Colorado State Issues Revised 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Dr. Gray, Dr. Klotzbach and their team of scientists at Colorado State University have issued their updated August forecast for the remainder of the 2010 hurricane season, and the CSU team is still predicting a very active season to occur. In fact, the forecast numbers have not been altered at all from CSU's June forecast which predicted the development of 18 named storms (10 named storms form in an average season), 10 hurricanes (6 form on average) with 5 becoming major hurricanes (average is 2). The team at CSU, have maintained their seasonal forecast from June due to the following reasons;

1. a La Nina pattern has developed which is likely to persist with moderate La Nina conditions expected to be present into the Fall...La Nina tends to reduce levels of vertical wind shear over the Atlantic...low wind shear is more conducive to tropical activity development and strengthening

2. the persistence of very warm sea surface temperatures in both the tropical and North Atlantic...current SST's in the tropical Atlantic remain at near-record warm levels

3. we are in the midst of a multi-decadal cycle of increased hurricane activity which has been in place since 1995

So far this season; Hurricane Alex formed in June making it the first Atlantic basin hurricane to form in June since 1995. Alex made landfall on the northeastern Mexican coast as a Category 2 hurricane. July saw the development of TD #2 and Tropical Storm Bonnie which made landfall at Cutler Bay, FL near Miami and brought rain and breezy conditions to SWFL. And in August Tropical Storm Colin formed in the Central Atlantic but has since dissipated to a remnant low.

Lauren