Good morning! Tropical Storm Danielle is a 60 mph tropical storm this morning located about 3000 miles away from southwest Florida in the open waters of the central Atlantic. What began as a tropical depression on Saturday was upgraded to a storm yesterday and, perhaps as early as tonight, could become the second hurricane of the Atlantic season (and, down the line, possibly the first major hurricane of the season).
Danielle is currently feeling the effects of some strong easterly wind shear; all day yesterday, the center of circulation was located on the eastern side of the deepest convection. This morning's initial visible satellite images reveal a center that may be more tucked under the deep convection. If this is the case, that would likely allow for additional strengthening over the next several hours and a quicker transition to a hurricane. Either way, wind shear is expected to weaken as the storm moves west-northwest over the coming days and Danielle becoming a hurricane is virtually assured.
The steering flow right now remains dominated by a ridge of high pressure located across the Atlantic. This ridge does have a break in it just north of Danielle and this is why the storm moved northwest for a time yesterday. This weakness in the ridge is expected to fill and a general WNW track can be expected for the next few days. Beyond that, the strong trough of low pressure along the east coast now is expected to break the western periphery of the ridge enough to allow Danielle to turn northwest toward Bermuda by late week. In all likelihood, Danielle will be picked up by this trough and carried east of the United States although a few more of the "wild" model scenarios actually have Danielle turning back toward the west once it reaches the latitude of Bermuda and potentially affecting the northeast coast late next weekend/early next week. This seems exceedingly unlikely. The good news is, though, we do not expect Danielle to affect our weather at all in southwest Florida.
Elsewhere, I'm still watching the potential over the next 7 days for a tropical system to form in either the Gulf or the Atlantic along the stalled frontal boundary/trough over the southeast. Either way, our weather will be a bit unsettled over the next several days -- with wetter and cloudier than average conditions expected. It is also quite possible that a new tropical wave that is just moving off the west coast of Africa will also develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 2-4 days. However, its strength will be dictated largely by what happens with Danielle -- given the close proximity to Danielle, the stronger Danielle gets the less likely it is that this new ave will become a very significant system. It will be worth watching though!
Brian
