Temperatures this morning are starting in the upper 20's and 30's for most of us this morning. It is a bit warmer along the coast and well south of the Caloosahatchee this morning because of some high clouds that moved in over night. Once again though, we are getting reports/pictures of frost across southwest Florida and a frigid morning low temperature report of just 24 in Palmdale (colder than last night!). So the remarkable streak of cold weather continues across the area.. but there's a breaking coming.
It's brief, but later today ahead of our next arctic cold front we will start to warm. This morning it's in the 50's in Houston just ahead of that front.. tomorrow morning, we'll start in the 40's for most of the area. By tomorrow afternoon, with morning sun giving way to increasing clouds, the temperature at 2500 feet climbs to almost 13 degrees celsius (or about 56 degrees). In this pattern, we should be able to add about 6-9 degrees celsius to that to get our temperatures at the surface.. that puts us in the mid to upper 60's for highs with some areas possible touching the 70 degree mark for the first time since New Year's Day. Then we head back down the roller coaster.
The arctic front comes through Saturday morning. We'll hit our highs for the day early with pre-dawn temps in the mid 50's... throughout the afternoon, a strong northwest wind will keep lots of clouds around, isolated rain.. and keep the temperature tumbling. We'll spend the afternoon in the 40's! Saturday night is a very tricky forecast. Whenever you get cold air over the warmer (relatively) water of the Gulf, clouds and possibly light precip are the result. Most of our models now say the wind will be more northerly Saturday night which should allow us to clear out and send us toward a hard freeze (especially inland) on Sunday morning. However, if the wind stays more northwest, the clouds and light rain chances stay locked in, mainly along the coast.
And that's the tricky part. Temperatures at 5000 feet will drop well below 32 Saturday night (in the ballpark of 25 or so), and temperatures just 2500 feet above the ground will drop to around 28. Believe it or not, if precip falls on Saturday night the precip type in west-central Florida and maybe even here into southwest Florida could be a tricky call. In all likelihood anything that falls is rain, but there is the slimmest of chances that there could be a flake or two in a couple of spots if there is precip on Saturday night. It has happened before, in January 1977 (Tampa area).
Sunny sky for Sunday it stays cold though.. with highs in the 40's to near 50! The warm up begins on Monday after a hard freeze in the morning.. by Wednesday we're back to near 70! Stay warm!
Brian
