The issues I highlighted yesterday with regard to now Tropical Storm Colin remain very much in play. To emphasize, this remains a system we're not overly concerned with but any system that moves toward the northeast Caribbean is always one worth watching until we can sound the "all clear." The major forecast issue remains how strong an area of upper level low pressure will be along the east coast late this week and into the weekend. A weaker trough of low pressure would likely mean a more westerly track with Colin while a stronger area of low pressure aloft would steer Colin well east of the United States.
The pattern of the summer has generally favored strong high pressure across the western Atlantic and much of the eastern half of the United States; this would argue for a more westward track of Colin. That said, the forecast models generally are clustered well east of the United States and this is the preferred forecast at this time. However, don't be surprised if there's some shift in the models over the next couple of days back toward the south and west with Colin.
It's forward speed continues to be the major inhibition to any real strengthening -- despite weak upper level wind and very warm water temperatures, Colin remains a minimal tropical storm as of 9 AM. Colin is not expected to slow down much for the next day or two; this likely means the storm remains on the weaker sie as it heads toward the Leeward Islands later this week.
More coming later..
Brian
