Brian: Gulf and Caribbean could be active over the next 7-10 days...

I'll have a more detailed post later, but I've been watching some of our longer range models (that run out 2-3 weeks) over the last several days and they are pointing toward enhanced upward motion/thunderstorm activity in the Caribbean and possibly the Gulf of Mexico over the next 7-10 days. We already have one wave moving through Puerto Rico and Hispanolia now (the wave we've been tracking all week from the central Atlantic) and there is an unusual amount of activity in the belt between 10 degrees north latitude and 5 degrees north latitude out in the central and eastern Atlantic (the inter-tropical convergence zone or ITCZ). Whether anything actually organizes in the Caribbean or Gulf over the next 7-10 days is a point up for debate (none of our reliable models spin up a low at this point), but the water in these areas is very warm, and wind shear is forecast to be significantly weaker/non-existent as we move into next week.

Brian