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We should return to an afternoon/evening timing patteren tomorrow. Meanwhile, Emily is still on track to be drawn northward by the weekend. It still looks like Emily will have very little effect on SW Florida weather. - Jim

11am: Tropical Storm Emily Update

As of 11am, Tropical Storm Emily is on the move! Winds are sustained at 50 mph and is now moving on a W/NW track at 5 mph positioned just to the south of Haiti. As Emily crosses over some rugged terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, weakening is possible. Once it moves back over warmer waters, it is expected to reintensify as it moves closer to the Bahamas by late Friday and into early Saturday morning just off the east coast of Florida. The eastern portions of Glades and Hendry counties are right on the western fringe of the cone of uncertainty, and with the "exact" path of Emily still a bit uncertain, this system still needs to be closely monitored. Next advisory from the National Hurricane Center will be out at 2pm.
-KM

Thursday's 8 AM Update on Emily

As of 8AM Tropical Storm Emily is stationary...not at all good news for Haiti and the Dominican Republic, where we are expecting a torrential amount of rainfall in the next 24 hours. Deadly flash flooding and mudslides will be a concern. As the storm moves across mountainous Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, we are expecting the storm to weaken, but as it moves across warm Caribbean water, the storm may re-strengthen. The storm has yet to make a proper northwest turn and needs to do so soon. The farther west the storm tracks, the more of a threat it becomes to the Florida coastline.

-KW

5 AM Update on Tropical Storm Emily

Tropical Storm Emily will dump 6-12" of rainfall across Haiti and the Dominican Republic today as the storm makes landfall. Isolated areas could receive 20"+, creating deadly flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous areas. Those mountains will also help weaken the storm, but we are expecting re-strengthening over the warm Caribbean waters tomorrow and Saturday. If the storm does not begin more of a northward turn soon, the threat to Florida will increase, and a watch may need to be issued for south Florida. Next update 8AM

-KW

2 AM Update on Emily

Emily's strength has changed little in the last 24 hours. The storm has sustained winds of 50 mph and is moving west at 5 mph. The storm's lack of motion will create even heavier downpours over Haiti and the Dominican Republic: 6-12" are likely with isolated areas receiving 20"+. This will create flash flooding and mudslides across the island. Some weakening is possible in the next 24-36 hours as it interacts with Hispaniola's mountainous terrain but some re-strengthening is possible when the storm moves over the Bahamas. *If a northward motion does not begin soon, the threat to Florida will increase.* Southwest Florida remains on the outskirts of the 3 day forecast cone.

-KW

TC Emily is still heading west. A turn to the north is needed soon so it won impact the Florida!

The latest from the NHC. Emily needs to start turning to the north soon.. If not the cone will be adjusted to the west.

 

 

SOME DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON...
AND DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY IN EMILY
INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KNOTS...WITH A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003 MB.  WIND SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE...BUT GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE
THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. BY THEN...EMILY SHOULD BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD BEGIN. HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET...WITH EMILY STILL MOVING
WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. SO FAR MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD
BIAS.  EVEN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS STILL REFORMS THE CYCLONE
NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS...BRINGING EMILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AND
THEN EASTERN CUBA.  AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE
NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.



--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Emily Exposed

Emily is being affected by dry air and wind shear, clearly showing an exposed center on the visible satellite. This is not how a system strengthens! The cone is still East of SW Florida. - Jim