Good afternoon! This morning, Hurricane Earl was upgraded to a major Category 3 storm with wind at 120 mph. Over the coming days, Earl is expected to increase in intensity -- likely becoming a Category 4 storm. For now, Earl is moving to the west-northwest and, with Earl now battering the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico -- if this motion were to continue, Earl would be a storm we'd be concerned with here in southwest Florida. But, we're not. Why?
A weakness in the subtropical ridge across the western Atlantic, created in part by Hurricane Danielle, will allow Earl to begin rounding the western periphery of the high and turning more toward the northwest over the next day. This will allow Earl to pass several hundred miles to the east of southwest Florida, providing us with dry and breezy weather. However, Earl could get perilously close to the Carolinas or the Northeast coast by the end of the week.
For now, a strong high is centered over the Northeast; this high is expected to weaken and kick to the northeast over the next few days as Earl moves northwestward. If this high is slower to break down, Earl will likely get pushed farther west and could approach the Cape Hatteras, NC. If the ridge breaks down a little faster, but not fast enough, Earl could get drawn west a little farther up the coast and be a significant concern for eastern New England by Friday and Saturday. Either way, Earl will bring high surf and wind to the east coast from the Carolinas northward. At this point, though, it does appear that the high will weaken fast enough for Earl to get picked up by a trough of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes late this week. This will push Earl just to the east of the northeast coast.
Invest 97L
There is a large, well organized tropical wave located in the central Atlantic, east of Earl. This wave has been competing some with Earl's circulation (and losing) and some wind shear. Thus far, while close, this wave has not been upgraded to a tropical depression. As this system tracks westward, it will be worth watching as our models have shifted back and forth as to where its headed -- yesterday's runs brought it close to the southeastern US while today's runs take it out to sea along with Earl. Stay tuned!
Brian
