It should be a beautiful day today across southwest Florida, finally! Becoming more breezy this afternoon and more humid, but nice and warm with highs in the mid to upper 70's. There will be enough of an easterly breeze today to really limit the afternoon Gulf breeze but, because of the chilly water nearby, I still think we'll be able to hold temps down into the low to mid 70's today for places like Sanibel, Captiva, FMB, and Marco Island.
For tomorrow, a warm front pushes through central FL early in the morning and there is the slightest chance of a stray shower for us near dawn. After that, it should turn breezy and very warm as temperatures just 5,000 feet above the ground (again, a level we look at as a guide for surface high temps) shoot to near 60 degrees! That would support highs tomorrow in the lower 80's. It will turn pretty humid though by the afternoon ahead of strong low pressure in the Gulf.
It looks like that strong low will effect us in the form of a cold front after midnight Saturday into the first half of the day on Sunday. This means we should get by with a dry day on Saturday for the most part. The setup still looks pretty good for some areas of heavy rain with a line of showers/storms Sunday morning with many areas seeing at least a half inch of rain and probably an inch. Looking at the forecast models, it still seems quite possible that we will have a couple of strong storms, possibly pushing severe limits with the wind about 5,000 feet above the ground racing out of the southwest at over 50 mph. Also, it now seems enough moisture will return to the atmosphere to make things unstable enough to produce a few stronger storms... the one thing working against severe weather though might be the timing of the cold front. Instead of an aternoon passage which would maximize instability it will be coming through early in the morning.
Biggest threat in storms will be very strong wind gusts above at least 40 mph. We'll continue to watch the potential for severe storms Sunday morning but, for now, plan on at least some heavy rain and the possibility for a gustier t-storm or two.
Brian
