There's a very strong (for this time of year and this far out in the Atlantic) tropical wave located around 1500 miles east of the Windward Islands (the islands in the easternmost part of the Caribbean). This is usually an area we look toward for tropical development in late July and later.. not this early in the season. However, as I blogged about in this space a few days ago, the water is unusually warm in this part of the Atlantic and, for the time being, the wave is located south of an area of strong wind shear. The National Hurricane Center is giving the wave a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
If it does, what's the wave's future? It should continue to track westward but eventually run into higher wind shear as it approaches the Windward Islands and the northern part of South America. I'll have much more on this wave coming up later on this evening.
Brian
