallen into the low 60's.. very comfortable stuff for the middle of May! A little farther south, dewpoints are a bit higher toward the Naples area (low 70's still) and the humidity is near 100%. So, in Collier County, expect to see some haze and fog around this morning.

 

By the afternoon, the front will begin to dissipate across the area but not before bringing the slightly drier air even into Collier (some dry air from aloft will also "mix" down.. helping to lower dewpoints further for some). A steady easterly breeze will develop this afternoon keeping temps slightly cooler near Lake O and slightly warmer closer to the US-41/I-75 corridor. We'll repeat this pattern for the next several days as a large bubble of high pressure builds in the upper levels of the atmosphere.. enjoy!

 

Today's forecast:

Naples  Mostly Sunny  Breezy PM; High 90 
Bonita Springs Mostly Sunny  Breezy PM; High 91
Fort Myers Mostly Sunny  Breezy PM; High 90
Cape Coral Mostly Sunny  Breezy PM; High 90
Port Charlotte Mostly Sunny  Breezy PM; High 89
Hendry Co. Mostly Sunny  Breezy PM; High 89
Glades Co. Mostly Sunny  Breezy PM; High 88
DeSoto Co. Mostly Sunny  Breezy PM; High 89

 

Have a great Monday!

 

Brian

Back to Work Forecast

A mostly clear to partly cloudy sky will kick off our Monday with morning lows in the mid to upper 60s inland to low to mid 70s along the coast. Expect slightly less humid conditions for the start of the work week with a partly cloudy sky persisting into the day. Isolated rain develops for the afternoon, likely inland for the first part of the PM, with isolated showers developing closer to the coast for late afternoon. Temperatures will still reach to toasty levels despite Sunday's cold front passage with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s at the beaches with low 90s inland.

Have a great Monday!
Lauren

Mother Nature's Plan for Mother's Day

Taking Mom out to an early Mother's Day breakfast? You likely will be accompanied by low clouds and areas of fog due to a temperature inversion created by a weak cold front set to approach SWFL late tonight into early tomorrow morning. As temperatures warm and drier air continues to settle in behind the boundary the low clouds will break and the fog will clear allowing for a partly cloudy sky in time for a Mom's Day lunch. Through the afternoon, a few showers are possible, mainly inland, but most will enjoy partly cloudy conditions with lower humidity than we've felt all week long. Expect high temperatures to reach into the upper 80's to low 90's inland for our Sunday.

The heat stays with us into next week but so do the lower humidity values. More details coming up at 11pm!

Happy Mother's Day!
Lauren

A Warm Weekend

An inland shower or thunderstorm will be possible this evening, followed by a partly cloudy and hot weekend with an inland shower or thunderstorm on Sunday. - Jim

Brian: A Weekend Brief Shift in the Wind.. Gulf Oil Spill Watch

Good morning! If you just missed my weather segment a couple of minutes ago, I explained how we're going to be watching the wind direction carefully over the northern Gulf this weekend. A weak cold front will cross through the area Saturday and Sunday, with high pressure building in behind it. This should lead to a 24-48 hour period of first northwesterly, then northeasterly, wind over the northern Gulf before ultimately shifting back to the east after the weekend. In fact, if you look above at our Short Range Ensemble Forecast models (SREFs), they all essentially agree that the wind will be northerly for a time over the weekend. That potentially could bring parts of the oil slick closer to the Gulf loop current that we talked about yesterday.

 

If this were to happen, it would only take 4-6 days for some of the oil to reach the Florida Straits. As of right now, there appears to be enough of a separation between the oil slick and the current position of the loop current to preclude interaction between the two this weekend... but it is worth watching!

 

The top image is the Gulf surface wind at 2 PM on Saturday, the bottom is the same at 2 PM on Sunday (notice how the wind starts to shift back toward the east).

 

Brian