Brian: Tropical wave becoming more well developed in central Atlantic...

I'll have a more full update on the tropical wave in the central Atlantic later today, but I wanted to post quickly to mention that it looks increasingly likely that we'll have our first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season later on today or tomorrow. This is an unusual area to look for development this time of year (see Lauren's post earlier today for a great write-up about that), but the conditions in the central and eastern Atlantic are much more like what we'd see during the peak of the hurricane season rather than during just the 3rd week!

Our season's first TD/possible tropical storm will likely be short-lived though as there is a strong area of vertical wind shear guarding the entry to the eastern Caribbean. All of our models at this point weaken whatever develops into an open wave as it approaches the Windward Islands later this week. Beyond that, if some of the wave can survive the eastern Caribbean in tact, it would enter an area more favorable for development again as it passes Puerto Rico, Hispanolia and Cuba -- as it moves toward the Bahamas. Any talk of that, though, is much too far out. In the meantime, don't be surprised if we have our first system of the season to track starting tonight at 5!

Brian