Brian: No major changes to tropical wave in central Caribbean...

Good afternoon! Some of the new forecast models are starting to come in and continue to point toward tropical moisture/tropical wave(s) remaining to our south over the next several days as a ridge of high pressure digs in over the eastern two-thirds of the country. This ridge will gradually be eroded by upper level disturbances moving through the northern tier of the country of the next seven days perhaps eventually allowing more tropical moisture to work north and west (more west than anything), but overall, we remain protected from any potential developments in the central Atlantic. In fact, our weather pattern should be a bit drier than average over the next 3, perhaps 4, afternoons.

There has been no major change to the organization of Invest 93L in the central Caribbean, located over and south of Hispanolia and Puerto Rico. Despite relatively weak wind shear over a bulk of the system, it's still not showing signs of becoming a terribly well organized system. Most of our models do suggest some slow development over the next few days as it tracks toward the west and WNW, headed toward the Yucatan Peninsula by the end of the week. The hurricane/tropical-specific models all do generally develop this into at least a tropical depression as it moves into the western Caribbean. Right now, wind shear is fairly strong in the NW Caribbean but is forecast to weaken. Beyond this, whatever becomes of Invest 93L is likely headed into the western Gulf of Mexico.

I'll have a more full update later as our new forecast models come in!

Brian