Brian: INVEST 93L becoming more organized... medium chance of development...

The National Hurricane Center has now upgraded the possibility of development of the wave in the eastern Caribbean to medium over the next 48 hours (INVEST 93L). This system is located underneath very weak wind shear (less than 10 knots) and over warm water.. although not quite as deep, warm water as is located to its northwest near Jamaica and Cuba. The new forecast models coming in do show some organization with this system as it tracks to the west and eventually northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula of eastern Mexico later this week. In the short term, the Gulf of Mexico remains blocked by a strong ridge of high pressure that's centered over the lower Mississippi River Valley. This ridge is forecast to weaken some later this week, potentially opening up the southern Gulf for tropical moisture. Scott and I will have more on this and your week's forecast coming up tonight at 5.

Brian