An Area of Disturbed Weather in the Tropics Breaking from June Trends

An area of disturbed weather in the eastern Atlantic has the potential to become the first tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The National Hurricane Center is giving the tropical disturbance, referred to as invest 92L, a high probability of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.

The month of June is climatologically the quietest month of hurricane season with only one tropical system developing every two years. 92L is already breaking June tropical trends as most early season systems form in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean where sea surface temperatures tend to be warmest this time of year, yet SST's in the Main Development Region for hurricanes which extends from eastern Atlantic near the west coast of Africa westward into western Caribbean were at record warm levels for the month of May.

With warm water beneath 92L and low wind shear above it, continued development is likely in the short term and the possibility of 92L strengthening into the first named storm of the season (which would be 'Alex') is real...if this occurs, it would be only the second time in history that a named storm developed in the Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the African coast during the month of June...Tropical Storm Ana in 1979 was the only system to do so.

As I stated, further development looks likely for 92L in the short term, but it's current movement to the west-northwest and a continued west-northwesterly path being projected by all forecast models will bring the area of disturbed weather into an environment of strong wind shear presently over the east-central Atlantic and eastern Caribbean thus in the long-term, continued strengthening and even survivability will be in question.

Of course we'll keep you up to date regarding any and all information pertaining to this area of disturbed weather on WINK News and winknews.com.

Have a great day,
Lauren