Until the wave moves far enough north, organization likely will be on the slower side as the cluster of thunderstorms now lacks a significant amount of spin. This is despite the fact that upper level wind is very favorable for development (wind shear is less than 10 knots, ideal) and water temperatures throughout the tropical Atlantic that are running near 2 degrees Celsius above normal. Once the wave gets a bit farther north and west, though, development is likely given the weak upper level wind, warm ocean temperatures, and lack of dry, dusty air.
The wave is generally expected to follow westerly steering currents over the next several days and late this week will likely be located near the Windward and Leeward Islands of the eastern Caribbean. Over the next few days, you likely will see several different groups of "model tracks;" generally, though, these shouldn't be considered very valid until we actually have a center of low pressure for the forecast models to "fix" on. The bottom line is, though, that this wave will bear watching over the next week to ten days as it moves to the west and west-northwest!
Elsewhere, our forecast models, coupled with global weather patterns, all continue to point toward a ramp up in the Atlantic hurricane season over the next 7-10 days. Upward motion, supporting thunderstorms, is expected to be very much favored across the Atlantic starting around August 10th and beyond; of course, this also coincides with the climatological increase in activity anyway as we head deeper into the summer. Expect the tropics to start getting quite busy as we move toward mid-month!
Brian
