A little later this morning I'll be on Daybreak with Trey Radel on 92.5 Fox News Radio (during the 8 am hour) to talk about what impact (if any) the oil slick could have on a hurricane and vice-versa. At this point, this is still very much an open question and, in my opinion, the larger concern is what a impact a hurricane would have on the foot print of the oil slick -- assuming the site of the Deepwater Horizon rig explosion is still spewing oil into the Gulf as a storm develops nearby or tracks over the foot print (while the flow has been stemmed somewhat by recent operations, it is still possible it could be many weeks before the oil spill is fully contained).
The greatest concern would have to do with storm surge. Let's assume a hypothetical storm hits New Orleans and is strong enough to produce a substantial storm surge. This would create onshore wind over the oil slick (from south to north), likely taking much of the oil inland with the surge. How far inland? Researchers are attempting to answer this question now but, in any event, it would not be a good situation for the coast of eastern Lousiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. On the reverse side, a storm coming in east of the oil slick would likely send oil southbound into the Gulf... directly into the Gulf loop current. Ultimately, this oil would have no other option than to head into the Florida Straits, along the Keys, and up along the east coast of Florida. Either way, a landfalling hurricane in the northern Gulf is likely a bad proposition with respect to the oil spill.
What about hurricane or tropical storm development over the slick? The impact would likely be far greater on a developing storm rather than a fully mature storm. To get a tropical cylone to form, you need a supply of warm, deep water (evaporation into the atmosphere.. provides the moisture for the storm). The oil on the surface of the Gulf would likely slow the rate of evaporation thus depriving a tropical cyclone of some of this much-needed moisture. Now, that said, the odds of a significant system developing that close to land is very slim (honestly, almost zero).. anything that develops in this area would likely be weak anyway. In the event of a developed, mature storm moving across the oil slick -- there could be some minimal weakening over the oil slick as the rate of evaporation is reduced.. the extent of the weakening would likely depend on the amount of time the storm spent over the slick (slow moving vs. fast moving storm).
Brian
