Good morning! A lot to get to this morning in the tropics:
Hurricane Earl
Often, strong hurricanes undergo weakening and strengthening cycles and it appears that's what happened overnight with Earl. Make no mistake about it though, Earl is still a powerful storm with Category 3 125 mph wind. Earl may also be feeling the effects of some enhanced southwesterly wind shear to its north -- this wind shear may be helping some dry air located west of the storm to work into the circulation. That said, as I write this the eye is awfully impressive on satellite and it's not out of the question that Earl will make one more attempt at restrengthening back to a Category 4 before beginning a weakening trend as it approaches the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
The forecast track we've talked about the last several days essentially remains on target. Earl will get dangerously close to eastern North Carolina and, later, eastern New England. The saving grace for folks on the east coast is an upper level trough now moving through the east-central United States. This trough will erode a strong high now over the Northeast and ultimately allow Earl to bend north and then northeast -- paralleling the coast. That said, high seas and high wind is expected from the Carolinas northward with tropical storm force wind likely through eastern North Carolina north into New England along the coast. If the central US trough moves just a little bit slower, though, there is still a chance Earl could make a landfall on either eastern North Carolina or Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Right now, though, I think this is unlikely -- although Earl will get mighty close!
Tropical Storm Fiona
Fiona slowed down overnight and is now moving at less than 15 mph to the west northwest. Fiona is now affecting the very same areas Earl did just 36 hours or so ago -- the islands of the northeastern Caribbean. Fiona was moving so fast the past day or two that it had trouble gaining its own identity compared to Earl -- Earl was so strong that its outflow (sinking air) was crushing the convection attempting to develop around Fiona's center. The storms are not in as much competition this morning, though, as there nows a greater distance between the two. As a result, Fiona's wind is now up to 45 mph as of the latest advisory from the NHC.
Fiona's strength likely won't change much over the next day or two as it remains too close to Earl. If Fiona slows down, though, with environmental conditions otherwise favorable for strengthening, Fiona will begin to become more organized. Many track questions remain with Fiona: a storm moving more slowly is less likely to be able to grab onto Earl's coattails and push out to sea. In fact, I think it's entirely possible Fiona will stall for a time this weekend north/east of the Bahamas as it just misses its "train out of town" with Earl and is left behind in weak steering flow. Most likely, this stall will happen to far to the north to be of any consequence to southwest Florida though so, at this time, I don't expect Fiona to affect us. However, Fiona is worth watching over the next couple of days!
Most likely, Fiona will stall near the Bahamas before ultimately being picked up by a departing trough along the east coast early next week. If it gets missed by this trough, though, it is possible Fiona could get steered back toward the west.
Invest 98L
A strong tropical wave is located in the central Atlantic, about a thousand miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is showing increased signs of organization and, as of 8 AM, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded it to a "high chance" of development in the next 48 hours. Essentially, this wave could become our next tropical cyclone at any time. The wave will track westward under the influence of high pressure and be located still east of the Windward Islands 5 days from now; there is plenty of time to watch this wave. The hurricane models are indicating a good chance of development/strengthening with this wave while some of our other models are less than impressed with it. Stay tuned!
Brian
