A strong area of low pressure in the upper levels is moving through the southwest part of the country this morning and is about to become a big player in our weather as we go toward the weekend. Out ahead of this system, the atmosphere will really start to warm. Today, we'll get into the mid to upper 60's along the beaches with a Gulf breeze while inland temps push toward the low 70's. For tomorrow, it should turn pretty breezy in the afternoon and that easterly to southeasterly wind will be strong enough to prevent the Gulf breeze from forming. That means for the first time since last Friday, temps even at the beaches will get into the 70's tomorrow!
As low pressure intensifies in the Gulf Saturday, it should become even windier to start the weekend. We may start Saturday morning with a stray shower or two as a warm front pushes across Florida.. but the daylight hours on Saturday should be mainly dry and very warm. Temps should get close to 80 in many spots!
Low pressure will move toward the Big Bend of FL Saturday night and drag a cold front through southwest Florida near midnight and into the early hours of Sunday morning. At this point, it seems very likely we will see quite a bit of rain with this system (most areas of at least 3/4" - 1" of rain) and it's also possible there could be some strong storms. About 5,000 feet above the ground, there will be what we call a very strong low level jet stream (wind there will be around 50 mph from the southwest!). At the ground, the wind will be from the southeast.. this creates wind shear -- a twisting/turning motion with height in the atmosphere... which can often lead to severe weather if the atmosphere is unstable enough. That will be the question. It's been so cold, so dry for so long that it's questionable if enough moisture will return to the atmosphere to give us a chance of severe weather. That's a question we'll answer over the next day or so. At the very least, though, there will be some heavy rain very late Saturday night/early Sunday with the front and possibly some thunderstorms -- and a couple of those could be strong.
No arctic front here either, folks! Behind the front Sunday, we clear out with highs in the low 70's and 70's in the forecast for next week!
Brian
