Brian: Hot & mainly dry today, highs in the low to mid 90's..

Good morning! Another extra warm afternoon is in the forecast for southwest Florida, especially along the coast where the breeze should be offshore just about all day long. Temperatures will warm toward the mid 90's along the coast, with lower 90's near the shore of Lake Okeechobee with a slight cooling effect from the Lake. A pocket of dry air remains in place over central and south Florida, holding tight for one more day. This should limit the chance of rain to mainly far south Collier County, if anyone sees rain at all.

 

The chance of rain begins to ramp up into the weekend; first, tomorrow, isolated storms return to the forecast and more widespread activity will be around into Saturday. Another round of drier air arrives early next week with the chance of rain cut back once again.

 

In the tropics, the wave I was watching yesterday near the Windward Islands has been significantly affected by strong westerly wind shear and does not look nearly as strong this morning. I'll have more on that coming up on WINK at 5:45 am. First, today's forecast:

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 93
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Hot; High 94
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Hot; High 94
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Hot; High 94
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Hot; High 93
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Hot; High 92
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Hot; High 91
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Hot; High 92

 

Have a great Thursday!

 

Brian

HOT !

An isolated thunderstorm this evening, then partly cloudy and hot tomorrow with a heat index near 105 degrees. Isolated storms will roam the area in the afternoon and evening.  The tropics are quiet. - Jim

Brian: Tropical wave near Windward Islands

Good morning! In the satellite image above I've circled a tropical wave I'm watching, located east of the Windward Islands. Right now, it does have quite a few thunderstorms associated with it, but it is located pretty far to the south and just barely south of an area of high wind shear (highlighted on the next map, courtesy University of Wisconsin CIMMS). This wave will likely weaken at moves across the islands and into the western Caribbean later today and tomorrow. Whatever does remain of the wave as it moves into the southern Caribbean sould be steered toward Central America and not toward the Gulf of Mexico.

 

This does highlight, though, a point I made in a post yesterday -- that we are seeing a high amount of organized convection farther out in the Atlantic for so early in the season. Our forecast models indicate this may shut down for a few days though as stronger wind shear develops between 10 and 20 degrees north latitude in the Atlantic and Caribbean.

 

Brian

Brian: Hazy to start, temperatures in the 70's now.. mid 90's most spots this afternoon...

 

Brian: Much cooler start this morning, low chance of storms - mainly south - today...

Good morning! Like we talked about yesterday, we're off to a much cooler start this morning -- most notably along the coast, where we were able to return rain to yesterday afternoon. Those showers and storms that formed helped take some of the moisture out of the atmosphere, lowering the dewpoint temperature and allowing the evening temperatures to drop more than they have over the last several days. So we wake up this morning to temperatures in the low to mid 70's most spots with plenty of sun in the morning forecast.

 

This afternoon, expect just a few isolated showers and storms along the afternoon Gulf breeze in Collier County and perhaps south Lee County. Otherwise, drier air has moved in along with the new steering currents and the next couple of days should be pretty quiet. The chance of rain ramps up into the weekend, especially Saturday as some moisture moves in from the north and east.

 

Today's forecast:

Naples  Partly Cloudy  Isolated PM Storms; High 92
Bonita Springs Partly Cloudy  Mainly Dry; High 94
Fort Myers Partly Cloudy  Hot & Humid; High 94
Cape Coral Partly Cloudy  Hot & Humid; High 94
Port Charlotte Partly Cloudy  Hot & Humid; High 93
Hendry Co. Partly Cloudy  Hot & Humid; High 93
Glades Co. Partly Cloudy  Hot & Humid; High 93
DeSoto Co. Partly Cloudy  Hot & Humid; High 93

 

Have a great Wednesday!

 

Brian

A thunderstorm

There is a slightly better chance for a near coastal thunderstorm this evening.  Tomorrow will feature a mix of sun and clouds with a few coastal thunderstorms. - Jim

Brian: Loop current eddy breaking off; will help keep oil away from the FL Straits

I just found a great forecast model that illustrates what's happening now to the Gulf loop current; you can find it here. Every 6-11 months, a circular-moving pool of water - a vortex - pinches off from the Gulf loop current and gradually moves westward (this is also a warm pool of water that is watched carefully during hurricane season). As this happens, the main flow of the loop current is suppressed far to the south.. through the FL Straits and up the east coast. Effectively, the loop current cuts off into two distinct streams. As long as the loop current eddy remains south of the Gulf oil slick, it will be essentially impossible for oil to reach the main stream of the loop current and flow toward the Keys. This will not last forever, though, as eventually the eddy will move westward the loop current will become re-established to the north -- the northernmost part very close to the southern part of the oil slick.

 

Brian