Yet another major winter storm is getting ready to hammer away at parts of the northern Middle Atlantic and Northeast as we head toward the end of the week. In fact, there's kind of an "appetizer" snow happening now across parts of New York and interior New England where a foot to a foot and a half of snow could fall through tonight. That's just the warm up act for a storm that's being sensationalized in some quarters as a "snowicane".. one that will develop later tomorrow off the Northeast coast and head toward New York City.
Several things are coming together for this storm - most notably something called the polar vortex dropping out of Canada and spinning over the eastern Great Lakes. This will allow low pressure to explode near New York City tomorrow night (pulling it inland) -- bringing heavy snow to places like Philadelphia, PA; Scranton, PA; Binghamton, NY; Rochester, NY; and Albany, NY. Meantime, because the low pulls inland, a heavy, wind-swept rain will fall over much of southern New England. By the time all is said and done, 1-3 feet of snow could fall in the area from near Philadelphia up through upstate New York and into Vermont and, on the backside of the system, a 3-6" snow is possible over eastern New England after all of the heavy rain to start. Not to mention that, with low pressure rapidly intensifying, the wind will be howling across the northeast.. with gusts above 50 mph possible.
As far as those snow totals go, keep in mind that the positioning of low pressure is key. Any change in the position by only a mere 40 or 50 miles could be the difference between a heavy rain and a heavy snow. The models are coming into better focus now, but there is still some opportunity for changes in the forecast. Either way, travel will be severely disrupted Thursday/Friday and probably into the weekend through most of the northeast!
The big thing with this storm will be the staying power of it. After a wave of heavy, thumping snow Thursday.. the upper level low will become locked in place bringing wavesf additional light to moderate snow through early in the weekend across much of the northeast. That's important for us here in SWFL. As you can see above, that pattern will force the jet stream to the south bringing back a pattern of below average temperatures to the area. We'll see highs stuck in the low 60's tomorrow.. a freeze possible inland on Friday morning.. and upper 60's by Friday afternoon. Several new disturbances will rotate around the upper low stuck over the northeast, giving us the opportunity for precipitation every couple of days through the middle of next week!
Brian
