Just a fast update on the potential for subtropical development in the Atlantic: wind shear continues to ease off over the western Atlantic and there are signs that the surface low is starting to form underneath the deepest thunderstorm activity. Additionally, the drier air is slowly being replaced by more humid air from the west -- remember, dry air kills the possibility of tropical or subtropical development (evaporation = cooler air = stronger downdrafts = collapse of t-storms). Until the dry air abates more and the wind shear relaxes more, this will remain an extratropical area of low pressure. The environment is expected to become more favorable for development as the low pushes toward the NW over the next day or two, with the possibility of a subtropical (named) storm developing. This will remain well east (and north) of SWFL, keeping us on the drier side of things, as mentioned over the past few days!
I'm also watching the possibility of some development in the Caribbean (western or central) during the next 7-10 days. I'll have more on this later this week. First things first, though, we focus on the Atlantic low!
Brian
