Good morning! In the satellite image above I've circled a tropical wave I'm watching, located east of the Windward Islands. Right now, it does have quite a few thunderstorms associated with it, but it is located pretty far to the south and just barely south of an area of high wind shear (highlighted on the next map, courtesy University of Wisconsin CIMMS). This wave will likely weaken at moves across the islands and into the western Caribbean later today and tomorrow. Whatever does remain of the wave as it moves into the southern Caribbean sould be steered toward Central America and not toward the Gulf of Mexico.
This does highlight, though, a point I made in a post yesterday -- that we are seeing a high amount of organized convection farther out in the Atlantic for so early in the season. Our forecast models indicate this may shut down for a few days though as stronger wind shear develops between 10 and 20 degrees north latitude in the Atlantic and Caribbean.
Brian
