Increased Moisture Means the End of a "Dry" Spell

Increased moisture in the atmosphere over southwest Florida led to scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Storms should taper off around midnight or so.

As we continue through the work week our rain chances will gradually increase, especially as we keep a close eye on what will likely become our fifth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. That tropical wave is currently several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles and is forecast to track west northwestward in the coming days. We'll likely see increased moisture and storm activity from this storm towards the end of the work week and heading into next weekend.

-KW

Sultry and Mainly Dry This Weekend

First to the tropics...In the words of the National Hurricane Center, "The Don is dead." Indeed, it is. The storm produced little in the way of rainfall across drought stricken south Texas. Now, our focus turns to a wave 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. This wave will likely be our next named storm, Emily. Of course, this bears watching but is still days away from impacting any water close to the States.

To our weekend weather...hot and mainly dry with small chances for isolated showers and storms, especially after 7pm. This drier than normal pattern will continue through the beginning of the work week before better rain chances build in midweek.

-KW

Dry for the weekend, and hot!! Don gets ready to make landfall in Texas. Much needed rain for them.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DON REMAINS A SHEARED SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF
A DISORGANIZED MASS OF STRONG CONVECTION.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE MEASURED 56 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB
AND ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 46 KT WITH THE SFMR...BOTH IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 45 KT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DOPPLER WIND DISPLAYS FROM
THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN A WELL-DEFINED
MESOCYCLONE IN A STRONG CONVECTIVE CELL WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CENTER AND THE PRIMARY CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/14.  DEEP-LAYER RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR
THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI
IN THE NEXT 12 HR...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.  THIS FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK.

EVEN THOUGH THE 12 HR FORECAST POINT SHOWS WEAKENING...THERE IS
STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DON TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE IN THE FEW
HOURS REMAINING BEFORE LANDFALL.  THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND IT IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO BY 48 HR.



--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

A Hot Weekend

Afternoon temperatures will be near the mid and upper 90's both Saturday and Sunday. There will be some rain, but any rain that forms will wait until the afternoon and evening hours as the atmosphere is a little drier and warmer than average. - Jim

Drier than Normal for the Next 48 Hours

Dry air in the wake of Tropical Storm Don will minimize cloud cover and rain chances Friday and Saturday. But with fewer clouds, expect the mercury to climb into the middle 90s! Isolated activity can't be ruled out in the afternoon hours, but generally, the end of your work week and beginning of your weekend look like ideal days to hit up the beach or pool!

-KW

Tropical storm Don is staying on course with wind at 45 mph. Drier weather for us.

DON HAS A CLASSIC SHEAR PATTERN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
CENTER.  ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND FROM CIMSS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE 10-15 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CONTINUING OVER THE STORM.  IN ADDITION...A STREAM OF
ARC CLOUDS/GUSTS FRONTS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
SUGGESTS THAT DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CONVECTION.  DATA
FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOWED THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE RISING TO 1005 MB...WHILE THE AIRCRAFT WINDS
SUPPORTED AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/14.  DON REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR.  THIS SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS
COAST IN ABOUT 36 HR.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH SHIFTED NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH AND
LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  SOME ADJUSTMENT
TO THE FORECAST TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
STABILIZES AROUND A TRACK SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGAIN FORECAST MODERATE SHEAR TO CONTINUE
UNTIL DON MAKES LANDFALL.  THIS AND CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH DRY
AIR OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS LIKELY TO IMPEDE
INTENSIFICATION...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT DON WILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL STORM AND NOT AS A
HURRICANE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE LESS
STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12-24 HR DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
SHEAR AND ARC CLOUDS...THEN CALLS FOR DON TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 50 KT NEAR LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE 48 HR POINT AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY
THE 72 HR POINT.



--
Scott Zedeker
WINK TV Meteorologist

Drying Out!

Lingering moisture across Southwest Florida, will continue to give us a scattering of showers & storms throughout the afternoon and evening hours today. Now that Tropical Storm Don is pulling away to the Northwest, things will begin to dry out just a bit, especially into Friday as some drier/more stable air works its way in from the east. Isolated afternoon storms will be in the forecast tomorrow and Saturday with temperatures a bit on the hot side as they climb into the mid 90s.
-KM