Good morning! Wanted to post a quick update with the latest on the Gulf oil slick -- and it could be bad news later this week for coastal Mississippi and Alabama as a persistent southwesterly wind could push more of the oil slick toward the barrier islands of these states. Thus far, it's been Louisiana that has gotten the brunt of the oil slick approaching its beaches and marshes because of easterly and southeasterly flow. Later this week, though, as a trough of low pressure pushes into the Gulf of Mexico, the flow will turn out of the southwest threatening the coasts of MS and AL.
This link, courtesy NOAA, has the latest trajectory forecasts for the next 72 hours. Notice how the oil is forecast to get closer to the Gulf coast over the next few days.
Meantime, BP's efforts to cap the well continue. The latest procedure involves cutting the broken pipe and placing a new blowout preventer on top of it. It is possible, though, that this could actually briefly increase the flow of oil from the sea floor, perhaps by 20%. The top kill effort, attempted last week and this weekend -- essentially stuffing the broken pipe with drilling mud and other debris, failed -- leading to this latest attempt. Ultimately, the pressure below the debris filling the pipe had to drop to zero in order to cement shut the pipe, this did not happen, unfortunately.
As it relates to SWFL, the oil spill continues to be of no direct concern or worry. If the oil ever affects us, it will be many weeks if not months away. This is further assured by signs that the Gulf loop current is currently cutting off -- spinning off a westward moving vortex. This has contorted the flow of the loop current and it will remain highly unstable for some period of time.
Brian
