Good evening! I'm about to show a graphic coming up on WINK at 7 pm that shows some of the forecast factors (or better yet, limiting factors) in the development of TD1, likely soon to be Alex. It's very close to the Honduras coast right now and will only spend another 36 hours or so over water before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula. Granted, this will be a trip across very warm water with relatively light wind shear (for now), but I don't expect this to become more than a minimal tropical storm before reaching the Yucatan.
Beyond that, a lot will depend on how this storm looks when it leaves the Yucatan late in the weekend. The wind shear is forecast to be weak to moderate depending on which model you look at for next week across the Gulf. To complicate matters, high pressure that has been baking the south over the last several days is forecast to weaken and split as a trough of low pressure digs into the southeast. If this trough is strong, it will have the potential to bring tropical moisture (perhaps a storm) more toward the northern Gulf coast.. a weaker trough would tend to leave this moisture more toward the western Gulf. There are a lot of variables at play and, frankly, we won't have a good idea until this leaves the Yucatan.
In any event, no direct impact on southwest Florida is expected. However, depending on how things evolve, a deeper trough in the east could leave us with a very wet mid to late week period as whatever's left of TD1 gets pulled toward the front. More on that coming up in minutes on WINK.
Brian
