Morning everyone! I'm tracking a developing area of low pressure in the Gulf this morning that will send rain, some heavy, in our direction later this afternoon. There are no ifs, ands, or buts about this one: we will see anywhere from a half inch to an inch of rain between about 2 PM and 10 PM. The good news is the low and its rain should be over on the east coast by the time we head toward late evening.. so if you have plans that will have you out and about close to midnight tonight, you should be dry!
The tricky part of today's forecast was not the rain; it's always been about the temperature. A warm front wil be moving out of the Florida Straits later this morning and, depending on which side of the front you're on, it will be either a much warmer afternoon than yesterday or only a little warmer than yesterday. Right now, all signs point to low pressure tracking near Sarasota or Tampa which should be far enough to the north to allow the warm front to push through all of SWFL. Now, it will get through Naples much earlier in the day than Arcadia.. so there will still be a wide range in temps today - from the mid 70's in parts of Collier to the mid to upper 60's in Highlands and DeSoto Counties. The reason for the farther north track of the low? Compared to yesterday's models, the upper level disturbance driving all of this is tracking farther north (in NE TX instead of over SE TX this morning).. that helps guide the warm front farther north.
Brian
