Good morning! The Atlantic low we talked about in depth yesterday remains a regular, extra-tropical area of low pressure this morning centered well off the east coast between the Bahamas and Bermuda. There is a clear low level center, but it's void of any deep convection (thunderstorms), surrounded by dry air, and being impacted by southwesterly wind shear that is still in the ballpark of 20 knots. This is not a recipe for a developing tropical or sub-tropical storm. That said, there remains a window of possible development as this system moves back to the west into an area of favorable, weaker wind shear and the atmosphere slowly moistens. The moistening though is not happening nearly fast enough according to the latest water vapor imagery.
I should point out, though, that last night's most recent satellite pass (Image 1) from last night did find 30-40 knot wind on the northern side of the center of circulation. So, if it were ever able to get its act together near the center, the transition could still happen to sub-tropical. In terms of weather effects, though, whether it's sub-tropical or extratropical -- it will bring strong wind and high seas of the western Atlantic. For us? Once we get through today's rain chance, drier weather will persist Wednesday through Friday.
Elsewhere, the possible central Caribbean disturbance we talked about last week will be there, but it should quickly get pulled northeast and out to sea with the departing Atlantic low later this week. We may have something to watch in the western Caribbean, near Central America, by late weekend or early next weekend as, potentially, the first storm of the season develops in the Eastern Pacific and then crosses into the Caribbean. More on that later in the week.
Brian
