Set the umbrella by the front door before you head to bed tonight as you'll need it through the day tomorrow!

Scattered rain arrives by early tomorrow morning especially for folks along the coast. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to move on shore through our Monday as the energy from a stalled frontal boundary to the south and a developing trough of low pressure combine to make for a rainy start to the workweek. Rainfall may be heavy at times so leave plenty of time for commuting about town as you will likely encounter slick spots and possibly ponding on the roadways for your evening drive home. Rain continues Monday night and into Tuesday as the trough moves across the state. Rain chances begin to decline into Tuesday evening. Total rainfall accumulations likely near 1 inch with 2+ inches possible locally.

Stay dry!
Lauren

Overnight, a stray light shower remains possible otherwise mostly cloudy with areas of patchy fog will prevail.

Low temperatures cooler for DeSoto and Charlotte counties tonight, in the mid 50's, as a shallow layer of cool air is able to slide south behind a cold front currently moving through the state. Expect more mild air to remain in place over Collier, where overnight lows will dip only into the low to mid 60s. With lows for Lee in the upper 50's to near 60 degrees. A light breeze stays with us at 10 mph.

Tomorrow morning, low clouds will dominate our sky due to a temperature inversion. By midday expect some sunshine across Lee...Charlotte and Desoto will see the most sunshine through the afternoon but mainly cloudy conditions will likely remain in place over Collier due to energy from the frontal boundary which will stall south of the peninsula. A few showers possible for tomorrow afternoon with the best chance in Collier where the most surface moisture will reside.

Isolated rain re-enters the forecast for all of SWFL Sunday night as the cold front returns and moves north as a warm front. Scattered rain on tap for Monday.

A cluster of thunderstorms now affecting Captiva and north end of Sanibel. Expect heavy rain, gusty winds, and dangerous lightning. Storms moving east and will affect Pine Island within the next 20 minutes.

A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving east from Gulf waters toward coastal Lee County. The line will move on shore within the next hour. Expect heavy rainfall, gusty winds and lightning to affect the area.

A line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms is approaching DeSoto and Charlotte counties.

--
Lauren Casey
Meteorologist
WINK-TV
(239) 338-4359

Scott: A tricky forecast into the weekend. A weak front will try to push thru the are late tomorrow, could see a few showers. But clouds and rain hang around for early next week.

Well a weak front arrives tomorrow late day. Breezy weather with highs in the 80's for your Saturday. Then the forecast gets a little tricky. You see the front stalls and gets hung up right over SWFL thru Tuesday. Clouds and a few showers will hang around Sunday as some slightly cooler weather pushes in, highs in the low 70's to upper 60's. Then I am thinking on Monday and Tuesday, a better chance of rain as a weak upper air disturbance moves overhead. The front will finally get out of here by Wednesday. Details starting at 5 on WINK!

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Brian: Warmer and more humid today -- highs near 80

High pressure has moved to the east allowing the wind to shift around to a more east and, eventually, southeast direction. This will allow the humidity to build and temps to warm today into the low 80's for parts of the area! A few more clouds today.. clouds increase tomorrow ahead of our next front, which should get here very early on Sunday morning. It still looks like the best chance of rain will hold off until after sunset on Saturday, although I can't rule out a stray shower or two well in advance of the front on Saturday afternoon the strong southwest flow.

 

The cold front will barely slip to our south on Sunday, leaving some clouds and showers around.. especially early. This front turns back aroundas a warm front early next week and gives us another chance of rain Monday and Tuesday!

 

Brian

Scott: Warmer tomorrow as a cold front moves into the Gulf! Temps in the low 80's! Cold front arrives late Saturday with rain.

The warmer weather has arrived just in time for your weekend. We should see many areas hitting the low 80's Friday! Breezy weather comes back Saturday afternoon ahead of a cold front that will try to push through early Sunday morning. The good news is that Saturday should be dry all the way through sunset. So you will be able to get those outdoor plans in. The bad news is that Sunday the front stalls a bit which means we could have a cloudy day with a few showers. We should see a little sun Sunday but expect slightly cooler conditions with a northerly breeze. The clouds and a few showers will hang around through the early part of next week as well. More sun by the end of next week. Details starting at 5 on WINK.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Brian: High pressure shifts east today.. warm up begins!

High pressure over north Florida this morning gave us the set-up this morning for one last cool start with many places falling into the 40's to near 50. Later today, the high shits east and so does our wind -- more of an east wind today -- which should lead to a couple of more low, fair weather clouds and temps in the mid 70's. Seasonably cool to start tomorrow morning (mid 50's) with afternoon temps in the upper 70's to near 80 as a warmer, more humid southeasterly flow develops. Rain should hold off now until late on Saturday with our next front, very warm and breezy with highs in the low 80's.

 

Brian

Jim - One More Cold Night

Just about as cold tonight as last night with lows in the 40's by sunrise.  Mostly sunny and a little warmer by the afternoon.  The next rain is still on track for late Saturday.

Brian: Chilly start this morning.. temps in the 40's.. into the low 70's later today

Plenty of sun again in the forecast for this afternoon with high pressure sitting across the southeast. Temperatures today will warm into the upper 60's to low 70's but, by tomorrow, as the high slides to the east a warming trend begins. We'll be in the mid to upper 70's tomorrow and near 80 degrees both Friday and Saturday. Still tracking rain for the weekend, the timing for the arrival of rain and storms looks to be late afternoon Saturday through very early Sunday morning. We should start the weekend Saturday morning with some sunshine, now. Over a half inch of rain is possible as the cold front comes through Saturday night into early on Sunday. Enjoy the beautiful late January weather today!

 

Brian

Scott: Another cold night ahead. We will stay above freezing, however 40's in our inland areas. Warmer weather on the way!

So next cold front is slowing a bit.  Looks like late Saturday into Sunday morning now.  You can expect rain moving in late in the evening Saturday but clearing out of here by Sunday!  Tonight, we will see those temperatures overnight to fall into the middle and upper 40's across most of the region, 50's at the beaches.  But warmer afternoons, highs are expected to get into the middle and lower 70's Wednesday and upper 70's if not 80's by Friday!  Enjoy. Detail on WINK starting at 5pm..

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

A Little Colder

Temperatures will run a few degrees colder tonight with the help of clear sky and a lighter wind.  Low 40's will be possible East of I-75.  A warming trend begins tomorrow afternoon.  It still looks like the next chance of rain will be late Saturday into overnight and very early Sunday. - Jim

Brian: Coldest air of the winter building in Canada.. but not headed toward SWFL!

The coldest air of the season (temps about 5000 feet above the ground -22 to -30 degrees Fahrenheit!!) is building right now across southern and central Canada and is poised to enter the United States later this week. Behind a potentially major snowstorm for portions of the Mid Atlantic states (DC, Baltimore, even Philly could see several inches of snow on Saturday), the arctic air will enter the Great Lakes and Northeast with frigid temps and gusty wind. But this time, the cold blast is not slated to push full force into the southeast. What's different this time compared to the early part of January?

 

Once again, there are a few ingredients for extra cold air to move into the US: low pressure south of Alaska, low pressure (polar vortex) moving south over central and southern Canada, and high pressure in the north Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland. All of these will be present this time and, in fact, the polar vortex will be even stronger this time. However, low pressure near the Aleutian Islands and high pressure near Greenland will be much, much weaker. The stronger these features are, the farther south the jet stream can dip -- thus allowing the cold air to flow south. With these features much weaker this time, though, the bitter cold air will only make it as far south as the Ohio Valley and the Mid Atlantic. Sure, we'll be a little cooler behind our front on Saturday (highs Sunday only in the upper 60's), but highs in the 40's and 50's? Not this time!

 

Brian

Brian: Clear sky with temps in the mid 60's now.. low 70's this afternoon

High pressure will control things for us over the next several days.. giving us a fine stretch of weather through the middle part of January's last week. With the high nearby, there are still a couple of cool mornings in the forecast (40's tomorrow morning, near 50 on Thursday morning) but warmer afternoons.. we'll be back in the low 70's again tomorrow, but mid to upper 70's for highs on Thursday.

 

By Friday, that high will slide to the east in advance of a developing storm across the western Gulf and the southern Plains. This will eventually usher in another cold front to southwest Florida, but not until late on Saturday... out ahead of it, temps will surge into the low 80's on Friday and mid to upper 70's Saturday with increasing clouds. We could see at least a half inch of rain in showers and storms on Saturday afternoon and evening. Behind this system, cooler and drier air arrives to finish the weekend on Sunday.

 

Brian

Colder Tonight!

25 degrees colder tonight with lows in the upper 40's by morning.  Sunny and cool in the afternoon. - Jim

--
Jim Farrell, CBM
Chief Meteorologist
WINK-TV
Ft. Myers, Fl. 33993
239-338-4368

Scott: Beautiful week ahead for SWFL! A few cold starts but warmer afternoons by Wednesday!

Tuesday and Wednesday we will start the day off in the 40's. By the afternoon temperatures should make it into the 70's. The next cold front arrives Saturday afternoon. Could see a few thunderstorms as this one passes though. We may see about an .50" on average! Enjoy your week! Details starting at 5 on WINK.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Brian: Slow clearing inland, rain is gone for today.. temps in the upper 60's to mid 70's

Brian: Heavy rain moving through coastal Lee now..

The heaviest of the rain now stretches from east of Arcadia and west of Lake Placid through eastern Charlotte County and into Fort Myers/Cape Coral/FMB. Still only a few light showers in south Lee & Collier Counties but more on the way a little later this morning. Doppler estimates are over 1.5" of rain in far NW DeSoto County with a general .25"+ falling around US-17 through DeSoto and Charlotte Counties. Lighter amounts in Lee so far, but it's been raining for less time there.

 

Still the possibility of some gusty wind in these showers/few storms.. gusts above 40 a possibility. We're on track for the line to clear through by mid to late morning.. and for a clearing trend this afternoon.

 

Brian

Brian: Rain, and a few storms, moving onshore in Charlotte County..

Out ahead of a strong cold front, a line of showers and storms stretches from near Jacksonville this morning through the Tampa area and just west of SWFL into the Gulf of Mexico. While severe weather is not a threat here, there is the possibility for a few thunderstorms this morning to have some strong wind gusts in them (maybe over 40 mph). Arrival time is right now (about 6 AM) in Charlotte County.. close to 8 AM in Lee County.. and close to 9:30 - 10 AM in Collier County. We'll clear out this afternoon behind the front.. but it will be windy, cooler, and much less humid. Should set the stage for a few nice days at mid-week! More later.. Brian

Scott: dense fog advisory until 9am! Sun returns Saturday afternoon!

Sent from Zed's iPhone

Scott: 80's for the weekend! next front arrives Monday afternoon!

Enjoy the weekend! The weak cold front will stall over swfl tonight. Not a big push of cold air behind the front so temperatures will fall into the 60's overnight. The afternoon highs will still get to the low 80's for tomorrow and Sunday.  Next front arrives Monday afternoon with better rain chances!

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Scott: Rain still in the forecast for Friday! Not a lot of rain expected, .10" to.25"! Details starting at 5!

A slow moving cold front will be moving into the area Friday morning. Expect to see a few more showers in DeSoto, Highlands, Glades and Charlotte Counties. Lee, Hendry and Collier County should see less rain. On average, we should get .10' to .25". After the front passes late Friday evening, there will not be a big cool down. In fact, looks like we will stay warm through the weekend with highs still in the 80's for both Saturday and Sunday. A stronger front pushes through Monday afternoon bringing more rain and even a few thunderstorms. Details on WINK TV!

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Brian: Much warmer this morning... 60's now, 80's this afternoon

Morning everyone!

 

Forecast on track from yesterday with a breezy, warm and humid day in today's forecast. Highs should reach the mid 70's in places like Sanibel, Capitva, and Marco Island while it's in the upper 70's to low 80's elsewhere. For tomorrow, a cold front will break apart across central Florida and we'll see just a couple of showers around, most places will stay dry. The weekend is warm and dry... lower humidity on Saturday and a cooler start, though (near 60). Next good chance of rain is on Monday with our next cold front, that one should bring at least a quarter inch of rain to most areas and then cooler weather for most of next week behind it.

 

Brian

Scott: Warmer and breezy tomorrow afternoon as highs get to the upper 70's and many low 80's. Rain still in the forecast for Friday AM!

We are watching the next cold front that will arrive to swfl Friday morning.  We are not expecting a lot of rain. May see a .10" or less as the front swings through. Slightly cooler weather for Saturday morning but this won't last. Wamer again Sunday before another front that arrives Monday afternoon. This one could bring us more rain. All the details tonight starting at 5pm.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Brian: Highs in the low to mid 70's today.. near 80 tomorrow

We'll still have a bit of a Gulf breeze to deal with along the coast today, but the fetch (distance the air travels over the Gulf before it reaches land) should not be as long as yesterday as the wind will be more southwesterly instead of westerly. Still though, that'll be enough to keep the immediate coast near 70 degrees while we get into the mid 70's inland. Not as cool tonight, some patchy fog by morning with lows in the upper 50's to near 60.

 

In advance of low pressure that will track well to our north, we'll get into the upper 70's and low 80's tomorrow. I still think our next low and the upper level energy with it will track so far to the north that our chance of rain is pretty limited on Friday, but there could be a few isolated showers. That system moves through tomorrow night and we end up with a nice weekend... highs in the upper 70's Saturday and low 80's on Sunday.

 

Next shot of cooler air (but not arctic cool!) looks to get here behind a cold front late Monday into Tuesday.

 

Brian

Brian: Another earthquake in Haiti this morning...

There was another earthquake this morning in Haiti, centered about 35 miles WSW of the devastated city of Port-Au-Prince. This aftershock of last Tuesday's 7.0 tremor was measured at a magnitude of 5.9 and a depth of 6.2 miles. While it was closer to the surface of the earth compared to last week's earthquake (remember, the more "shallow" the depth of an earthquake the higher the potential for significant damage), there have not been any reports of any significant additional damage to the area or loss of life.

 

By the way, the difference between last week's earthquake and this week's is not as simple as saying "it was 1 degree of magnitude weaker than last week's". Actually, this morning's earthquake was actually a bit more than 10 times weaker in shock amplitude compared to last week's. The Richter scale works on something known as a logarithmic (power of 10) scale... that means a 7.0 earthquake is ten times stronger than a 6.0 earthquake, and a 7.0 earthquake is forty times stronger than a 3.0 earthquake. Further, the difference in energy released between a 7.0 and a 6.0 earthquake is even more vast -- and the energy release is roughly equivalent to the damage you can expect. A difference in magnitude of just 1.0 makes the destructive power of a 7.0 earthquake approximately 32 times that of a 6.0 earthquake and a difference of 2.0 (say a 7.0 vs. a 5.0) is around 1000!

 

For more information, check out the US Geological Survey web site: http://www.usgs.gov.

 

Brian

Scott: Another cool start across the area, however afternoon temps back into the 70's!

Warmer weather for the next few days. Afternoon highs will approach the upper 70's. The next cold front moves into the area by Friday morning. Might see a few showers as the front passes by. Most of the energy with this one will stay well north of the region. This means we will not have that much in the way of rain. .25" or less. The weekend is looking good too. Highs in the upper 70's to low 80's with a partly cloudy sky!

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Brian: A cooler start this morning w/some patchy fog..

Temps are starting in the 40's and 50's this morning. With high pressure nearby, the wind is light and the humidity is near 100% giving us some areas of haze and fog this morning. These should burn off in the next hour or two giving us a mix of high clouds & sun today. Gulf breeze should kick in along the coast today keeping temps there in the low 70's while inland temps climb toward the mid (if not upper in a few spots) 70's.

 

Everyone well into the 70's tomorrow with the wind shifting around to the east and eventually southeast. We should push into the 80's for Thursday and Friday with just a slight chance of a few showers as low pressure tracks well north of Florida.

 

Brian

Brian: Quiet weather next few days...

With high pressure in control and no major weather systems developing, our weather will be pretty quiet for the next few days. Highs today and tomorrow will get into the low to mid 70's with a partly cloudy sky. Watch out for some fog tomorrow morning and Wednesday morning though as the humidity approaches 100% and the wind is light in the overnight periods.

 

It will turn more humid and warmer for Wednesday into the end of the week out ahead of a low pressure system that will track well to the north of Florida. It now appears that our rain chances are pretty slim late Thursday night into early Friday, in fact, in the noon newscast I have completely dropped the chance of rain for Thursday. We may get a shower or two in the early hours of Friday.

 

Enjoy the quiet weather!

 

Brian

Brian: Light wind this morning allowing patchy haze/fog to form.. gone by 9

Brian: Line breaking up... severe threat basically done with..

Just a quick update before our late newscast.. as mentioned earlier, the more stable air near the coast is taking its toll in the line of storms. We'll still get a few areas of heavy rain overnight as the line comes through and a stronger wind gust or two in a storm, but that's about it. Severe weather now no longer a real threat to SWFL. Slowly clearing tomorrow, highs in the low to mid 70's except upper 60's near the beaches with an onshore wind.

 

Brian

Brian: Line of strong to svr storms building out in the Gulf of Mexico...

A line of storms that have been borderline severe (at least by their appearance on radar, some have been rotating -- rotating thunderstorms can produce tornadoes) is still well offshore SWFL this evening; with heavy rain now falling through parts of the Tampa area. The line is still at least 3 hours from coming onshore in Sarasota and Charlotte Counties and it wont be until closer to 12:30 - 1 AM before the line arrives in Lee County.

 

Right now, the storms are being fueled by a very unstable lower atmosphere over the Gulf. Water temps were the line is are still fairly warm and this is allowing them to maintain their strength. However, over the next couple of hours as the line approaches the coast, I expect it to weaken some as it encounters a more stable low level atmosphere over the far eastern Gulf because of cooler than average water temps (still in the low 60's at the Naples pier from the recent historic cold snap). That, coupled with a low level atmosphere that is only a little unstable over land should lead to the line weakening significantly as it approaches the coast.

 

That said, one or two storms overnight still could be strong, borderline severe, because of very strong low level wind (50 mph+ only a mile above the ground). I'll continue to watch things for you tonight!

 

Brian

Brian: Line of storms well offshore in the Gulf..

I'm watching a line of potentially strong to severe storms now moving through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. These are now located a few hundred miles offshore and are moving very quicky toward the NNE. The Storm Prediction Center has southwest Florida under a slight risk for severe weather overnight tonight, with the possibility of damaging wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado. It is possible we will be under a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch at some point tonight, I'll keep you updated.

 

We got enough sun today and enough moisture has returned to the atmosphere to make things unstable enough for a few stronger storms. The line should arrive well after midnight though, probably close to 2 AM in the northern part of the area. More later..

 

Brian

Weekend Cold Front

Clouds but warm Saturday. Rain Sunday morning then cooler Sunday
night. - Jim

Sent from my iPhone

Brian: Warm & mainly dry on Saturday.. highs near 80!

Quick update on the timing of the cold front expected in southwest Florida this weekend. It now looks like it won't arrive until close to daybreak on Sunday which means the rain chances now are pushd off until after midnight Sunday. We are still watching the possibility for some gusty thunderstorms in this line as it moves through the area. It does look, though, that most of the strong upper level support will pass to our north through north Florida and south Georgia, where the highest chance of strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be. We'll keep watching it this weekend for you though!

 

Brian

Brian: Temps pushing through the mid 70's now & partly cloudy...

Brian: A warmer start this morning... seasonable.. temps in 50s for the most part

It should be a beautiful day today across southwest Florida, finally! Becoming more breezy this afternoon and more humid, but nice and warm with highs in the mid to upper 70's. There will be enough of an easterly breeze today to really limit the afternoon Gulf breeze but, because of the chilly water nearby, I still think we'll be able to hold temps down into the low to mid 70's today for places like Sanibel, Captiva, FMB, and Marco Island.

 

For tomorrow, a warm front pushes through central FL early in the morning and there is the slightest chance of a stray shower for us near dawn. After that, it should turn breezy and very warm as temperatures just 5,000 feet above the ground (again, a level we look at as a guide for surface high temps) shoot to near 60 degrees! That would support highs tomorrow in the lower 80's. It will turn pretty humid though by the afternoon ahead of strong low pressure in the Gulf.

 

It looks like that strong low will effect us in the form of a cold front after midnight Saturday into the first half of the day on Sunday. This means we should get by with a dry day on Saturday for the most part. The setup still looks pretty good for some areas of heavy rain with a line of showers/storms Sunday morning with many areas seeing at least a half inch of rain and probably an inch. Looking at the forecast models, it still seems quite possible that we will have a couple of strong storms, possibly pushing severe limits with the wind about 5,000 feet above the ground racing out of the southwest at over 50 mph. Also, it now seems enough moisture will return to the atmosphere to make things unstable enough to produce a few stronger storms... the one thing working against severe weather though might be the timing of the cold front. Instead of an aternoon passage which would maximize instability it will be coming through early in the morning.

 

Biggest threat in storms will be very strong wind gusts above at least 40 mph. We'll continue to watch the potential for severe storms Sunday morning but, for now, plan on at least some heavy rain and the possibility for a gustier t-storm or two.

 

Brian

Scott: Beautiful evening across the area. Warmer weather tomorrow as well. Highs in the upper 70's!

Warmer weather for your Friday. I am keeping a eye on a low pressure that is developing in the gulf tomorrow.  By the weekend, we will see the clouds and wind will increase and it looks like storms are in the forecast for late Saturday into Sunday. Right now I am thinking we will see about an inch in some locations.  Also the potential is there to see some strong to severe storms. The good news is the timing is in the overnight period, so i hope it won't ruin your outdoor activities.

--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Brian: Strong low pressure will form in Gulf later today/tonight

A strong area of low pressure in the upper levels is moving through the southwest part of the country this morning and is about to become a big player in our weather as we go toward the weekend. Out ahead of this system, the atmosphere will really start to warm. Today, we'll get into the mid to upper 60's along the beaches with a Gulf breeze while inland temps push toward the low 70's. For tomorrow, it should turn pretty breezy in the afternoon and that easterly to southeasterly wind will be strong enough to prevent the Gulf breeze from forming. That means for the first time since last Friday, temps even at the beaches will get into the 70's tomorrow!

 

As low pressure intensifies in the Gulf Saturday, it should become even windier to start the weekend. We may start Saturday morning with a stray shower or two as a warm front pushes across Florida.. but the daylight hours on Saturday should be mainly dry and very warm. Temps should get close to 80 in many spots!

 

Low pressure will move toward the Big Bend of FL Saturday night and drag a cold front through southwest Florida near midnight and into the early hours of Sunday morning. At this point, it seems very likely we will see quite a bit of rain with this system (most areas of at least 3/4" - 1" of rain) and it's also possible there could be some strong storms. About 5,000 feet above the ground, there will be what we call a very strong low level jet stream (wind there will be around 50 mph from the southwest!). At the ground, the wind will be from the southeast.. this creates wind shear -- a twisting/turning motion with height in the atmosphere... which can often lead to severe weather if the atmosphere is unstable enough. That will be the question. It's been so cold, so dry for so long that it's questionable if enough moisture will return to the atmosphere to give us a chance of severe weather. That's a question we'll answer over the next day or so. At the very least, though, there will be some heavy rain very late Saturday night/early Sunday with the front and possibly some thunderstorms -- and a couple of those could be strong.

 

No arctic front here either, folks! Behind the front Sunday, we clear out with highs in the low 70's and 70's in the forecast for next week!

 

Brian

Brian: Temps starting will above frzng everywhere this morning... 60's to near 70 later today @ coast!

Brush Fires

Very low humidity has prompted a Red Flag Warning. A few small brush
fires have started today. Humidity will increase into the weekend. -
Jim

Sent from my iPhone

Scott: well the warmer weather is returning to swfl! Some patchy inland frost overnight, but highs back in the 70s!

With the warming trend here we should see afternoon highs back in the
70s again! Some inland areas may see some patch frost as temperatures
fall into the mid 30s overnight. Warm and breezy weather returns for
Saturday ahead of the cold front. We could see as much as .75" of rain
saturday night into Sunday. Good news is behind this front we can
expect cooler weather but not colder weather. Lows only falling into
the 50s. More details at 5 on WINK!

Sent from Zed's iPhone

Brian: Still cold, but not as cold this morning.. near freezing inland, 40's at coast

By this afternoon, we'll warm up into the mid, if not upper, 60's across parts of inland southwest Florida and the low 60's right along the beaches. One more day tomorrow of the afternoon Gulf breeze will keep the coast in the mid 60's to upper 60's tomorrow while we get into the 70's inland. Much warmer for Friday and breezy with highs moving into the mid to upper 70's. This will be in advance of a strong area of low pressure developing out in the western Gulf. This low will bring rain and storms to SWFL on Saturday night. If enough moisture returns to the area, there is a chance a couple of those storms could be strong Saturday night as there will be a very strong jet stream overhead.

 

Brian

Scott: not as cold tonight, still a pocket of some 30s inland. By the afterrnoon mid 60s!

The warming trend as begun! May see some patchy frost in the morning,
mainly in our inland locations! But once the Florida sun starts
working we will see highs in the mid to upper 60s inland. At the coast
it could be slightly cooler due to the water temperature being in the
middle 50s. There might be a hint of a gulf breeze the next few days
which will keep the beaches in the low 60s tomorrow and the upper 60s
by Thursday. The next cold front will arrive late Saturday into Sunday
morning. Breezy weather followed by rain and a few thunderstorms
likely then! Could see a half inch or more in some locations!! The
good news is that behind this front not near as cold!!

Sent from Zed's iPhone

Brian: Temps rebounding into the mid 50's now.. Gulf Brz should kick in soon though..

Not Quite As Cold

It's still cold this morning, but not quite as cold as yesterday. We will have a few spots inland that will flirt with a hard freeze this morning (it's 26 now in Arcadia), but most places inland should avoid that 4 hour period of temps at or below 28 degrees. Along the coast, temps are milder this morning, running 2-4 degrees warmer this morning compared to this time yesterday west of US 41. No records this morning.

 

Frost will likely be more of a problem over the next couple of hours as there's more moisture in the air this morning and the wind is a bit lighter than yesterday. For this afternoon, unbelievably, we will get a Gulf breeze to kick in like yesterday which should keep the beaches in the upper 50's while inland we make it into the low 60's. Just so unusual to get a Gulf breeze with air temperatures reaching only around 60. What gives? Usually the difference between the over land air temperature and the Gulf temperature has to be 6-8 degrees to force the wind to turn more off of the Gulf. Well, with the Gulf in the upper 40's to low 50's (wow!), the difference in temp will be on the order of 10 degrees.. more than enough to let the sea breeze kick in. Same pattern for Wednesday & Thursday.

 

Brian

Scott: cold again tonight with inland freezing temperatures again.

Slightly warmer tonight but still below freezing in many inland areas.
A gradual warming trend in the seven day after a stretch of very cold
weather. We had 4 consecutive days with high temperatures below 60
degrees this month. The longest was 5 days back in 1977! We had 4
consecutive days of low temperatures below 40 degrees this month too.
The longest was 6 days back in 1962. That is what you would call a
cold spell! Lots of sun for the next few days will get us into the low
70s by Thursday afternoon..

Sent from Zed's iPhone

Not As Cold Tonight

I included just a few of the many, many pictures we've gotten from viewers this morning of the cold weather scenes across southwest Florida. So far, the coldest temperature reported to us is from our Weather Watcher in Arcadia, Russ Perkins -- 23 degrees! Keep those pictures coming to weather@winktv.com, I'll have a few more to show during today's noon newscast and Scott will have more to show you this evening.

 

Frost was not a widespread problem this morning because the air was fairly dry and the wind stayed up in the 5-10 mph range. Tomorrow morning, though, there likely will be even more widespread frost as the wind goes calm. Temperatures though, with the atmosphere moderating at the same time and the chance of some high clouds overhead, likely will not be as cold -- ranging from the upper 20's inland to the upper 30's to near 40 along the Lee Island Coast.

 

A slow and steady warmup from here. By the end of the week, we should be in the low 70's and pushing toward the upper 70's on Saturday as a very strong, cut-off area of low pressure moves across the western Gulf. That system will be one to watch for Saturday night. Out ahead of it, we'll get into the upper 70's Saturday afternoon with much more humid conditions... could be a fairly widespread rain on Saturday night and possibly even some thunderstorms, maybe a strong one. Lots of time to watch that next system though.

 

Brian

--
Brian Monahan
AM/Noon Meteorologist
WINK-TV
(239) 338-4369, brian.monahan@winktv.com

Morning Lows So Far

Clear sky, dry air and a relatively light wind all got together this morning to give us near record and record lows this morning. In fact, to our north, we had temps in the mid teens this morning in parts of the Panhandle and north Florida! Some local numbers that are just rolling in...

 

Arcadia - 25

Palmdale - 25

Clewiston - 25

LaBelle - 26

Lake Placid - 26

Lehigh Acres - 28

Golden Gate - 28

Fort Myers - 31 (Record)

Sanibel - 33

San Carlos Park - 34

 

We'll rebound into the mid to upper 50's this afternoon as the atmosphere begins to warm. Clear sky and high pressure nearby again tonight will give us another cold start tomorrow morning... in the upper 20's inland to the mid 30's along the coast. We should not see a hard freeze tomorrow inland. Some of our models even are indicating the possibility of a few high clouds overhead tonight which would also help keep us a bit warmer.

 

Brian

--
Brian Monahan
AM/Noon Meteorologist
WINK-TV
(239) 338-4369, brian.monahan@winktv.com

Brian: Temps starting to rebound now after lows in the 20's & low 30's... lots of sun, 57 today

--
Brian Monahan
AM/Noon Meteorologist
WINK-TV
(239) 338-4369, brian.monahan@winktv.com

Hard Freeze Inland

Morning everyone,

 

A hard freeze continues this morning across inland Southwest Florida. As of 6 AM, most areas east of I-75 are in the 20's, with temperatures as low as the mid 20's for parts of Highlands, Glades, and Hendry Counties. The duration of the cold is most important though and there's some bad news there -- in Palmdale and Immokalee, for example, the temperature has been below freezing since about midnight and at or below 28 degrees since around 3 AM. Why is 28 degrees so important? We consider 28 degrees or lower for 4 or more hours to be potentially very damaging to the citrus crop and we have seen, already, 3+ hours of temperatures at or below 28 degrees in the citrus growing areas up and down the US-27 corridor through Glades and Highlands counties.

 

By the way, there is a wind chill advisory along the coast this morning and a wind chill warning inland this morning for wind chills that, at times, will feel like they're in the upper teens to near 20!

 

Brian

Brian: New Rrecord low in Fort Myers.. 31.. old record 32 set in 1959

Record Low Tonight

Near 30 Ft. Myers, 31 Naples, 26 Port Charlotte tonight. Mid 20's
inland and north. -Jim

Sent from my iPhone

Colder Tonight

33 degrees this morning Ft. Myers, 35 degrees this morning Naples.  Expecting colder temperatures tonight. - Jim

Freeze Warning: Record Lows are 32 degrees next two mornings, new records possible tomorrow and Monday morning. 70 degrees by Thurs. - Jim

Ice Pellets in Punta Gorda...

As the temperatures continue to crash aloft, we have our first report of UP or "unknown precipitation" at the Charlotte Regional Airport:

KPGD 091918Z AUTO 35009KT 10SM UP BKN012 OVC025 03/02 A3020 RMK AO2 RAE12UPB12 P0001

That's an official observation from Punta Gorda. It's in the upper 30's there with a north wind at about 12 mph... cold stuff! Other parts of the area also could have some ice pellets and perhaps even a wet snowflake mixed in as the temperatures continue to cool. It is going to turn into a race against the clock though later tonight as dry air quickly moves in. Either way, though, at least a part of the area now has had some very unusual wintry precipitation!

Brian

Sleet Mixing In..

The air is getting cold enough for ice pellets/sleet to be mixing in for a few spots this morning. The air is approaching 32 degrees about 2500 feet above the ground and is getting cooler as heavier precip falls over areas that are not quite yet saturated (when precip evaporates, it cools the air to saturation -- humidity of 100%). As of 1130 AM, "unidentified precipitation," likely sleet, was being reported at Okeechobee. Watch the radar closely over the next hour or two. Anytime you see a pocket of yellow moving over an area from Lee/Hendry Counties northward... there is a chance that a few sleet pellets could be mixed in! Stay warm!

Scott: the cold front is through swfl! Temps will start falling by daybreak. Low 40s!

Everybody keeps talking about snow! Well by the time the cold air
settles in the moisture will be gone! Sorry swfl, no snow Saturday
with highs in the 40s! Record cold for Sunday and Monday! We should
start a warming trend by Wednesday! Stay warm and have a great
weekend! Talk Monday!

Sent from Zed's iPhone

Scott: cold weekend weather again! Highs tomorrow in the 40s. What?

A blast of artic air is moving down the east coast. The cold front is
moving through tonight with a few showers. Temperatures Saturday only
in the upper 40s! That's cold! Sunday and Monday morning overnights
lows will be close to breaking records. Low 30s! Record low Sunday
morning 32 in 1970. Record low Monday morning is 32 in 1952! We are
forecasting low 30s for Ft. Myers! Freeze warnings will be issued for
Sunday and Monday morning because of this! Warmer by Wednesday
afternoon! Stay warm and join me at 7,10 & 11 for details.

Sent from Zed's iPhone

Enjoy tomorrow! Saturday will be a cold day.....40's for highs.

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Are you kidding me?

Not as cold tonight, but Saturday is going to be an "UGH!!!" day....Breezy with highs in the 40's!

Near 32 again Sunday and Monday mornings - Jim Farrell

Scott: Next cold front arrives tomorrow night! Cold again!

There will another blast of cold air that arrives Saturday morning.
We could see a few showers ahead of the front Friday night into
Saturday! High temperature Saturday afternoon will only get into the
upper 40s! No snow folks. The air will be to warm for that and by the
time the extra cold air arrives Sunday morning there will be no
moisture to work with! With the cold weather in place, cold mornings
again through Monday morning! Temperatures in town will be in the low
30s, freezing inland for sure. Warmer weather returns Wednesday
afternoon!!

Sent from Zed's iPhone

Great Explainer Graphic in the News Press

If you get a chance, pick a copy of the News-Press today. They put together a great graphic explaining why it's so cold and why it's been so cold for so long. We showed a similar graphic on the air the past couple of mornings. I know sometimes our graphics go very quickly and you don't get a chance to really digest them -- so this morning's News Press is a great chance to do just that. Enjoy the "warm up!"

 

Brian

Brian: Low of 24 overnight in Palmdale.. record breaker of 38 in Fort Myers.. 40s at coast

Warmer.. and then the Bottom Drops Out!

Temperatures this morning are starting in the upper 20's and 30's for most of us this morning. It is a bit warmer along the coast and well south of the Caloosahatchee this morning because of some high clouds that moved in over night. Once again though, we are getting reports/pictures of frost across southwest Florida and a frigid morning low temperature report of just 24 in Palmdale (colder than last night!). So the remarkable streak of cold weather continues across the area.. but there's a breaking coming.

 

It's brief, but later today ahead of our next arctic cold front we will start to warm. This morning it's in the 50's in Houston just ahead of that front.. tomorrow morning, we'll start in the 40's for most of the area. By tomorrow afternoon, with morning sun giving way to increasing clouds, the temperature at 2500 feet climbs to almost 13 degrees celsius (or about 56 degrees). In this pattern, we should be able to add about 6-9 degrees celsius to that to get our temperatures at the surface.. that puts us in the mid to upper 60's for highs with some areas possible touching the 70 degree mark for the first time since New Year's Day. Then we head back down the roller coaster.

 

The arctic front comes through Saturday morning. We'll hit our highs for the day early with pre-dawn temps in the mid 50's... throughout the afternoon, a strong northwest wind will keep lots of clouds around, isolated rain.. and keep the temperature tumbling. We'll spend the afternoon in the 40's! Saturday night is a very tricky forecast. Whenever you get cold air over the warmer (relatively) water of the Gulf, clouds and possibly light precip are the result. Most of our models now say the wind will be more northerly Saturday night which should allow us to clear out and send us toward a hard freeze (especially inland) on Sunday morning. However, if the wind stays more northwest, the clouds and light rain chances stay locked in, mainly along the coast.

 

And that's the tricky part. Temperatures at 5000 feet will drop well below 32 Saturday night (in the ballpark of 25 or so), and temperatures just 2500 feet above the ground will drop to around 28. Believe it or not, if precip falls on Saturday night the precip type in west-central Florida and maybe even here into southwest Florida could be a tricky call. In all likelihood anything that falls is rain, but there is the slimmest of chances that there could be a flake or two in a couple of spots if there is precip on Saturday night. It has happened before, in January 1977 (Tampa area).

 

Sunny sky for Sunday it stays cold though.. with highs in the 40's to near 50! The warm up begins on Monday after a hard freeze in the morning.. by Wednesday we're back to near 70! Stay warm!

 

Brian

Brian: High clouds keeping temps up in spots this morning.. inland 20's though

Brian: New record low @ Fort Myers... 39. Old record 40 set in 2001

Temperatures are within one or two degrees of where they were last night at this time.

We are still on track for record cold temperatures for the second night in a row.  It will NOT be as cold tomorrow afternoon with highs in the 60's, but Saturday is shaping up to be a VERY raw day....highs in the 50's with wind, a shower and no sun. - Jim Farrell

Brrrr tonight

Overnight lows tonight will be dropping in the 30s close to the coast
tonight. How about upper 20s in La Belle and Arcadia and surrounding
areas! Widespread frost will develop once again. Take precautions with
your plants and pets. By the afternoon, highs will make there way into
the low 60s! The "warmest" in six days. Rain returns by Friday ahead
of the next cold front. But then another cold weekend ahead. Sundays
lows fall into the low 30s again. A warming trend will start Monday
afternoon. Stay warm!

Sent from Zed's iPhone

Jim - Just as cold tonight with more frost.

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Frost

Frost & even some ice on tree branches reported this morning in the Golden Gate Estates area. Widespread frost reported in southwest Florida this morning and a hard freeze (4 hours or more of temps at or below 28 degrees) for parts of eastern DeSoto/Charlotte/Lee/Collier Counties as well as Highlands, Hendry and Glades. We'll see later on this morning what kind of damage there might have been the citrus crop, particularly in Highlands & Glades.

 

The atmosphere will be warming up in advance of our next arctic cold front over the next couple of days. Tonight, though, we get another extra cold night with high pressure located over north and central Florida. The sky will be clear, the wind light, and the air dry.. exactly the mix needed for another night of freezing temps. In fact, with the high centered over Florida, tonight might even be colder for some.. with the freezing line possibly getting close to the beach communities tonight!

 

Briefly we'll rebound into the mid 60's (even upper 60's in a couple of spots possible tomorrow) before the next front moves through on Friday. To forecast highs, we often look at the temperature about 5000 feet above the ground; over the weekend, that temperature will likely be near freezing on Saturday and several degrees below freezing on Sunday (almost unheard of). It's possible with air that cold aloft, many spots may not get out of the 40's and low 50's for highs even with ample sunshine on Sunday. Cold stuff!

 

Brian

 

 

Brian: That 35 in Naples this morning ties the record set in 1999...

 

Brian: Low in Naples of 35 this morning...

--
Brian Monahan
AM/Noon Meteorologist

Brian: Official report out from Fort Myers.. low of 34 is a new record.

--
Brian Monahan
AM/Noon Meteorologist

Brian: Hard freeze happening now in patrs of Glades & Highlands

 

Frost @ 37 Degrees?

We got a great question this morning from Tom in Cape Coral:

 

I live on SE Cape Coral and there is frost all over my yard and vehicles, but you are still reporting it is 36 degrees. I thought it took a temperature of 32 degrees to freeze?

 

And Tom is absolutely right, it does take a temperature of 32 degrees for water to freeze. But where that temperature is 32 is key. As you may know, the air temperature can vary significantly over a fairly shallow depth of the atmosphere. On a very cold morning like this, the reported air temperature (usually measured at 6 feet above ground level) might be 36 BUT, close to the ground the temperature is often several degrees lower. In this case, the formation of frost indicates that the temperature of the surfaces on which frost is forming (like blades of grass or a car's wind shield) are below freezing... even though the temperature just a few feet above the ground is a few degrees above freezing.

 

Great question!

 

Brian

Brian: Record low has fallen @ Ft. Myers... 35.. old: 36 (1956).. broken @ 5am

--
Brian Monahan

Scattered frost forming now in the coldest spots - Jim

About 5 degrees colder tonight!

Brian: Freeze watch tomorrow night all but Lee County... hard freeze/frost possible on Thursday morning.