Good morning! One of the questions we've been getting is what could be the worst case scenario for southwest Florida if the oil spill continues to grow in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Ultimately, for us, there are two things to watch: wind direction and the whether the oil slick gets tied into the Gulf loop current. The wind direction continues to be favorable to keep the oil slick away from the Gulf loop current -- a southerly flow that is only slowly pushing the oil toward some of the senstive areas in SE Lousiana, MS and AL. Besides, Gulf currents are generally very weak in the vicinity of the oil slick absent any strong surface wind.. which is why it's been a couple of weeks since the oil rig explosion yet we're still largely in a "watch and wait" phase with respect to where the oil slick goes.
The big player, though, is the Gulf loop current. Right now, the oil slick remains well north of the loop current -- a warm ribbon of water that flows quickly through the Gulf of Mexico, from the Caribbean, and then out through the Florida Straits toward the east coast. As long as the oil slick stays way from this current (which moves at 3-5 MPH.. sounds slow, doesn't it? But relative to the mean water flow through the rest of the Gulf -- this is quite fast!), there are really no concerns here in SWFL. But what if the oil slick expands southward or is pushed southward by a northerly wind (possibly this weekend over the northern Gulf).. or the Gulf loop current expands farther to the north?
The good news for us is that the loop current passes about 175 - 200 miles to the west of SWFL. Thus, absent a strong westerly flow, I think the direct impacts on our beaches here in the area would be minimal.. offshore, deep-sea fishing would be another story, potentially. The bigger concern would be down the line through the Florida Straits, the Keys, and SE FL as this warm ribbon of water passes much closer to their beaches. With water flowing at 3-5 MPH on average through the loop current, it would only take approximately 5-6 days for some oil to reach the Florida Straits.. so the key is how long can the oil slick remain separated from the current! With a shift in the wind (briefly) in the northern Gulf this weekend, it could get close!
Brian
