Brian: Tropical wave struggling against higher wind shear to its north..

The tropical wave we've been watching for the past several days looked like it was becoming more well developed earlier today. Now, in the face of increasing wind shear to its north and west, it is starting to look more ragged. The southwesterly wind shear is pushing a lot of the deep thunderstorm activity on the northern side of the system to the east of where the center of circulation is attempting to develop -- this is a problem as it keeps a lot of the moisture and heat away from the center.

The shear is forecast to increase over the next day or two as the wave moves to the west; the shear likely will be strong enough to shred the system as it approaches the Windward Islands. There is still an opportunity for this to become the season's first tropical depression, but as I mentioned earlier tonight it is running out of time as inevitably approaches the higher wind shear.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there are several waves coming off of the west coast of Africa over the next several days. This marks a very early start to the season in the central and eastern Atlantic and potentially could be yet another sign of the likely active season to come.

Brian