Good morning! Midday temperatures are approaching 90 degrees throughout the area with heat indicies in the upper 90's and low 100's. Dewpoints are well into the 70's, so there is plenty of moisture around for afternoon showers and storms. I expect these to develop later today along the Gulf breeze, with the highest concentration of showers and storms along the coast.
For tomorrow, slightly drier air will move in as moisture gets pulled toward what should be an intensifying Alex in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Essentially, what happens is a tremendous amount of rising air or lift will be located in the western Gulf. As a result, the air must sink somewhere and I expect that sinking motion to be in the eastern Gulf. This will work against the formation of thunderstorms tomorrow and the areal coverage of rain should be lower for tomorrow and Wednesday. Highs each day will be in the mid 90's.
By the end of the week, a front will be moving into the southeast and this should help draw moisture from Alex toward the area. I expect higher chances of rain both on Thursday and Friday with a chance of rain earlier in the day each day. By July 4th weekend, high pressure should build in and clear a lot of the tropical moisture away -- so the 4th looks like a pretty standard 4th of July with scattered afternoon storms.
Brian
