Good morning! As expected, an upper level area of low pressure is spinning east of Miami this morning with a surface low (or lows) trying to develop across south Florida. Right now, wind shear values are a bit on the high side across the eastern Gulf and through Florida, but these are forecast to weaken over the next day or two. At the same time, the upper level low east of Miami and associated surface low is expected to move into the eastern Gulf, at which time a transition toward a tropical system is possible. Bottom line: don't be surprised if there's a tropical depression or tropical storm in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday morning.
This morning, you can see all of the heavy thunderstorms in the Gulf and Florida Straits (satellite at top, radar second image). This area of thunderstorms is already exhibiting some spin (or vorticity), as seen on the third image -- notice all of the brighter yellow and orange colors spread out over Florida. Rather than being a concentrated area of spin that you would expect with a tropical cyclone, it's a more broad circulation (for now). This is forecast though to tighten as it moves into the Gulf, upper level wind becomes more favorable for development, and a supply of warm (but shallow) water is available.
Whether a tropical depression develops or not, what can we expect in southwest Florida? Essentially, the classification of this as a tropical depression or not in the next couple of days is irrelevant to our forecast. Either way, expect widespread showers and storms and lots of clouds through the area this afternoon through especially tomorrow. Both morning and afternoon rain will be likely Tuesday. By Wednesday, as the low moves away from us into the central Gulf, we'll still see more clouds and showers than usual, but the chance of rain will be dropping. By the end of the week, much drier air moves into southwest Florida.
Elsewhere in the tropics, we're finished with Colin as it winds down near and just north of Bermuda. Farther east in the Atlantic, there is an area of low pressure about a thousand miles northeast of the Leeward Islands; this area is showing signs of more organization today. While the development of a depression or storm is possible in the next day or so, this system is destined to head well out to sea -- east of Bermuda.
Have a great day!
Brian
