A line of storms that have been borderline severe (at least by their appearance on radar, some have been rotating -- rotating thunderstorms can produce tornadoes) is still well offshore SWFL this evening; with heavy rain now falling through parts of the Tampa area. The line is still at least 3 hours from coming onshore in Sarasota and Charlotte Counties and it wont be until closer to 12:30 - 1 AM before the line arrives in Lee County.
Right now, the storms are being fueled by a very unstable lower atmosphere over the Gulf. Water temps were the line is are still fairly warm and this is allowing them to maintain their strength. However, over the next couple of hours as the line approaches the coast, I expect it to weaken some as it encounters a more stable low level atmosphere over the far eastern Gulf because of cooler than average water temps (still in the low 60's at the Naples pier from the recent historic cold snap). That, coupled with a low level atmosphere that is only a little unstable over land should lead to the line weakening significantly as it approaches the coast.
That said, one or two storms overnight still could be strong, borderline severe, because of very strong low level wind (50 mph+ only a mile above the ground). I'll continue to watch things for you tonight!
Brian
